Coronainsanity

[Gulo Blue]

We did a shit job separating the vulnerable from the very unlikely to be vulnerable.

We did a shit job protecting the vulnerable.

By protecting the very unlikely to be vulnerable from the boogeyman, we fucked up our economy.

Two months into the coronainsanity, science indicated that the danger of the pandemic for much of the population had been vastly over calculated, we knew the risk factors and we could have and should have pivoted to a more reasonable strategy.

Some states have revised their Covid death count down.

I think the death counts in case counts are profoundly exaggerated.

I disagree. We still haven't accepted the risks and that's why people are still dying and it's getting worse. The results are not exaggerated - or - people are dying from higher rates this year due to something else, but people are dying at higher rates than normal, and the difference is higher than what's being reported as covid deaths.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Rates are dropping in only 3 states now:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/04/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html

 

[tinselwolverine]

I disagree. We still haven't accepted the risks and that's why people are still dying and it's getting worse. The results are not exaggerated - or - people are dying from higher rates this year due to something else, but people are dying at higher rates than normal, and the difference is higher than what's being reported as covid deaths.

Off the top of my head, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Washington State all revised death counts down.

Healthcare facilities are and have been financially incentivized to report deaths as being from Covid, with no documentation required more than some doctor said so - didn’t need a positive test; just the doc’s best guess.

Here in California, the state top health official, Sonia Angel, was forced to resign when it was revealed the state didn’t know its from its ass from its elbow when it came to collecting Covid data.

CDC, I think it was, just revealed, to no one’s surprise, that in 96% of the deaths in the Covid count, the stiffs had had significant afflictions of the known co-morbidities - anyone’s guess how many of them would have died this year anyways - certainly some of them.

Yeah, some people legitimately died of Covid.

Everyone who has died has died of something.

I heard the fat old orange man statistically has a 95% chance of survival, even with his age and co-morbidity.

He seems to be improving; they are talking about releasing him as early as tomorrow.

When I first heard the news he had it, my thought was that he’s to mean to succumb.


We’ll see at the end of the year how much the year to year death count is above average this year, if it is at all.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Off the top of my head, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Washington State all revised death counts down.

Healthcare facilities are and have been financially incentivized to report deaths as being from Covid, with no documentation required more than some doctor said so - didn?t need a positive test; just the doc?s best guess.

Here in California, the state top health official, Sonia Angel, was forced to resign when it was revealed the state didn?t know its from its ass from its elbow when it came to collecting Covid data.

CDC, I think it was, just revealed, to no one?s surprise, that in 96% of the deaths in the Covid count, the stiffs had had significant afflictions of the known co-morbidities - anyone?s guess how many of them would have died this year anyways - certainly some of them.

Yeah, some people legitimately died of Covid.

Everyone who has died has died of something.

I heard the fat old orange man statistically has a 95% chance of survival, even with his age and co-morbidity.

He seems to be improving; they are talking about releasing him as early as tomorrow.

When I first heard the news he had it, my thought was that he?s to mean to succumb.


We?ll see at the end of the year how much the year to year death count is above average this year, if it is at all.

I'm pretty sure it's come up here before, but I find the excess death data to be compelling. If the excess deaths weren't there, all those points you made might explain why there's no uptick in death to go along with covid, but that's not where things stand.



https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

[tinselwolverine]

I'm pretty sure it's come up here before, but I find the excess death data to be compelling. If the excess deaths weren't there, all those points you made might explain why there's no uptick in death to go along with covid, but that's not where things stand.



https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Are the current year to year excessive deaths - October 2018 through September 2019, October 2019 through September 2020 - equal to the count of Covid deaths?

I find the CDC reports relatively imponderable.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Cherry picking the week of April 11th
2017 - 55,274 deaths
2018 - 55,420 deaths
2019 - 56,713 deaths

2020 - 78,911 deaths

 

[Gulo Blue]

Are the current year to year excessive deaths - October 2018 through September 2019, October 2019 through September 2020 - equal to the count of Covid deaths?

I find the CDC reports relatively imponderable.

Excess deaths have been about 10% higher than the reported covid deaths.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...id-19-deaths-might-be-undercounted-2020-08-13

 

[tinselwolverine]

Excess deaths have been about 10% higher than the reported covid deaths.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...id-19-deaths-might-be-undercounted-2020-08-13

According to this, the year to year growth rate for deaths in 2020 is the same or lower than it’s been since 2014.

EDIT: Now between us you were the mathlete and I’m wasn’t, but it looks to me like for several years in a row, about 35,000 more people are dying each year in this country than died the year before. I guess that makes sense given our aging population.

