Bill Connelly has Michigan #5 in a new resume metric

[Gulo Blue]

Take with a grain of salt of course, computers have always seemed to love Michigan.


Bill Connelly makes the S&P+ metric and can use that metric to project wins and I think it's track record is about as good as anything else (I saw a study that showed it outperformed Vegas odds a few years back, don't know if it usually does though or if that was an anomaly.)


Using the S&P+ numbers, Connelly makes up the stats for a hypothetical team that would be the #5 team in the country and then figures out how that team would fare against each team's schedule (as far as it's been played this season). Then it compares each teams actual scoring margin (with a 50 point cap) against how the imaginary #5 team would do.


We can expect big changes going forward since this is only based on 4 games, but for now, our current resume is the #5 resume in the nation.


https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/29/17795292/strength-of-schedule-rankings-2018-sos

 

[biggunsbob]

Not sure I get why ND gets penaltized so much, and is so low. I get that thier schedule is soft but at Wake Forsest isn’t nothing.

 

[Mitchrapp]

They lost to the only decent team they've played.

 

[tomdalton22]

They lost to the only decent team they've played.

yeah, it doesn't make a lot of sense. ND beat UM and they are undefeated and this guy has UM 5 and ND 20?

 

[Michchamp]

FWIW, Sagarin has us 8th.

these guys who do stats typically all agree that margin of victory is the best predictor of future success. It's a completely different take than the pollsters, who are a lot more subjective and influenced by preseason polls, with the effects of those lingering all season long.

Basing rankings on avg. margin of victory is a more sound method; takes chance out of the equation... a one score victory can come down to a single bad call, bounce of the ball, a single bad step in coverage.

Using margin of victory also eliminates bias among conferences and program names. You win consistently by 30 points, you're clearly just the better team in most cases than someone who slogs through a series of close games.

ND will probably finish worse than we do. the polls wouldn't predict that right now; the stats guys would.

 

[Gulo Blue]

I think it's due to the way S&P+ scores every play of the game. ND had a few huge offensive plays followed by our defense handling business more of the game. On the other side of the ball, Michigan's progress was more consistent.

S&P+ has ND ranked 11, but by margin of victory they've played like the #32 team in the nation, according to this. Beating Michigan must be a huge plus, but in two games they played close to low ranked team.

Notre Dame
Team|||||||Rank||||Point Difference
Ball St. ......109....... 8
Vanderbilt ...58 ........5
Wake Forest 84 ........29


Michigan
Team|||||||Rank||||Point Difference
Western......79.........46
SMU...........115........25
Nebraska.....72..........46

 

[Michchamp]

Yeah, compare Wimbush's performance against us with his performance against BallSt (3 INTs) and subsequent benching a couple weeks later.

 

[Mitchrapp]

All I know is Nebraska stinks so UM shouldn't get a plus for that game. Western & SMU? I'm glad they're smashing the teams they're suppose to smash but #5 seems very generous.

 

[Michchamp]

Whenever anyone uses the phrase "all I know is" to start a statement, you should ignore everything they say after that point and mentally replace it with the word "nothing."

 

[biggunsbob]

All I know is Nebraska stinks so UM shouldn't get a plus for that game. Western & SMU? I'm glad they're smashing the teams they're suppose to smash but #5 seems very generous.

They looked like a completely different team then the one that played and alomost beat 3-0 Colorado. I guess having the #1 qb hurt is something.

 

[tomdalton22]

North Texas is 10th

Here are their opponents and margin of victory.

SMU 23
UIW (University of Inaccurate word) 42
Ark 27
Liberty 40

Those games and the margin of victory tell me nothing about their football team...other than they have played absolutely nobody. The University of Inaccurate Word??? WFT is that??? I think a 7 point victory over UM is better than a 40 point victory over Liberty
& UIW.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Whenever anyone uses the phrase "all I know is"

Fix it for you..

 

[hungry]

I think it's Incarnate Word, but yeah

I think Michigan wins by 2 TD if they play in AA

 

[tomdalton22]

I think it's Incarnate Word, but yeah

I think Michigan wins by 2 TD if they play in AA

I think UM could beat Incarnate Word by more than that.

 

[biggunsbob]

Until we start beating MSU, OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin regularly I will not believe it till I see it. The team has had a number of close games that they cannot seem to win under Jim. That has to change. Plus win our Bowl games and do not blow leads !!!

 

[Michchamp]

Until we start beating MSU, OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin regularly I will not believe it till I see it. The team has had a number of close games that they cannot seem to win under Jim. That has to change. Plus win our Bowl games and do not blow leads !!!

2-1 vs PSU, 1-2 vs MSU, 1-1 vs UW, and 0-3 vs OSU, or 4-7

take away the muffed punt in '15 against MSU, and bad spot in '16 against OSU, and we're 6-5 against those teams.

I'm not going to get too down because of one bad season and some bad breaks that could've (and in the OSU example SHOULD have) gone the other way.

 

[Gulo Blue]

2-1 vs PSU, 1-2 vs MSU, 1-1 vs UW, and 0-3 vs OSU, or 4-7

take away the muffed punt in '15 against MSU, and bad spot in '16 against OSU, and we're 6-5 against those teams.

I'm not going to get too down because of one bad season and some bad breaks that could've (and in the OSU example SHOULD have) gone the other way.

Also, the eye test. Under Rodriguez, you could clearly see Michigan wasn't as good and would need a miracle to beat OSU. Under Hoke, the team played way over their head, but it looked like an underdog hanging in there with a superior opponent by the skin of their teeth. Under Harbaugh, we've seen a football team that actually plays well enough to make a game of it. You don't feel like it's some anomaly that they're making a game of it.

 

[Michchamp]

people forget how uncompetitive we were both in general and in the Big Ten under RR and Brady Hoke.

if you take UW/PSU/OSU/MSU out, Harbaugh is 14-1 against everyone else in the conference, and the lone loss was that game @Iowa.

by that same measure, Hoke was 15-7, and RR was 5-7.

 

[hungry]

Dang near every game was a struggle for 7 years of RR and Hoke, except for Hoke's first season...every single damn game! People take for granted 56-10 beatdowns of Nebraska and games like that, because they aren't against "rivals" or "good teams." When Michigan wasn't a good team, they struggled with everyone.

 

[UMRules06]

I do not think it is appropriate to just compare Harbaugh to the utter trash that came before him and use that as his measuring stick. Michigan had nowhere to go but up when he was brought on board.

Michigan was basically dogshit under RichRod and Hoke. I don't think anyone disagrees with that nor forgets it. Harbaugh has come in and made things better absolutely, but not to the level where we should just be happy and satisfied. Is that all it takes to make us happy? Beat the mediocre teams please and I'll be fine? Don't worry about losing to OSU and MSU those guys are tough!

Michigan football should be competing with and beating the best teams in the country whether at home or on the road. This team has a chance to do so. There's nothing wrong with being sour that Harbaugh has not as of yet brought us to that level. That is exactly what he was brought here to do. He was not brought here to make us "not struggle" with lesser opponents. That should have been a given for whomever the new coach was. He was brought here to win championships, and if you believe otherwise I don't know what to tell you.

We will see how the rest of the season goes. Things could go very well it remains to be seen. I do like how much better they looked last week for sure. Gotta take that level of play on the road now.