Game 77 Tigers @ Astros Sat Jun 28th

[tigermud]

Well if we a stop and think about it for a min, the bunt attempt did probably give him a better chance of getting on than lungeing at the baseball and striking out

 

[Mitchrapp]

Well if we a stop and think about it for a min, the bunt attempt did probably give him a better chance of getting on than lungeing at the baseball and striking out

Why would that matter? The next guy hit a homerun..

 

[Rebbiv]

Good play.

1. Move up baserunners and puts the go ahead run on 2nd.
2. Stay out of DP.
3. No K
4. Make the worst fielder on the field make a very good play to get you out. That's the biggest reason that is overlooked. It wasn't a gimme out. The pitcher had to make a very good play to get an out. Any time you can force the oppositions worst fielder make a very good play to get you, that is a quality out. Had he thrown that ball away......AT LEAST one run scores, probably two.

The ONLY problem with the bunt is that it was 3 feet too close to the P. Otherwise Kinsler hits a grand slam.

I think, given the situation and position of the IF......the bunt was a great call by RD.....just didnt execute it well enough to get on.

Playing the percentages....it was a dumb play.

http://shutdowninning.com/5/post/2012/04/sacrificial-silliness.html

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=975409

Run Expectancy

1st and 2nd, 1 out = 0.963 Runs

2nd and 3rd, 2 out = 0.626 Runs


Run Expectancy of scoring just 1 run

1st and 2nd, 1 out = .429

2nd and 3rd, 2 out = .280


Bottom line, in this situation, you lose almost 15% chance of scoring just 1 run and about 30% of scoring multiple runs if you sacrifice bunt.

Now, if the premise is that he was trying to get a hit...it still is a negative event.

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

Bunt (regardless of the outcome) = - 0.12

K = - 0.53

Out = - 0.60

Caught Stealing = - 0.64


Now, there are times, when a sacrifice is a good play if scoring just 1-run is the goal.

Man on 2nd, 0 out = .637

Man on 3rd, 1 out = .674

But this is about the only situation where the percentages increase. Certainly, player abilities can come into play. But as a general rule bunting/sacrificing is dumb.

And yes, most managers still think it is "smart" baseball.

 

[tigermud]

Why would that matter? The next guy hit a homerun..

I just heard Kinsler has the day off today? Really stupid brad the last time he did that Kinsler went into a slump...unbelievable

 

[UMRules06]

Playing the percentages....it was a dumb play.

http://shutdowninning.com/5/post/2012/04/sacrificial-silliness.html

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=975409

Run Expectancy

1st and 2nd, 1 out = 0.963 Runs

2nd and 3rd, 2 out = 0.626 Runs


Run Expectancy of scoring just 1 run

1st and 2nd, 1 out = .429

2nd and 3rd, 2 out = .280


Bottom line, in this situation, you lose almost 15% chance of scoring just 1 run and about 30% of scoring multiple runs if you sacrifice bunt.

Now, if the premise is that he was trying to get a hit...it still is a negative event.

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

Bunt (regardless of the outcome) = - 0.12

K = - 0.53

Out = - 0.60

Caught Stealing = - 0.64


Now, there are times, when a sacrifice is a good play if scoring just 1-run is the goal.

Man on 2nd, 0 out = .637

Man on 3rd, 1 out = .674

But this is about the only situation where the percentages increase. Certainly, player abilities can come into play. But as a general rule bunting/sacrificing is dumb.

And yes, most managers still think it is "smart" baseball.

Your bottom line is why I tend to think the play wasn't as bad as people are saying. Yes in general bunting isn't a great option. I can agree with that. All those numbers (I'm assuming) take into account every single bunt attempt between 1999 - 2002. I'm sure that data includes plenty of guys who weren't the most adept at bunting, and a lot of guys who don't have the speed of Rajai Davis.

I believe he was trying to get on with a base hit bunt, and not trying to sacrifice. He looked awful in his earlier plate appearances trying to swing the bat, so with his speed why not try and get a hit with a bunt? It was a close bang bang play, and it just didn't work because the ball went basically right to the pitcher.

Those numbers are all long term numbers. Sometimes, managers make short term decisions that go against what the long term data says. It could be because of the defensive alignment, player abilities, situation, how a particular guy has been swinging the bat lately etc.

 

[lonesometiger]

Good play.

