Ausmus to be back next year.

[kalinecountry]

Neil Weinberg's New English D Tigers Blog take on it. A must read.
http://newenglishd.com/2015/09/26/al-avila-fails-his-first-test/
Al Avila Fails His First Test.

 

[LGRW_9]

This is terribly disappointing on so many levels. But my takeaway on this is that the Tigers front office just sent us a very clear message about next year. That message is that they don't feel they have the ability or means to transform this roster to playoff contention this offseason, so we're not going to waste the $$ on a new manager. Why drop a new engine into a rusted out Ford Pinto.

I only hope this "attitude" doesn't stretch beyond 2016.

 

[Rebbiv]

Neil Weinberg's New English D Tigers Blog take on it. A must read.
http://newenglishd.com/2015/09/26/al-avila-fails-his-first-test/
Al Avila Fails His First Test.

Great read. These paragraphs are the most telling to me:


When Ausmus first got to Detroit, there was a sense he was going to make the club more aggressive on the bases. Some of that was roster-based, but a lot of it was his tendency to push the envelope. That?s acceptable to a point, but the Tigers were really bad at it. Horrible, even. They made bone-headed play after bone-headed play, costing themselves countless outs (you could count them, actually, I was just too lazy to actually do it when writing that sentence and now I?ve taken longer to write this explanation that it would have taken me to look it up).

Now, Ausmus can?t use mind control and prevent his players from making bad decisions all the time. But at a certain point, it was his job to tell them to knock it off. Fewer steal signs? More red lights? Coaching about when to run? All of the above were needed, even if we don?t know how much was active mistakes by Ausmus or mere negligence.




We all want the Tigers to win and they aren't going to win 162 games. Losing a games when the other team outplays you happens. Losing games because of stupidity and not playing smart baseball is just plain inexcusable and is CORRECTABLE.

 

[tomdalton22]

this is going to be a bad baseball team for at least 2-3 years. With their current roster which includes bloated salaries for aging players combined with a shitty farm system...it could be 5-7 years before they sniff the playoffs again! They should probably blow this thing up this off season and shoot for 2-3 years.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

We all want the Tigers to win and they aren't going to win 162 games. Losing a games when the other team outplays you happens. Losing games because of stupidity and not playing smart baseball is just plain inexcusable and is CORRECTABLE.

Exactly! This team has made bad, inexcusable, and correctable mistakes at an alarming pace since Ausmus took over. They say managers make little difference (3-4 games max, from what many say), but I think Ausmus has cost us at least twice that many in each of his two seasons here. He's done nothing in my view to make me think he deserves not to be fired. I don't get the sudden show of faith in Ausmus, but I'm not going to cry over it. There's a good chance he won't make it past next year unless he drastically improves and the team seriously contends.

The Avila Era is young, but so far, I'm not impressed.

 

[Rebbiv]

Exactly! This team has made bad, inexcusable, and correctable mistakes at an alarming pace since Ausmus took over. They say managers make little difference (3-4 games max, from what many say), but I think Ausmus has cost us at least twice that many in each of his two seasons here. He's done nothing in my view to make me think he deserves not to be fired. I don't get the sudden show of faith in Ausmus, but I'm not going to cry over it. There's a good chance he won't make it past next year unless he drastically improves and the team seriously contends.

The Avila Era is young, but so far, I'm not impressed.

This team is further away from contending then they are. There are too many holes\question marks in this team that needs to be addressed before this team can contend. For whatever reason, changing managers isn't going to change that fact. So, because of the financial commitment alone, it makes sense to have Ausmus and his staff be the scapegoats for 2016. Not that I agree with it, just that from a financial standpoint it makes sense.

1. Catcher. McCann cannot hit RHP nor away from Comerica. His game calling/pitch framing is questionable. After starting the season throwing out 13 of the first 26 base stealers (50.0), he has been slightly above average (31.5%) at 14 of 42 (33.3%). As a rookie catcher, teams were probably testing him early.

