#2 for me. There is always a chance but I wouldn't put any money on it at this point. They have a lot of holes to fill in their starting rotation. They only had 4 pitchers throw more than 100 innings and 3 of them won't, or shouldn't, be back (Rodriguez, Lorenzen, Wentz).
I voted 2, there's a chance they could get in the playoffs. Still much to do to make the team a perennial contender.