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2023 Off-Season Thread

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Lions were one of most injured first half. Middle in takeaways but least turnovers
 
Seems like fairly meaningless data without context. I assume this data isn't weighted based on game situation, so a dropped pass/interception up/down 20 vs tied is going to count as the same "luck" either way.

I'd also argue some of those categories can be influenced to a certain degree. The inclusion of the fumble recovery stat seems odd to me, that can be influenced by having good awareness and is not necessarily just "luck".
 
grandy said:
Seems like fairly meaningless data without context. I assume this data isn't weighted based on game situation, so a dropped pass/interception up/down 20 vs tied is going to count as the same "luck" either way.

I'd also argue some of those categories can be influenced to a certain degree. The inclusion of the fumble recovery stat seems odd to me, that can be influenced by having good awareness and is not necessarily just "luck".
Click to expand...

Definitely no scientific data.
 
It's useful to see that even in that data, they only claim 3/4ths of a win added. If someone wanted to argue that we were more of an 8-9 team than 9-8, I can't imagine I would put it much fight. The defense was legitimately horrendous at times, and this offseason will need to address it. Get to even average on defense, and we don't need the luck.

Also, I'd bet if these numbers were run when we were 1-6, it'd say we had quite bad luck. And it's very reasonable to suspect any team going 8-2 is benefiting from some good luck.
 
Lions will add more talent and hopefully continue to execute at a high level in 2023. Top 5 offense and at least an average defense. Though the Lions last 10 games PPG defense they were well above average. So maybe that should be the bar if they add more defensive talent.

We'll see if we are lucky in health and stay healthier by a good amount than our opponents. Lions were not lucky in health the first 7 games

2023 will be an exciting year
 
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Mitchrapp said:
Definitely no scientific data.
Click to expand...

SOME of that can be controlled. Fumbles are a controllable number, to a degree. The more fumbles you produce, the more likely you are to recover. I know that ball can bounce odd ways at times, and it typically seems to always bounce AWAY from the Lions.....but we got some luck this year. No way to tell if that continues.....but I like that we are ripping it out at a higher rate.....and that is coaching.

Passes dropped can be manipulated to a degree as well. Defenders in the area. Hands in front of the ball. Receivers previously taking big shots.

Some things are luck, no doubt. But my guess is if you looked at maybe the 10 previous years of that same data, we'd be on the "unlucky" side a lot more than on the "lucky" side.
 
There was no doubt we beat Washington, at Giants, Bears, Jags, Vikings at home as we won by good margins too.

Packers game/at Bears game, Jets game was close but I wouldn't say the Lions got lucky winning those games. They earned them still by executing and getting turnovers.

And the 1-6 start the Lions were pretty injured compared to their opponents injuries so that alone was unlucky. But the backups didn't step up and the defense was atrocious and offense atrocious 2.5 games too without much weapons healthy (at Pats, at Cowboys, second half Dolphins)

Chark returned, Swift returned, Jerry Jacobs returned getting AO off the field, Cominsky/Paschal returned among others stepping up (Kerby Joseph at times, Dline later in the season, they found James Houston late)

Lions made it happen and now need to do it again with a little more
 
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