2. 3B. Castellanos is still Castellanos. He hasn't improved. The recent uptick was due to seeing more week LHP during that timeframe. He still cannot field. He cannot hit RHP and he cannot hit away from Comerica.

3. LF and CF. We have NO acceptable options right now for LF or CF. Gose is a complete bust. Collins is the only one I would go with, and that is by choosing the lesser of all evils.

4. No bullpen. After Hardy and possibly Wilson, who else will be there in 2016? Verhagen probably. Farmer maybe. Closer?

5. Starting Pitching. After Verlander, all I see is question marks. Yes there are some young arms. But they will certainly need to take huge steps for DET to contend.

6. Which V-Mart will show in 2016?

7. Will Iggy stay healthy and can he continue to hit?

So. bottom line, after Cabrera, J.D., Kinsler and Verlander, the rest of the team is question marks or overhyped. Cabrera, Kinsler and Verlander are all on the other side of 32. Meaning their peak seasons are behind them. Payroll will still be an issue with this team. So "buying" players isn't necessarily a good option.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

This team is further away from contending then they are. There are too many holes\question marks in this team that needs to be addressed before this team can contend. For whatever reason, changing managers isn't going to change that fact. So, because of the financial commitment alone, it makes sense to have Ausmus and his staff be the scapegoats for 2016. Not that I agree with it, just that from a financial standpoint it makes sense.

1. Catcher. McCann cannot hit RHP nor away from Comerica. His game calling/pitch framing is questionable. After starting the season throwing out 13 of the first 26 base stealers (50.0), he has been slightly above average (31.5%) at 14 of 42 (33.3%). As a rookie catcher, teams were probably testing him early.

2. 3B. Castellanos is still Castellanos. He hasn't improved. The recent uptick was due to seeing more week LHP during that timeframe. He still cannot field. He cannot hit RHP and he cannot hit away from Comerica.

3. LF and CF. We have NO acceptable options right now for LF or CF. Gose is a complete bust. Collins is the only one I would go with, and that is by choosing the lesser of all evils.

4. No bullpen. After Hardy and possibly Wilson, who else will be there in 2016? Verhagen probably. Farmer maybe. Closer?

5. Starting Pitching. After Verlander, all I see is question marks. Yes there are some young arms. But they will certainly need to take huge steps for DET to contend.

6. Which V-Mart will show in 2016?

7. Will Iggy stay healthy and can he continue to hit?

So. bottom line, after Cabrera, J.D., Kinsler and Verlander, the rest of the team is question marks or overhyped. Cabrera, Kinsler and Verlander are all on the other side of 32. Meaning their peak seasons are behind them. Payroll will still be an issue with this team. So "buying" players isn't necessarily a good option.

I don't disagree, but I still think we have a very good core coming back and we were "unlucky" injury-wise with that core this year. If the Tigers spend on a starter or two, a couple of the young pitchers pans out in the rotation and for the bullpen, they shore up the pen, and the core is healthier next season, we should contend. Lots of areas that could go south, but it isn't beyond reason to think that it could happen. We still have a 3-4-5 of Miggy, VMart, and JD, and JV looks like a front of the rotation starter once again. That's a decent starting point for any team.

 

[tomdalton22]

This team is further away from contending then they are. There are too many holes\question marks in this team that needs to be addressed before this team can contend. For whatever reason, changing managers isn't going to change that fact. So, because of the financial commitment alone, it makes sense to have Ausmus and his staff be the scapegoats for 2016. Not that I agree with it, just that from a financial standpoint it makes sense.

1. Catcher. McCann cannot hit RHP nor away from Comerica. His game calling/pitch framing is questionable. After starting the season throwing out 13 of the first 26 base stealers (50.0), he has been slightly above average (31.5%) at 14 of 42 (33.3%). As a rookie catcher, teams were probably testing him early.

2. 3B. Castellanos is still Castellanos. He hasn't improved. The recent uptick was due to seeing more week LHP during that timeframe. He still cannot field. He cannot hit RHP and he cannot hit away from Comerica.