1. Move up baserunners and puts the go ahead run on 2nd.
2. Stay out of DP.
3. No K
4. Make the worst fielder on the field make a very good play to get you out. That's the biggest reason that is overlooked. It wasn't a gimme out. The pitcher had to make a very good play to get an out. Any time you can force the oppositions worst fielder make a very good play to get you, that is a quality out. Had he thrown that ball away......AT LEAST one run scores, probably two.

The ONLY problem with the bunt is that it was 3 feet too close to the P. Otherwise Kinsler hits a grand slam.

I think, given the situation and position of the IF......the bunt was a great call by RD.....just didnt execute it well enough to get on.

1 what good did that do when the HR would have/did scored him anyway?
2 Staying out o the DP only works when the next batter gets on! Your going from a.500 chance to a 1.000 with the next hitter.
3 big deal refer too #2. K is better than the DP. But to K your a swinging your chances of a hit are better.
4 It's one of 4 plays the pitcher works on all the time. On most teams there are worst players at 3rd,1st and left. Some all three.

But really when I'm on defense I'll take the second out any way I can get it!
It worked out but bunting with one out and losing by one in the 9th has got to be in the top of things not to do!

 

[Mitchrapp]

Your bottom line is why I tend to think the play wasn't as bad as people are saying. Yes in general bunting isn't a great option. I can agree with that. All those numbers (I'm assuming) take into account every single bunt attempt between 1999 - 2002. I'm sure that data includes plenty of guys who weren't the most adept at bunting, and a lot of guys who don't have the speed of Rajai Davis.

I believe he was trying to get on with a base hit bunt, and not trying to sacrifice. He looked awful in his earlier plate appearances trying to swing the bat, so with his speed why not try and get a hit with a bunt? It was a close bang bang play, and it just didn't work because the ball went basically right to the pitcher.

Those numbers are all long term numbers. Sometimes, managers make short term decisions that go against what the long term data says. It could be because of the defensive alignment, player abilities, situation, how a particular guy has been swinging the bat lately etc.

The data still says it's a bad idea..

 

[UMRules06]

The data still says it's a bad idea..

Let a computer run the team then. Why should managers always do things that are "by the numbers?" Sometimes situations dictate that you do things that go against the numbers, that's all I'm saying.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Let a computer run the team then. Why should managers always do things that are "by the numbers?" Sometimes situations dictate that you do things that go against the numbers, that's all I'm saying.

Managers are dumb. There's no situation that should dictate a bunt..with your leadoff speed guy with 1-out already.

 

[Thumb]

Good play.

1. Move up baserunners and puts the go ahead run on 2nd.
2. Stay out of DP.
3. No K
4. Make the worst fielder on the field make a very good play to get you out. That's the biggest reason that is overlooked. It wasn't a gimme out. The pitcher had to make a very good play to get an out. Any time you can force the oppositions worst fielder make a very good play to get you, that is a quality out. Had he thrown that ball away......AT LEAST one run scores, probably two.

The ONLY problem with the bunt is that it was 3 feet too close to the P. Otherwise Kinsler hits a grand slam.

I think, given the situation and position of the IF......the bunt was a great call by RD.....just didnt execute it well enough to get on.

Right because Rajai Davis is renowned for his bunting prowess. Nobody on the Tigers ever pop a bunt straight up into a DP either huh?

Stupid, Stupid call. It would have been stupid still if there had been 0 outs, but making the second out ON PURPOSE is fucking retarded baseball.

 

[UMRules06]

Managers are dumb. There's no situation that should dictate a bunt..

Managers are just people. People make mistakes obviously, and things don't always work out even when you do things the data says you should do. Rebbiv even pointed out that going strictly by the numbers it makes sense to bunt with a runner on second no outs if you're trying to push 1 run across, so your statement is false if we're relying solely on data.

If a team shifts on Avila, is it dumb of him to try and bunt down the third base line where no fielder is present? Especially if he's looked lost at the plate for most of the game (as Rajai looked yesterday).

 

[gotime909]

I didn't see the postgame, you guys sure it was Brad's call and not something Davis did on his own?

 

[Mitchrapp]

I didn't see the postgame, you guys sure it was Brad's call and not something Davis did on his own?