Anyways, it looks like the increase this year is going to be consistent and in keeping with that annual increase in the death rate. Based on those numbers, arguably almost nobody actually died of the Covid, and virtually every death of the 96% with a significant underlying comorbidity probably died because of the comorbidity.

 

[Gulo Blue]

According to this, the year to year growth rate for deaths in 2020 is the same or lower than it’s been since 2014.

EDIT: Now between us you were the mathlete and I’m wasn’t, but it looks to me like for several years in a row, about 35,000 more people are dying each year in this country than died the year before. I guess that makes sense given our aging population.

Anyways, it looks like the increase this year is going to be consistent and in keeping with that annual increase in the death rate. Based on those numbers, arguably almost nobody actually died of the Covid, and virtually every death of the 96% with a significant underlying comorbidity probably died because of the comorbidity.

Adding up the deaths for each of the last 3 years, I get
2017: 2,817,354
2018: 2,831,222
2019: 2,854,233


So year-to-year increases of 14k and 23k which is close enough to 35k when we're comparing it to 200k. But how you think we're on track for that, I don't follow.


If I add up just April-September, it even looks a bit worse.

2017: 1,138,532
2018: 1,090,952
2019: 1,164,850

2020: 1,397,104

 

[tinselwolverine]

Adding up the deaths for each of the last 3 years, I get
2017: 2,817,354
2018: 2,831,222
2019: 2,854,233


So year-to-year increases of 14k and 23k which is close enough to 35k when we're comparing it to 200k. But how you think we're on track for that, I don't follow.


If I add up just April-September, it even looks a bit worse.

2017: 1,138,532
2018: 1,090,952
2019: 1,164,850

2020: 1,397,104

I?m just doing math - simple math, the kind even I can understand.

We are on pace to average 98 deaths per day more than last year, so if you multiply that by 365 days, you get 35,770.

If you look at the link and do the calculations, the average number of deaths per day has been increasing by about 100 per day each year for several years. I did the calculations and for the last several years, the annual increase has been in 35,000 to 38,000 range.

Based on those calculations, there is no increase in the normal annual increase.

 

[Gulo Blue]

I?m just doing math - simple math, the kind even I can understand.

We are on pace to average 98 deaths per day more than last year, so if you multiply that by 365 days, you get 35,770.

If you look at the link and do the calculations, the average number of deaths per day has been increasing by about 100 per day each year for several years. I did the calculations and for the last several years, the annual increase has been in 35,000 to 38,000 range.

Based on those calculations, there is no increase in the normal annual increase.

I clicked your link. It was the US death rate per 1,000 people from 1950-2100. So I think I'm not looking at what you are looking at. (Also it says "NOTE: All 2020 and later data are UN projections and DO NOT include any impacts of the COVID-19 virus.")



My math wasn't fancy either. Just adding, but I did it in excel with the downloaded data table

 

[Gulo Blue]

The data can be exported from here:
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-Deaths-Associated-with-COVID-19/xkkf-xrst/


The data set you get has each state listed separately. I deleted all that and just looked at the weekly deaths for the entire US. It's alphabetical, so it's ...Texas, United States, Utah... Seems stupid, but that's what it is.


To check what I was looking at, I added up the total deaths for each year and got about 2.8 million. Then I searched for how many people die per year in the US and someone on quora said 2.8 million, so I think I'm looking at what I think I'm looking at.

 

[tinselwolverine]

I clicked your link. It was the US death rate per 1,000 people from 1950-2100. So I think I'm not looking at what you are looking at.



My math wasn't fancy either. Just adding, but I did it in excel with the downloaded data table

1950 - 2020. We still don?t have any data going forward because, you know, it?s the future,
so it hasn?t happened and shit.

I scrolled down below the chart, which is incomprehensible to me, and below that are two sets of columns.

The left columns list various foreign countries and the right columns are for the United States.

The first US column is the year, the second column is The death rate-it doesn?t show it but it?s the average daily death rate, and I know that because I know around what the daily death rate - It?s been in the news quite a bit because of the Covid - and the third column is the annual growth rate, I guess growth in death.

So I subtracted the daily death rate 2019 from the daily death rate from 2020 and multiplied by 365.

I did the same thing going back seven years. The average daily death rate going back seven years is 103, very interestingly there is very little variation within that seven year time frame.

The annual yearly increase in the death count in the United States has been in the range of 35,000 to maybe a couple thousand more, and it?s going to be the same this year.

So that is exactly the data from where I derived my calculations.

 

[Gulo Blue]

1950 - 2020. We still don?t have any data going forward because, you know, it?s the future,
so it hasn?t happened and shit.

I scrolled down below the chart, which is incomprehensible to me, and below that are two sets of columns.

The left columns list various foreign countries and the right columns are for the United States.

