A Case for Keeping Porcello

[zonietigerfan]

I'd think long and hard on trading him. Sure, if we could get a solid SS I'd be all in. Not likely to happen. There are several factors we should consider before sending Ricky Ticky Tack Porcello off to Pittsburgh, Texas or wherever...
1) 23 is a magic number here. If he were, say, 27 or older I'd be more certain, but young pitchers with a decent if not all-star history can & often do develop.
2) His velocity is improving.
3) Yeah, we have JV, DF, Scherzer, AS and Smyly, but...for the entire year? We can't put RP in the bullpen for long relief and a monthly spot start, awaiting the inevitable injury, 'tired arm' or whatever? I'd say that's a great place for him, for now. AND, if he shows a great deal of improvement &/or Doug or Scherzer sputter....move him into the rotation and put the other guy(s) in the 'pen for long relief temporarely. Remember, it wasn't long ago Scherzer was sent back to Toledo for some work. Nice to be able to slot a guy like Rick back in.
4) Rick's athleticism and hitting may be needed in IL games.
5) Appears that RP is only really, really desired if accompanied by another young phenom: Garcia is often mentioned. Forget it.

OK, that's my take. Yeah, he's probably headed out the door. Just remember: It was only 3 years ago he was THE ace...THE ace not old enough to drink. Now, he's like...washed up? Regressed...for good? I don't think so. He may not come back to bite us in the ass like Smoltz did, but who's to say he couldn't?

Think long and hard on this one, DD. The old adage of 'when in doubt...don't' may well be applicable.

 

[kalinecountry]

Dave/ZonieTigerFan,
I posted this in the Sanchez wants 6 years at $90M regarding the idea of keeping Porcello.
But no one commented on it as either dumb or the reasons to move him quoting my post.

Just heard it on XM radio on the way to getting my DD's coffee.

Like most every signing this off season, seems to be more than what was the anticipated and going rate for pitchers and positional, even the platoon players with 2/3 year deals for more than past.

and the more I think about, sure now we have a future HOF starter, and 3 top starters, and either Porcello or Smyly.
The thing is, most every team has some sort of problem, injury and having to fill in for their starters every year.
Look at the Tigers in 2012, Fister missing time, and Scherzer missing time.
Having/Keeping both Porcello and Smyly gives some flexibility and insurance if or when one of the pitchers misses some starts. With Rick, the devil we know is better than the one we don't.....insert AA AAA callup. Crosby/Wilk type starter....
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/pi...detroit-tigers Tigers starters for 2012.
122 starters games started? starts from JV, Max, Fister, Rick.
and if they decide to trade him, I hope it's in a package to fill other needs, such as a Rick, Boesch, Peralta for the righty bat for leftfield and the shortstop that has much better range and sprays the ball around when batting. jmo.

At this point in time, Porcello's trade stock is low. I would say it isn't or wouldn't be the worst thing to keep him as an extra starter, long relief, bullpen, a couple of bloggers said as much to have him close, although I wouldn't do that.

oh well....

 

[kingofdetroit57]

I'm not against holding on to him if we can't get a good and immediate return. I'm sure he'd have lots of trade value at the deadline too when contenders are hunting for pitching and losers are selling off stars.

I definitely wouldn't mind seeing him traded for an upgrade at SS either though.

I heard Pat Caputo comparing Porcello to Halladay earlier and whining how we can't trade him because he could be on the verge of becoming Halladay v2.0. I'm sorry, I just don't see it.

 

[mhughes0021]

How many times did he pitch in the playoffs? Thats why you dont keep him. He has value and we dont need it or use it...so trade him for something we do need.

 

[Thumb]

Porcello definitely has value, and I'd hate to see him go without getting something significant in return.

That said, I think Smyly has an edge on the 5th spot because he's a lefty.

And I also believe Porcello can become a solid, and dependable starter, but I think for that to happen he needs to be rebuilt in another system, he needs a team that wants him and truly believes in him, because I think the message he's getting here now is, "Thanks for 2009, but what have you done for me lately".

I feel there is a team out there that wants Rick, and will offer up something acceptable in exchange.

 

[kalinecountry]

Thanks guys, I was thinking to keep him for one more year, just to see how he did, scrapping his hittable slider and see if he can build a bit more stamina,
but yeah hope you all are right if he is traded to get something that will help in return at a position of need.....which would maybe show more in a multi player trade.

 

[byco42]

Porcello needs a better defense (infield) than the Tigers' can provide him. It's an infield that plays very effectively behind pitchers who have high K/9 rates. Half of the balls hit off Porcello are GBs.

 

[Mitchrapp]

My view is that our 1 through 4 are going to be here for awhile and Porcello has some good trade value. Perfect time to make a trade. I think we could fetch a starting RF for him or a really good BP arm. If you can't might as well keep him.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Porcello needs a better defense (infield) than the Tigers' can provide him. It's an infield that plays very effectively behind pitchers who have high K/9 rates. Half of the balls hit off Porcello are GBs.

Much more than half, 58%.

 

[byco42]

Much more than half, 58%.

Okay, Girolamo Cardano, but Fangraphs says Porcello's Batted-Ball GB% is 52.3. It extends the decimal no further than that, unfortunately.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I don't know who that is. I just saw 58 once so I went with it.

 

[byco42]

I don't know who that is. I just saw 58 once so I went with it.

Girolamo Cardano is the Father of Probability.

