JD traded to the Diamondbacks....

[kalinecountry]

If you guys can spend an hour listening to this, it might help with the trade.


http://www.westofwoodward.com/2017/07/the-voice-of-turtle-episode-67-we.html
The Voice of the Turtle, Episode 67: We traded J.D. Martinez for that?! 67 minutes.

Brian Sakowski of Perfect Game USA Minor leagues guru.
Chris Brown of Tigs Town Tigers guru minor leagues prospects site.

Topics in this week's episode include:
- Did Al Avila just get schooled by the Diamondbacks?
- Why didn't the Tigers wait longer to trade J.D. Martinez?
- Dawel Lugo and the meaning of "meh"
- Why do the Tigers like Jose King?
- How long is this rebuild going to take?
- You should know about these Astros prospects
- You should also know about these Nationals prospects
- We're probably not getting much for Alex Avila
- Why is the Tigers farm system still ranked so low?
- Listener questions

 

[nsonnett14]

For someone who wasn't on the board for a number of years makes comps your comment to swiss cheese.

DD had more success as a GM than the couple of warts, bad trades signings of huff and washburn, and the bullpen curse, I liked DD and didn't want to see him go.

nice try gimp, now go get your shine box.

say whaaaa ?? Relax old timer haha dont get too worked up !!

 

[Rebbiv]

Bottom line is the kid is better than you're making him out to be. He excellent with the bat and his walk rate is improving this year. He doesn't fit your whole "swing first.....then strike out" comment either. His K rate is fairly low which is extremely impressive given that he's been pretty much the youngest guy in every level he's been in.

I'm still not a fan of the trade, but this kid isn't a bad prospect.

You are taking a small sample and drawing a huge conclusion. Castellanos improved in 2016, right? McCann improved his last year in Toldeo, right?

At 26, Darin Erstad hit .355 BAVG and .951 OPS. He never hit above .295 BAVG and .746 OPS again. But I digress. Name me one MLBer over the last 50 years who had a walk above 20.0 PA/BB. Now try it for 15.0 PA/BB or above (I posted a couple of lists if you want a reference).

Now look at the names on this lists and the ages they were at when they were in the minors. Lugo's peers at 3B/SS. The really good ones hit .300 or better in the minors. They had a walk rate under 15.0 PA/BB. Their OPS was greater than .750 OPS (most at or above .800 OPS). Fact. Next, with ample PAs in the minors, most that make it to the MLB and stay, DO NOT improve on their minor league totals. Meaning, if they are a career .700 OPS in the minors, they do not exceed that in the majors. But you can cite the roughly 50% of this season as a basis to refute these notions.

By reading most experts comments about this trade, Lugo and Alcantara are destined to be a utility infielders, at best. Sure, DET is probably going to make Lugo their starting 3B at some point.

 

[gotime909]

You are taking a small sample and drawing a huge conclusion. Castellanos improved in 2016, right? McCann improved his last year in Toldeo, right?

At 26, Darin Erstad hit .355 BAVG and .951 OPS. He never hit above .295 BAVG and .746 OPS again. But I digress. Name me one MLBer over the last 50 years who had a walk above 20.0 PA/BB. Now try it for 15.0 PA/BB or above (I posted a couple of lists if you want a reference).

Now look at the names on this lists and the ages they were at when they were in the minors. Lugo's peers at 3B/SS. The really good ones hit .300 or better in the minors. They had a walk rate under 15.0 PA/BB. Their OPS was greater than .750 OPS (most at or above .800 OPS). Fact. Next, with ample PAs in the minors, most that make it to the MLB and stay, DO NOT improve on their minor league totals. Meaning, if they are a career .700 OPS in the minors, they do not exceed that in the majors. But you can cite the roughly 50% of this season as a basis to refute these notions.

By reading most experts comments about this trade, Lugo and Alcantara are destined to be a utility infielders, at best. Sure, DET is probably going to make Lugo their starting 3B at some point.

Stop making it out that I'm calling him a stud. I've called him a DECENT prospect and the "experts" agree by ranking him 11th in our system. All I've pointed out is that you are way off by your initial comments about him. Have you even looked at his K rate yet?

But what the hell do I know? I remember arguing with you after signing JD so this is all just full circle I guess.

 

[Rebbiv]

Stop making it out that I'm calling him a stud. I've called him a DECENT prospect and the "experts" agree by ranking him 11th in our system. All I've pointed out is that you are way off by your initial comments about him. Have you even looked at his K rate yet?

But what the hell do I know? I remember arguing with you after signing JD so this is all just full circle I guess.

Ranked 11th in the worst minor league system says what exactly? "I finished 9th in my class!" <class size was only 10>

DECENT is subjective. His ceiling is a MLB utility infielder. That's it.

What significant is there about K rate? Does this mean players with low K rate are better somehow? Because in 45 years of studying stats, I never seen it. FYI...Deivi Cruz is a very fair comparison, except Cruz was a far better defender and stayed at SS. Lugo is now a 3B and his bat is more a SS bat.