3. LF and CF. We have NO acceptable options right now for LF or CF. Gose is a complete bust. Collins is the only one I would go with, and that is by choosing the lesser of all evils.

4. No bullpen. After Hardy and possibly Wilson, who else will be there in 2016? Verhagen probably. Farmer maybe. Closer?

5. Starting Pitching. After Verlander, all I see is question marks. Yes there are some young arms. But they will certainly need to take huge steps for DET to contend.

6. Which V-Mart will show in 2016?

7. Will Iggy stay healthy and can he continue to hit?

So. bottom line, after Cabrera, J.D., Kinsler and Verlander, the rest of the team is question marks or overhyped. Cabrera, Kinsler and Verlander are all on the other side of 32. Meaning their peak seasons are behind them. Payroll will still be an issue with this team. So "buying" players isn't necessarily a good option.

I don't know the answer but one option would be to trade Miggy and/or JD. Trading Miggy would probably infuriate most of the fan base but that could possibly fix a lot of the problems. I know JD is cheap and a good power bat but he could get a lot in return and he will be one a very high payroll player before the team gets better.

I doubt either happens. My guess...this team won't win the division again as long as they have JV and Miggy on the payroll.

 

[Rebbiv]

I don't know the answer but one option would be to trade Miggy and/or JD. Trading Miggy would probably infuriate most of the fan base but that could possibly fix a lot of the problems. I know JD is cheap and a good power bat but he could get a lot in return and he will be one a very high payroll player before the team gets better.

I doubt either happens. My guess...this team won't win the division again as long as they have JV and Miggy on the payroll.

I would have no problem using J.D. as a trade. His return would net the most. He is going to get a huge spike in arbitration. DET is in no position to "buy out" his arbitration years. Some other team can and would if the deal was right.

I disagree about no winning if JV and Miggy are on the payroll. It still can happen, but not if they keep trading away their cost controlled prospects (Suarez, Travis) for garbage. Even the Fister trade netted what?

 

[tomdalton22]

I would have no problem using J.D. as a trade. His return would net the most. He is going to get a huge spike in arbitration. DET is in no position to "buy out" his arbitration years. Some other team can and would if the deal was right.

I disagree about no winning if JV and Miggy are on the payroll. It still can happen, but not if they keep trading away their cost controlled prospects (Suarez, Travis) for garbage. Even the Fister trade netted what?

you are right about no winning...there is a chance but they would have to hit on some young players at an uncommon rate. With the current state of the farm system the odds are unlikely.

 

[Rebbiv]

I don't disagree, but I still think we have a very good core coming back and we were "unlucky" injury-wise with that core this year. If the Tigers spend on a starter or two, a couple of the young pitchers pans out in the rotation and for the bullpen, they shore up the pen, and the core is healthier next season, we should contend. Lots of areas that could go south, but it isn't beyond reason to think that it could happen. We still have a 3-4-5 of Miggy, VMart, and JD, and JV looks like a front of the rotation starter once again. That's a decent starting point for any team.

The Tigers were not "unlucky", they experienced what most teams experience, injuries. The issue is they do not have replacement level talent in the minors when that happens.

No one made them sign Randy Wolf or Neftali Feliz. That Marc Krauss signing really worked well.


Free Agents = Rajai Davis, Alex Avila, Alfredo Simon, Randy Wolf, Tom Gorzelanny. Avila will be missed the most, IMHO.

Arbitration = J.D., Feliz, Alburquerque, Iglesias, Romine and J. Wilson.

My guess is that Feliz, Romine and Josh Wilson aren't offered arbitration. Machado becomes the middle infield replacement.

Even if the young starters work out. Where is the offense? CF, LF, 3B and C are black holes with a Righthanded pitcher or when on the road. Aside from Cabrera, after Avila is gone, we have nothing but hackers. This team is not going to wear down opposing aces with a bunch of hackers.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

The Tigers were not "unlucky", they experienced what most teams experience, injuries. The issue is they do not have replacement level talent in the minors when that happens.

No one made them sign Randy Wolf or Neftali Feliz. That Marc Krauss signing really worked well.


