A Case for Keeping Porcello

[kingofdetroit57]

Jurrjens was never more than a mediocre starter, even without the injuries.

Excluding last year, he was 50-33 w/ a 3.77ERA and 1.22WHIP. That's better than 3/5ths of our starting rotation (Scherzer, Sanchez, or Porcello) which most would say is the best in baseball right now. Yup, pretty mediocre. LOL!

 

[turok]

Excluding last year, he was 50-33 w/ a 3.77ERA and 1.22WHIP. That's better than 3/5ths of our starting rotation (Scherzer, Sanchez, or Porcello) which most would say is the best in baseball right now. Yup, pretty mediocre. LOL!

Yeah when Jurrjens wasn't injured, he pitched very well IMO, his '09 season (1.21 WHIP, 2.60 ERA) was his best and especially during Jair's first half of the '11 season I remember that he was near the top in many NL pitching stats and then was selected for and pitched in the ASG. Its been pretty much downhill ever since, but his skills and talent really aren't to blame.

 

[mjsb2]

Excluding last year, he was 50-33 w/ a 3.77ERA and 1.22WHIP. That's better than 3/5ths of our starting rotation (Scherzer, Sanchez, or Porcello) which most would say is the best in baseball right now. Yup, pretty mediocre. LOL!

Better than Porcello, not Scherzer or Sanchez.

 

[biggunsbob]

Rick has 48 wins in four years.. That is 12 wins a season... If he averages 12 wins a season for the next 17 years until he is forty that will be 204 more wins added on to his already 48 giving him 252 wins as a Tiger... Now he does average 10 losses a season so in the end he will be at 212 losses for a 252-212 record...I know wins suck as a stat but lets give him one more year to figure it all out... Crap he turns 25 in December... He has to pitch till he is 41 now..

 

[Rebbiv]

He turns 24 in this month.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Its not really about more time, Bob. Its about the range of the IF and total defense. Plus, if we can get something for him, it makes sense. Our top 4 guys are going to be here for awhile so Porcello really isn't needed. And if they want Smyly as their 5th then Rick isn't needed at all and not worth keeping for an ocassinal spot start.

 

[zonietigerfan]

Its not really about more time, Bob. Its about the range of the IF and total defense. Plus, if we can get something for him, it makes sense. Our top 4 guys are going to be here for awhile so Porcello really isn't needed. And if they want Smyly as their 5th then Rick isn't needed at all and not worth keeping for an ocassinal spot start.

Granted all that is true, Mitch, and certainly the Freep agrees with you: http://www.freep.com/article/20121218/COL38/312180131/?odyssey=tab|mostpopular|text|FRONTPAGE

...but, as was noted in the article, someone else has to make a real good offer, else DD may well keep Rick. If you read the comments, you'll see that a couple of arguments concerning the possible health problems of our current SPs was, just this past year, a very real problem. Anyone counting on DF, Scherzer, Smyly and Sanchez to be the the bull JV is just hasn't been paying attention. Agreed that RP is probably gone, but we gotta get value in return.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Of course they need to get something of value.

 

[zonietigerfan]

Of course they need to get something of value.

Sorry, I'm also a Lions and Pistons fan and what you note hasn't always held: Billups for Iverson, etc., etc.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Sorry, I'm also a Lions and Pistons fan and what you note hasn't always held: Billups for Iverson, etc., etc.

I'm not sure how that equates? I didn't say they always get value, I sad Porcello needs to get value.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

Better than Porcello, not Scherzer or Sanchez.

Record, ERA, and WHIP would disagree with that assessment.

I'd definitely take Scherzer or Sanchez over him going forward, but his stats before his terrible year last year were better than the three I said.

 

[Rebbiv]

Record, ERA, and WHIP would disagree with that assessment.

I'd definitely take Scherzer or Sanchez over him going forward, but his stats before his terrible year last year were better than the three I said.

2009-2011 Away

Fister 73.78 RC/650 3.65 xFIP

Jurrjens 77.05 RC/650 3.92 xFIP

Porcello 78.60 RC/650 4.04 xFIP

A. Sanchez 79.00 RC/650 3.77 xFIP

Scherzer 82.10 RC/650 3.88 xFIP

MLB Average = 79.57 RC/650 3.93 xFIP


ERA, WHIP and Wins are stats that do not show much. Linear Wieghts (RC/650) and xFIP can be predictive stats (more so than ERA and WHIP). With injury, I personally would not put Jurrjens ahead of even Porcello.

On a team without 3-4 good starters, Jurrjens would be worth a gamble. For DET, especially because they would to make room for him on the 40-man roster (unless he signed a minor league contract), signing him would not make much sense. There is a reason he was non-tendered by Atlanta.