 

[gotime909]

Ranked 11th in the worst minor league system says what exactly? "I finished 9th in my class!" <class size was only 10>

DECENT is subjective. His ceiling is a MLB utility infielder. That's it.

What significant is there about K rate? Does this mean players with low K rate are better somehow? Because in 45 years of studying stats, I never seen it. FYI...Deivi Cruz is a very fair comparison, except Cruz was a far better defender and stayed at SS. Lugo is now a 3B and his bat is more a SS bat.

You're right, the ability to make contact with a baseball doesn't matter.

 

[tomdalton22]

The 3 players are 18, 21 & 22. You never know what they could turn into. They may all suck or one of them might turn into an every day player. Hell, one could turn into a stud.

 

[byco42]

In the long play history of the franchise, this trade will not, IMO, make much of a difference. But the consideration that this group of execs will be making more of them and adding to the aggregate decline.

 

[lonesometiger]

Ranked 11th in the worst minor league system says what exactly? "I finished 9th in my class!" <class size was only 10>

DECENT is subjective. His ceiling is a MLB utility infielder. That's it.

What significant is there about K rate? Does this mean players with low K rate are better somehow? Because in 45 years of studying stats, I never seen it. FYI...Deivi Cruz is a very fair comparison, except Cruz was a far better defender and stayed at SS. Lugo is now a 3B and his bat is more a SS bat.

Lugo at 3b at some time. So what happens to Castelanos?

 

[byco42]

Lugo at 3b at some time. So what happens to Castelanos?

Nothing until Logo demonstrates be can play at the MLB level.

 

[kalinecountry]

http://www.scout.com/mlb/tigers/story/1792240-analysis-underwhelming-haul-for-martinez
TigsTown Analysis: Underwhelming Haul for J.D. Martinez.
TigsTown

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/7/19/15995188/tigers-trade-j-d-martinez-diamondbacks-prospects
Tigers trade J.D. Martinez to Diamondbacks for three prospects.
Here’s a quick take on Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara, and Jose King.
MinorLeagueBall

https://2080baseball.com/reports/dawel-lugo/
Lugo.
2080Baseball

https://2080baseball.com/spotlight/mario-alcantara/
Alcantara.
2080Baseball

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa917184&position=2B
King.
Fangraphs

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=666593#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL
King.
MILB.com

 

[Rebbiv]

You're right, the ability to make contact with a baseball doesn't matter.

I didn't even say that. I could post the sky is blue and you would debate the proclamation. So in the long run, you still have zero evidence to back your claim or anything to refute my assertions.

 

[gotime909]

I didn't even say that. I could post the sky is blue and you would debate the proclamation. So in the long run, you still have zero evidence to back your claim or anything to refute my assertions.

I honestly don't even know why you're arguing about this. All I did was point out that just using "minor league career stats" doesn't tell the whole story. Which is FUCKING TRUE!!! Of course 22 year olds getting drafted out of college will fair better than 17 year olds out of high school early on. Why do you always get so damn defensive when anyone counters something you post. If you're really that sensitive maybe message boards aren't for you.

And now I will put you back on ignore where you've been for the last year.

 

[Rebbiv]

I honestly don't even know why you're arguing about this. All I did was point out that just using "minor league career stats" doesn't tell the whole story. Which is FUCKING TRUE!!! Of course 22 year olds getting drafted out of college will fair better than 17 year olds out of high school early on. Why do you always get so damn defensive when anyone counters something you post. If you're really that sensitive maybe message boards aren't for you.

And now I will put you back on ignore where you've been for the last year.

Debating = arguing. OK. Again, you have yet to present a coherent argument based on anything other than your own opinion and based on that opinion, belittled what I presented. Is anything I presented an exact science? Of course not. Nothing is. But the odds say that Lugo turns into Jake Squat because he cannot take a walk. History has proven that time and time again. You want to run behind the "ignore" option, fine. Throw your two-year old fit. I don't need to interact with you. Keep in mind I have yet to engage you first in quite some time.

 

[gotime909]

Great start for Lugo at Erie

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2017/7...gers-dawel-lugo-mlb-prospect-team-of-the-week

 

[nsonnett14]

Great start for Lugo at Erie

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2017/7...gers-dawel-lugo-mlb-prospect-team-of-the-week

3 walks in 13 at bats , Rebbiv will find a way to spin it lol

 

[Rebbiv]

3 walks in 13 at bats , Rebbiv will find a way to spin it lol

No. But 13 ABs is a really good sample size to draw conclusions, one way or the other.

 

[gotime909]

3 walks in 13 at bats , Rebbiv will find a way to spin it lol

I have him back on ignore so I won't see it. My guess will be a sample size comment.

 

[byco42]

It's all conversation until these players make the Tigers and contribute. All this back and forth about walk rate and sample sizes and what not ... but low BB% rates in the minors is a red flag, especially considering that many more pitchers lack control, let alone command.

 

[dale675]

3 walks in 13 at bats , Rebbiv will find a way to spin it lol

No. But 13 ABs is a really good sample size to draw conclusions, one way or the other.