Free Agents = Rajai Davis, Alex Avila, Alfredo Simon, Randy Wolf, Tom Gorzelanny. Avila will be missed the most, IMHO.

Arbitration = J.D., Feliz, Alburquerque, Iglesias, Romine and J. Wilson.

My guess is that Feliz, Romine and Josh Wilson aren't offered arbitration. Machado becomes the middle infield replacement.

Even if the young starters work out. Where is the offense? CF, LF, 3B and C are black holes with a Righthanded pitcher or when on the road. Aside from Cabrera, after Avila is gone, we have nothing but hackers. This team is not going to wear down opposing aces with a bunch of hackers.

Agree to disagree on the injuries. I'm saying losing Miggy, VMart, JV, Iglesias, Sanchez, Rondon, and Nathan for significant portions of the year was abnormal and "unlucky". I agree on the bench/minors, but no team could have sustained the losses mentioned above. We just trotted out stinkier trash than most others would have.

 

[tomdalton22]

Agree to disagree on the injuries. I'm saying losing Miggy, VMart, JV, Iglesias, Sanchez, Rondon, and Nathan for significant portions of the year was abnormal and "unlucky". I agree on the bench/minors, but no team could have sustained the losses mentioned above. We just trotted out stinkier trash than most others would have.

Losing Nathan - lucky

V-Mart, Miggy & JV...all are aging players so it isn't surprising that they all missed time. The amount of time. The part that sucked about JV and V-Mart was they were so ineffective for such a long period of time. Not sure if JV was ready when he came back up.

Sanchez...no surprise. He can never stay healthy!

 

[kingofdetroit57]

Losing Nathan - lucky

V-Mart, Miggy & JV...all are aging players so it isn't surprising that they all missed time. The amount of time. The part that sucked about JV and V-Mart was they were so ineffective for such a long period of time. Not sure if JV was ready when he came back up.

Sanchez...no surprise. He can never stay healthy!

In regards to "luck", my point wasn't necessarily that we experienced an abnormal amount of DL days (maybe we did, maybe we didn't, don't know), but rather who the DL days came from. I'd expect a more normal distribution of injuries between stars, average players, and dud players, which we didn't really get.

 

[Rebbiv]

Agree to disagree on the injuries. I'm saying losing Miggy, VMart, JV, Iglesias, Sanchez, Rondon, and Nathan for significant portions of the year was abnormal and "unlucky". I agree on the bench/minors, but no team could have sustained the losses mentioned above. We just trotted out stinkier trash than most others would have.

Rondon and Nathan weren't going to help this team. And why no mention of Alex Avila? Or even Kyle Lobstein? Their absence were more of an issue.


The Cardinals have had Holiday, Garcia, Lynn, Wainwright, Jay, Belisle and Adams on the DL. Yet, they have the best record. However, now it appears Yadier Molina is out, which can effect their playoffs.

Sometimes, teams win because they are lucky not to have any injuries to key players (KCR). Sometimes, teams lose key players (2014 TEX) and rebound the next year (2015 TEX).


The Mets are winning this year, without David Wright for most of the season and Zach Wheeler. Parnell, Gee, d'Arnaud, Daniel Murphy, Duda, and Cuddyer have spent time on the DL.


While some teams can weather the storm, DET hasn't. DET was last in 1st place on May 16th. Since then, they have been the worst team in the AL by 3 games on OAK. That isn't weathering the storm, that is total collapse. Luck has nothing to do with not having replacement level players in the minors. When you have to sign or trade for players like Wolf, Krauss and Feliz, luck is what you are hoping for.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

Rondon and Nathan weren't going to help this team. And why no mention of Alex Avila? Or even Kyle Lobstein? Their absence were more of an issue.


The Cardinals have had Holiday, Garcia, Lynn, Wainwright, Jay, Belisle and Adams on the DL. Yet, they have the best record. However, now it appears Yadier Molina is out, which can effect their playoffs.

Sometimes, teams win because they are lucky not to have any injuries to key players (KCR). Sometimes, teams lose key players (2014 TEX) and rebound the next year (2015 TEX).