I don't know either, Nonetheless dumb play.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Managers are just people. People make mistakes obviously, and things don't always work out even when you do things the data says you should do. Rebbiv even pointed out that going strictly by the numbers it makes sense to bunt with a runner on second no outs if you're trying to push 1 run across, so your statement is false if we're relying solely on data.

If a team shifts on Avila, is it dumb of him to try and bunt down the third base line where no fielder is present? Especially if he's looked lost at the plate for most of the game (as Rajai looked yesterday).

There wasn't zero outs..and yes Avila should never bunt. Ever see Ortiz bunt when the shift is in?

 

[UMRules06]

There wasn't zero outs..and yes Avila should never bunt. Ever see Ortiz bunt when the shift is in?

Your post said there is "no situation that should dictate a bunt." I was refuting that by pointing out what Rebbiv posted, it wasn't a reference to the specific play last night.

Ortiz is quite possibly the slowest runner in MLB while simultaneously being one of the best power hitters as well, so yeah I agree HE should never bunt. Avila is no speedster, but he could certainly reach first base if he executed a bunt properly to a place where no defender was present.

Look I'm not saying it's a GREAT play, or that teams should bunt all the time. I just think it's a little extreme to just say it's "dumb" and you should "never" do it. It's another weapon in the offensive arsenal that I think is silly to just completely throw out the window. Use it when you feel the situation warrants.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Your post said there is "no situation that should dictate a bunt." I was refuting that by pointing out what Rebbiv posted, it wasn't a reference to the specific play last night.

Ortiz is quite possibly the slowest runner in MLB, so yeah I agree HE should never bunt. Avila is no speedster, but he could certainly reach first base if he executed a bunt properly to a place where no defender was present.

Look I'm not saying it's a GREAT play, or that teams should bunt all the time. I just think it's a little extreme to just say it's "dumb" and you should "never" do it. It's another weapon in the offensive arsenal that I think is silly to just completely throw out the window. Use it when you feel the situation warrants.

In that situation. That was implied..you actually Avila could lay down a bunt? Had he ever done that before? You don't bunt just because there's a shift..

 

[UMRules06]

In that situation. That was implied..you actually Avila could lay down a bunt? Had he ever done that before? You don't bunt just because there's a shift..

Maybe if he practiced it more (you can learn how to bunt believe it or not). If you're not even going to bother to try and learn it, or even show a bunt when you're at the plate, then what's stopping teams from shifting on you every single time? They're putting you at a disadvantage as a hitter, why don't you try and learn something that counters that disadvantage?

Again, I'm not saying bunt, bunt, bunt all the time. I'm just saying it's a useful tool to have in your back pocket, and sometimes it's helpful to bring it out. Last night, I DIDN'T MIND that Davis tried to bunt, because he had looked awful swinging the bat, and with his speed he could have reached on an infield hit. I also wouldn't have minded if he had just swung away. I don't think either option was the "right" way or the "dumb" way.

Agree to disagree on this one

 

[Thumb]

I didn't see the postgame, you guys sure it was Brad's call and not something Davis did on his own?

I don't know, and I'm not assigning blame to a specific individual. But it is not smart to do that in the 9th inning, on the road when you're down a run and have 2 men on base and already 1 out. Plus Cabrera is still 2 batters away.

It's one of those situations where it worked out anyways, but the ends don't always justify the means.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Maybe if he practiced it more (you can learn how to bunt believe it or not). If you're not even going to bother to try and learn it, or even show a bunt when you're at the plate, then what's stopping teams from shifting on you every single time? They're putting you at a disadvantage as a hitter, why don't you try and learn something that counters that disadvantage?

Again, I'm not saying bunt, bunt, bunt all the time. I'm just saying it's a useful tool to have in your back pocket, and sometimes it's helpful to bring it out. Last night, I DIDN'T MIND that Davis tried to bunt, because he had looked awful swinging the bat, and with his speed he could have reached on an infield hit. I also wouldn't have minded if he had just swung away. I don't think either option was the "right" way or the "dumb" way.

Agree to disagree on this one

There's certain guys that just don't bunt..even guys that should bunt well don't most of the time and you want Avila to have bunting in his arsenal?

 

[UMRules06]

There's certain guys that just don't bunt..even guys that should bunt well don't most of the time and you want Avila to have bunting in his arsenal?

Would I rather Avila have the ability to bunt, then not have the ability to bunt? Yes. Why do you want to limit his skillset?