 

[turok]

Irony would be trading Porcello for a more defensively skilled SS, who would be exactly what he needs on the IF as a GB-inducing pitcher.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

The 2014 free agent class is weak for LF and SS. Trading or developing talent (unlikely for SS since there isn't anybody currently in the system that I'm aware of) is probably the only realistic way to improve at either spot.

Shortstops

Clint Barmes (35)
Willie Bloomquist (36)
Jamey Carroll (40) - $2MM vesting option with a $250K buyout
Alexi Casilla (29) -$3MM club option with $200K buyout
Yunel Escobar (31) - $5MM club option
Rafael Furcal (36)
Derek Jeter (40) - $8MM+ player option with a $3MM buyout
John McDonald (39)
Jhonny Peralta (32)
Omar Quintanilla (31)
Brendan Ryan (32)


Left fielders

Jason Bay (35)
Reed Johnson (37) - $1.6MM club option with a $150K buyout
Jason Kubel (32) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Nate McLouth (32)
Mike Morse (32)
David Murphy (32)
Xavier Nady (35)
Laynce Nix (33)
Martin Prado (30)
Ryan Raburn (33)


If we could keep one of Castellanos or Garcia, we could have our corner outfielder of the future. With Garcia being the one who got the playoff roster spot and is close with Miggy, and Castellanos being displaced by Miggy and learning a new and less valuable spot in the outfield, and being the more coveted guy by other teams, I think he could be the one who goes.

 

[zonietigerfan]

For some reason I feel trading Peralta to some NL club that needs a 3rd baseman makes more sense than ditching Porcello. I like Jhonny but if the guy doesn't hit for decent avg and some pop (meaning: over 20 HRs), he's essentially useless. Yes, his arm is accurate, he's a silent good guy type, and...he hits into a boat-load of DPs and is more often than not a rally killer. Now that I've said this, I fully expect DD to keep him another year. Geesh...if only he didn't kill us by ending threats via the DP...I can live with him if he learns to hit and run better and if we get some speed in front of him (meaning: have him bat like 8th or 9th when someone other than Martinez or Miggy are on the basepaths); when he's batting 6th you can count on several dozen 6-4-3's a season.

 

[Thumb]

Irony would be trading Porcello for a more defensively skilled SS, who would be exactly what he needs on the IF as a GB-inducing pitcher.

Except a better SS would benefit the whole pitching staff, not just Porcello.

Plus a SS is an everyday player, not every 5 days.

Although I think Porcello's value is not quite what some think it is, as I don't think he would return a starting quality OF or SS, at least nothing better than Peralta at SS and Dirks/??? platoon in LF.

But he could certainly get us a BP arm and a couple of mid level prospects, which would he huge because we need to restock the farm, one way or another.

 

[tomdalton22]

I don't think Porcello is anything special but I think he has some value. The Tigers still have several holes in the BP and their bench is terrible. Even if he gets you a good young BP arm and two very good bench type players I think the trade is worth it.

 

[kalinecountry]

The 2014 free agent class is weak for LF and SS. Trading or developing talent (unlikely for SS since there isn't anybody currently in the system that I'm aware of) is probably the only realistic way to improve at either spot.

Shortstops

Clint Barmes (35)
Willie Bloomquist (36)
Jamey Carroll (40) - $2MM vesting option with a $250K buyout
Alexi Casilla (29) -$3MM club option with $200K buyout
Yunel Escobar (31) - $5MM club option
Rafael Furcal (36)
Derek Jeter (40) - $8MM+ player option with a $3MM buyout
John McDonald (39)
Jhonny Peralta (32)
Omar Quintanilla (31)
Brendan Ryan (32)


Left fielders

Jason Bay (35)
Reed Johnson (37) - $1.6MM club option with a $150K buyout
Jason Kubel (32) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Nate McLouth (32)
Mike Morse (32)
David Murphy (32)
Xavier Nady (35)
Laynce Nix (33)
Martin Prado (30)
Ryan Raburn (33)


If we could keep one of Castellanos or Garcia, we could have our corner outfielder of the future. With Garcia being the one who got the playoff roster spot and is close with Miggy, and Castellanos being displaced by Miggy and learning a new and less valuable spot in the outfield, and being the more coveted guy by other teams, I think he could be the one who goes.

Only two players on the two lists I would like;
Brendan Ryan for his infield defense, offensively, Ray Oyler and Eddie Brinkman say hi,
or Martin Prado, .....but trading with the braves, always going to be fearful of the Tigers getting bent over for a pitcher that will turnout to be good.

 

[zonietigerfan]

Only two players on the two lists I would like;
Brendan Ryan for his infield defense, offensively, Ray Oyler and Eddie Brinkman say hi,
or Martin Prado, .....but trading with the braves, always going to be fearful of the Tigers getting bent over for a pitcher that will turnout to be good.

Oh gosh yes, KC, stay away from Atlanta. Say to say it, but when J J started to look like Smoltz II I began to panic. Don't wish injuries on anyone at all, but seeing as he was on the DL a good portion of the past couple years; let's just say I'm not all bent out of shape seeing the Braves come up a tad short on that trade & leave it at that.

 

[mjsb2]

Oh gosh yes, KC, stay away from Atlanta. Say to say it, but when J J started to look like Smoltz II I began to panic. Don't wish injuries on anyone at all, but seeing as he was on the DL a good portion of the past couple years; let's just say I'm not all bent out of shape seeing the Braves come up a tad short on that trade & leave it at that.

Jurrjens was never more than a mediocre starter, even without the injuries.