The Mets are winning this year, without David Wright for most of the season and Zach Wheeler. Parnell, Gee, d'Arnaud, Daniel Murphy, Duda, and Cuddyer have spent time on the DL.


While some teams can weather the storm, DET hasn't. DET was last in 1st place on May 16th. Since then, they have been the worst team in the AL by 3 games on OAK. That isn't weathering the storm, that is total collapse. Luck has nothing to do with not having replacement level players in the minors. When you have to sign or trade for players like Wolf, Krauss and Feliz, luck is what you are hoping for.

Losing your expected closer and 7th inning guy is a problem regardless of how good they may or may not be.

I didn't mention Avila or Lobstein because I honestly forgot and because my response wasn't supposed to be taken as a comprehensive listing. You could say Greene going down early was another major blow.

I agree with your other statements, but if anybody thought that losing Nathan, JV, Rondon, Greene, VMart, Miggy, Lobstein, and others for extended stretches wasn't a major reason for this team sucking, they are crazy. We basically lost 2/3 of our back end bullpen, 3/5 of the starting rotation, and our 3-4 hitters for months of this season. It is just way too much of the core talent going down to overcome.

 

[Rebbiv]

Losing your expected closer and 7th inning guy is a problem regardless of how good they may or may not be.

I didn't mention Avila or Lobstein because I honestly forgot and because my response wasn't supposed to be taken as a comprehensive listing. You could say Greene going down early was another major blow.

I agree with your other statements, but if anybody thought that losing Nathan, JV, Rondon, Greene, VMart, Miggy, Lobstein, and others for extended stretches wasn't a major reason for this team sucking, they are crazy. We basically lost 2/3 of our back end bullpen, 3/5 of the starting rotation, and our 3-4 hitters for months of this season. It is just way too much of the core talent going down to overcome.

There was concerns for this team before the season began by some of us. Expecting anything great from Nathan and Rondon was folly. There was concerns concerning Simon and Greene before the season began and the scouting reports about their issues with repeating their deliveries.

We played above level in April and early May. We may never know what this team would have done without the injuries or to the degree they had. In my opinion, they still don't make the playoffs, even if they keep Price and Cespedes. And given general good health in 2016, without luck, they are not a playoff caliber team.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

There was concerns for this team before the season began by some of us. Expecting anything great from Nathan and Rondon was folly. There was concerns concerning Simon and Greene before the season began and the scouting reports about their issues with repeating their deliveries.

We played above level in April and early May. We may never know what this team would have done without the injuries or to the degree they had. In my opinion, they still don't make the playoffs, even if they keep Price and Cespedes. And given general good health in 2016, without luck, they are not a playoff caliber team.

I agree with all that, but I think you are taking it a step too far in saying that the Nathan and Rondon injuries didn't hurt us because those particular players weren't all that great. I guess it's somewhat of a chicken vs. egg question in regards to the injuries vs. depth being more of the concern, but there is only so much you can reasonably work around injury-wise and this team exceeded that by a wide margin.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I don't disagree, but I still think we have a very good core coming back and we were "unlucky" injury-wise with that core this year. If the Tigers spend on a starter or two, a couple of the young pitchers pans out in the rotation and for the bullpen, they shore up the pen, and the core is healthier next season, we should contend. Lots of areas that could go south, but it isn't beyond reason to think that it could happen. We still have a 3-4-5 of Miggy, VMart, and JD, and JV looks like a front of the rotation starter once again. That's a decent starting point for any team.

It's not enough as seen by how we've played. The core is also getting older and more important the pitching stinks. STINKS!!

 

[Mitchrapp]

I agree with all that, but I think you are taking it a step too far in saying that the Nathan and Rondon injuries didn't hurt us because those particular players weren't all that great. I guess it's somewhat of a chicken vs. egg question in regards to the injuries vs. depth being more of the concern, but there is only so much you can reasonably work around injury-wise and this team exceeded that by a wide margin.

Nathan injury? That helped us.. We got Soria to close.