The first US column is the year, the second column is The death rate-it doesn?t show it but it?s the average daily death rate, and I know that because I know around what the daily death rate - It?s been in the news quite a bit because of the Covid - and the third column is the annual growth rate, I guess growth in death.

So I subtracted the daily death rate 2019 from the daily death rate from 2020 and multiplied by 365.

I did the same thing going back seven years. The average daily death rate going back seven years is 103, very interestingly there is very little variation within that seven year time frame.

The annual yearly increase in the death count in the United States has been in the range of 35,000 to maybe a couple thousand more, and it?s going to be the same this year.

So that is exactly the data from where I derived my calculations.

That is a sound method. But it says in the red box near the top that 2020 is a projection not including covid.

 

[tinselwolverine]

That is a sound method. But it says in the red box near the top that 2020 is a projection not including covid.

Oh crap.

Missed that.

 

[Michchamp]

Adding up the deaths for each of the last 3 years, I get
2017: 2,817,354
2018: 2,831,222
2019: 2,854,233


So year-to-year increases of 14k and 23k which is close enough to 35k when we're comparing it to 200k. But how you think we're on track for that, I don't follow.


If I add up just April-September, it even looks a bit worse.

2017: 1,138,532
2018: 1,090,952
2019: 1,164,850

2020: 1,397,104

So that's 233,000 excess deaths so far this year...?



About 30K higher than the ~203,000 they're reporting for the US alone. I think aggregare deaths from COVID-19 are about 15% higher than reported at least. Probably even more than that, if you consider fatal car crashes are down.

 

[Gulo Blue]

So that's 233,000 excess deaths so far this year...?



About 30K higher than the ~203,000 they're reporting for the US alone. I think aggregare deaths from COVID-19 are about 15% higher than reported at least. Probably even more than that, if you consider fatal car crashes are down.

Yes, but Tinsel's observation that the baseline number goes up a couple-to-few 10s of thousands every year is also a part of that. Maybe 15k extra deaths in 6 months due to year-to-year increase + another 15k to attribute to covid. Or maybe not. Maybe there were 10k fewer auto crash related deaths offset by 10k additional suicides.

Also, CNBC is saying Trump is on a steroid for more severe cases.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/04/trump-put-on-steroid-recommended-for-severe-covid-19-cases.html

Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious diseases physician at the Boston University School of Medicine, said the steroid treatment suggests that Trump has a level of inflammation that warrants the use of steroids despite the fact that the drug also suppresses the immune system.

 

[Michchamp]

It's pretty funny that so many people are hoping Trump dies of COVID-19 that twitter had to write a filter to automatically delete posts about it.

We're not doing that here, right?

So, hypothetically speaking, I could say "I hope that asshole Trump, who - through a combination of political posturing and gross negligence bungled our national response to COVID-19 - created the conditions that killed many thousands of our fellow Americans, still doesn't give a shit about it, and who continues to call for police violence against minorities and protestors & Right Wing supremacist & militia violence against his political opponents, dies of COVID-19" and that would be okay, right?

 

[Gulo Blue]

It's pretty funny that so many people are hoping Trump dies of COVID-19 that twitter had to write a filter to automatically delete posts about it.

We're not doing that here, right?

So, hypothetically speaking, I could say "I hope that asshole Trump, who - through a combination of political posturing and gross negligence bungled our national response to COVID-19 - created the conditions that killed many thousands of our fellow Americans, still doesn't give a shit about it, and who continues to call for police violence against minorities and protestors & Right Wing supremacist & militia violence against his political opponents, dies of COVID-19" and that would be okay, right?

I hope, even though it is still bad to wish him dead, that what you, hypothetically, and others are getting at is more like "I want all this terrible stuff to stop so badly that I want..."

 

[tinselwolverine]

It's pretty funny that so many people are hoping Trump dies of COVID-19 that twitter had to write a filter to automatically delete posts about it.

We're not doing that here, right?

So, hypothetically speaking, I could say "I hope that asshole Trump, who - through a combination of political posturing and gross negligence bungled our national response to COVID-19 - created the conditions that killed many thousands of our fellow Americans, still doesn't give a shit about it, and who continues to call for police violence against minorities and protestors & Right Wing supremacist & militia violence against his political opponents, dies of COVID-19" and that would be okay, right?

I don?t think the Secret Service would view it as a threat; they don?t seem to be viewing it as a threat that other people are doing it.

I haven?t heard him saying anything about minorities and police and white supremacists that you?re claiming he has been saying though.

I have no idea what might?ve happened if HRC had been elected. Maybe she would?ve handled it better, maybe she would?ve handled it the same, maybe she would?ve handled it worse.

I do know that most of the world is having the same problems with Covid that we are, and Donald Trump isn?t the president of any other country but this one.