Coronainsanity

[Gulo Blue]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm


There's a provisional death count for 2020. There were 2.84 million deaths in 2019 and about 40k more deaths each year over the last 5 or 10 years, so before covid, 2.88 million would have been a reasonable death. The provisional death count for 2020 is 3.30 million. 420 thousand higher than what I would have expected before covid. Worldometer says 354 thousand were attributed to covid. Headlines I've seen, but I couldn't even ballpark numbers to include drug overdose and suicides being way up and other communicable diseases being far more suppressed than expected through this. I would expect traffic deaths to be down too.

 

[Spartanmack]

the average increase is about 41k/yr with a standard deviation of ~23.5k over the previous 10 years and 44k/33k over the previous 5. The historical average increase in deaths/year isn't a very useful predictor of expected deaths. The way the tracking of COVID was botched and intentionally fudged, I don't think we can get an accurate estimate of how many died from COVID, the flu, pneumonia, not receiving life saving care for other diseases, etc.

 

[Spartanmack]

hmmm, Dem leaders across the country who were the biggest proponents of lockdowns are suddenly changing their tunes, now that their team has taken the White House...

Lori Lightfoot called for bars and restaurants to open at limited capacity "as soon as possible" and that she is "very, very focused" on making that happen. Of course, it's still about control per Lori, "if we have people and give them entertainment...we have much more of an opportunity, in my view, to be able to regulate and control that environment."

Andrew Cuomo in his recent State of the State address, "We simply cannot stay closed until the vaccine hits critical mass. The cost is too high. We will have nothing left to open. We must reopen the economy, but we must do it smartly and safely."

And then there's this Newsweek headline that just a few short months ago would have been outright heresy: "COVID Lockdowns Have No Clear Benefit vs. Other Voluntary Measures, International Study Shows."

Now that they no longer have a scapegoat to blame for their horrendous mismanaging of the virus that killed the economy, and in many cases, thousands of people (Cuomo, Murphy and Whitmer especially) they all seem to be changing their tunes. Can't wait to read the headlines about how Biden saved the economy and killed the Coronavirus later this year.

 

[Gulo Blue]

the average increase is about 41k/yr with a standard deviation of ~23.5k over the previous 10 years and 44k/33k over the previous 5. The historical average increase in deaths/year isn't a very useful predictor of expected deaths. The way the tracking of COVID was botched and intentionally fudged, I don't think we can get an accurate estimate of how many died from COVID, the flu, pneumonia, not receiving life saving care for other diseases, etc.

Relative to a 400+k increase in deaths overall, even a low accuracy estimate paints the same picture as a high accuracy count.

 

[Spartanmack]

Relative to a 400+k increase in deaths overall, even a low accuracy estimate paints the same picture as a high accuracy count.

similar, it gives you a reasonable range of excess deaths in 2020 but when it comes to the actual number of COVID deaths and those due to other causes or worse, mismanagement of the virus and thus avoidable, the picture is more Jackson Pollack than Holbein.

 

[Gulo Blue]

similar, it gives you a reasonable range of excess deaths in 2020 but when it comes to the actual number of COVID deaths and those due to other causes or worse, mismanagement of the virus and thus avoidable, the picture is more Jackson Pollack than Holbein.

What's a Jackson Pollack range of numbers?

 

[Michchamp]

similar, it gives you a reasonable range of excess deaths in 2020 but when it comes to the actual number of COVID deaths and those due to other causes or worse, mismanagement of the virus and thus avoidable, the picture is more Jackson Pollack than Holbein.

 

[Spartanmack]

What's a Jackson Pollack range of numbers?

roughly zero to infinity.

 

[Gulo Blue]

roughly zero to infinity.

You're saying you think the uncertainty is closer to zero to infinity?

 

[Gulo Blue]

Pretty sure, based on past deaths, average year to year growth, and covid projections, I said this total would end up around 3.2 or 3.3M earlier in this thread.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Yes. Why wouldn't it?


So are you going to believe in this in like February or March when we can add up how many total people died in the US in 2020 and it's like 3.3 million?

Yeah. Pretty good guess since apparently there was no way to know how many zeros there should be in the number.

 

[Spartanmack]

You're saying you think the uncertainty is closer to zero to infinity?

Your sarcasm meter isn't working - again. It's not the range that is the issue.

 

[Michchamp]

Yeah. Pretty good guess since apparently there was no way to know how many zeros there should be in the number.

LOL, I'd say you pretty much win the thread...

 

[Gulo Blue]

Your sarcasm meter isn't working - again. It's not the range that is the issue.

I took it to be exaggeration and an unwillingness to to pinned down to an actual range. You want to say there's a lot of uncertainty, without saying what a lot is.

 

[Spartanmack]

I took it to be exaggeration and an unwillingness to to pinned down to an actual range. You want to say there's a lot of uncertainty, without saying what a lot is.

I'm not really interested in a 5 page argument over an aspect that we agree on - maybe you missed the part where I agreed the picture is similar, but the picture doesn't clearly show how much of those excess deaths are due to coronavirus, the flu, pneumonia, mismanagement of the coronavirus (avoidable deaths if not for governors requiring nursing homes to accept COVID positive patients, etc), knock-on effects and unintended consequences of the coronavirus or the measures to combat it (suicides, cancer, kidney failure, etc, etc). We also can't just count death certificates identifying deaths as COVID or COVID related because we have a lot of evidence suggesting that information isn't reliable.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Your sarcasm meter isn't working - again. It's not the range that is the issue.

I'm not really interested in a 5 page argument over an aspect that we agree on - maybe you missed the part where I agreed the picture is similar

So you were being sarcastic and agreeing with me while saying I was looking at the wrong issue.

 

[Spartanmack]

So you were being sarcastic and agreeing with me while saying I was looking at the wrong issue.

This was sarcasm:

roughly zero to infinity.

it's a pretty broad range so it should be obvious that it wasn't serious. It's not the wrong issue, it just doesn't say a whole lot about the issue that most people don't know.

 

[Gulo Blue]

This was sarcasm:



it's a pretty broad range so it should be obvious that it wasn't serious. It's not the wrong issue, it just doesn't say a whole lot about the issue that most people don't know.

Obviously that wasn't literal. I just took it to mean a whole lot.

 

[Michchamp]

Hey, it's been almost a year.

Have we established yet that the Flu doesn't kill more people each year than Coronavirus?

Remember when people were saying that?

After all the yelling and screaming last spring, I kinda feel like the people that said things like that, while also discouraging other people and government from taking protective measures, should be locked in pillories outside their town halls for 24 hours and be pelted with rotten fruits and vegetables by anyone who shows up.

Current U.S. deaths from Coronavirus since Feb/Mar 2020 (link): 416,941

Average annual U.S. deaths from Influenza (2010-2020) (link): 35,900

Highest annual U.S. deaths from Influenza (2010-2020): 61,000 in 2017-2018

 

[tomdalton22]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qbtqew-CI8