Jose Valderde: Best ever?

[mjsb2]

Saves is the worst stat in the game.

Worse than wins, worse than BA, worse than just about anything.

OK, you have an argument to back this up?

Not that I'm disputing it, but you toss it out as if it's supposed to be the gospel, and the end of the story.

It is the end of the story.

 

[Thumb]

Ah, gotcha.

 

[jimrice]

OK, you have an argument to back this up?

Not that I'm disputing it, but you toss it out as if it's supposed to be the gospel, and the end of the story.

It is the end of the story.

I'll take a whack. The disparity between an easy save with a 3 run lead and no one on in the 9th and guy that comes in with runners on in the 8th and finishes the game with a one run lead is so great. To call both of those things a "save" and make them essentially equal in the stat column makes the stat silly.

I'll add that it doesn't mean that Valverde has been anything but solid this year. I just think the stat is stupid because it really tells you very little.

 

[Thumb]

It is the end of the story.

I'll take a whack. The disparity between an easy save with a 3 run lead and no one on in the 9th and guy that comes in with runners on in the 8th and finishes the game with a one run lead is so great. To call both of those things a "save" and make them essentially equal in the stat column makes the stat silly.

I'll add that it doesn't mean that Valverde has been anything but solid this year. I just think the stat is stupid because it really tells you very little.

OK, your thoughts on Save % as a stat?

 

[mjsb2]

I'll take a whack. The disparity between an easy save with a 3 run lead and no one on in the 9th and guy that comes in with runners on in the 8th and finishes the game with a one run lead is so great. To call both of those things a "save" and make them essentially equal in the stat column makes the stat silly.

I'll add that it doesn't mean that Valverde has been anything but solid this year. I just think the stat is stupid because it really tells you very little.

OK, your thoughts on Save % as a stat?

What was Todd Jones', around 85%?

Pretty much any RP will post a save% around 85%.

To use Ryan Perry who was previously mentioned.

He has 19 clean innings in 29 games this season.

He also has 6 appearances where he gave up 1 ER.

That's 25 appearances combined while giving up 1 ER or less.

Considering most saves aren't with 1 run leads, Perry would probably have had 23 saves this year in 29 Opps.

So when a pitcher with an ERA over 5.58 and a WHIP of 1.63 would have a save% around 80, it pretty much tells you that the save stat is a joke, and that save% is a poor indicator as well.

Basically, it's a completely useless stat and shouldn't even be looked at.

 

[Mitchrapp]

There are a lot of useless stats. ERA, basesload, RP comes in and gives up a double. Next guy he gets out. 3 runs scored but his ERA goes down. Wins, team gives you 12 runs support and you win 20 games with a 4.2 ERA. Holds, you give up two runs but leave the game still winning by a run - hold.

 

[mjsb2]

Yeah, ERA isn't a very good stat either, especially in a small sample size.

Over a career though, it's fine to use, even W-L is a decent stat over the size of a career.

But saves is useless at all times.

Troy Percial is top 10 in all-time saves, Todd Jones is top 15.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Yeah, ERA isn't a very good stat either, especially in a small sample size.

Over a career though, it's fine to use, even W-L is a decent stat over the size of a career.

But saves is useless at all times.

Troy Percial is top 10 in all-time saves, Todd Jones is top 15.

I agree with that if we're talking about save total. But Save percentage is a nice stat. Because regardless what Rice says, Ryan Perry and some others won't always be able to do it.

The best RP stat, inherited runners.

 

[Thumb]

Mitch[/color]]

Yeah, ERA isn't a very good stat either, especially in a small sample size.

Over a career though, it's fine to use, even W-L is a decent stat over the size of a career.

But saves is useless at all times.

Troy Percial is top 10 in all-time saves, Todd Jones is top 15.

I agree with that if we're talking about save total. But Save percentage is a nice stat. Because regardless what Rice says, Ryan Perry and some others won't always be able to do it.

The best RP stat, inherited runners.

How do you measure a RP who starts an inning then?

 

[Mitchrapp]

I don't know. I'm just saying inherited runners being stranded is a good stat. Leave me alone

 

[mjsb2]

Agreed, I do like inherited runners.

And just looking at the total amount of clean innings they have.

 

[Thumb]

Well I don't think Saves is an important stat.

But, I don't think it should not be looked at at all, Save% either.

When a guy has 43 Saves, and 100% Save%, that's a pretty good indicator that he's been very effective.

But not the only one, because Valverde also had a pretty high ERA for a while, and his WHIP was not great, that's why you look at more than 1 stat.


But bottom line, Caputo is jumping the gun.

 

[tinselwolverine]

look...every time this year he's taken the mound with the lead, he's finished with the lead. that's all i fucking care about. i don't give a goddamn about any of the fucking math problems some people get their heads wrapped around. he's gotten the outs when he needs to get them so he's more than fine by me...and i'm pretty sure that's what mitch is geting at. who gives 2 flying fucks if he gives up 2 runs in a 3 run lead and they win? do those 2 runs matter, fuck no. jesus f'n christ.

Fuck, shit, cock sucker (I just wanted everyone to know that I konw how to cuss too).

I do care that he gives up runs in a tie game....but that doesn't impact his "perfect save" season.

Ha, ha, ha...

This is some pretty fuckin' funny shit.

In fact, this may be some of the funniest fuckin' shit I've ever ready in my whole god damned, mother fucking life...

 

[Rebbiv]

Some thoughts on the matter.

Each stat (IR/IS or SV) is situation dependent. Meaning, how many on base and number of outs.

A reliever can enter the came with the bases loaded and no one out. The odds a pretty good that he will allow an inherited runner to score. Or, a reliever could come in with two (1st and 2nd) on and two out. The odds that they score are greatly reduced. So, just looking at how many inherited runners a reliever has had over a season, and how many have scored, really does not say a lot, unless you define the conditions of those inherited runners.

Also, a reliever can enter with two on, gives up a walk (bases loaded), without recording an out, and be replaced by another reliever that allows the first two runners to score. The first will have 2 IR with 0 IS. Where the 2nd will have 3 IR and 2 IS. No where in this stat does it define how effective (or noneffective) the first reliever was.

Reliever A enters game 3 times with bases loaded and no out (12 IR). 4 runs score for a 33.3% rate.

Reliever B enters games 2 times with bases loaded and one out (8 IR) and 1 time with bases loaded and two out. Again, 4 runners score and he has the same percent. However, what was the degree of difficulty?

You can also apply this to saves. How many were by 3 runs? How many was by 2 runs?. A closer can come into the game with 3 run lead and 2 outs in the 9th and get a save. They also can come into the game in the 8th in a save situation, and have their offense score 12 runs in the top of the 9th, and still get a save.

Save percentages are higher based on conditions. 1st and foremost, they increase if the reliever came into the came without inheriting runners. Again, the situation of bases loaded, no out, in a save situation makes it extremely difficult, regardless if it is 3-run or 1-run lead.

When you evaluate the data that is available (box scores), which I did a few years back for the ESPN board in discussing Todd Jones as a closer. You will find only a 1-2 save differential over the course of a season between a elite closer and an average closer.

My last take. If you go back and look at John Hiller's career. Look at the times he entered the game with runners on base and in a close game, it is hard not to declare him the best. But that is me.

You can like Inherited Runners and Save Percentages all you want. Just understand that their is contextual situations you should take into consideration. The stats on face value can be misleading.

 

[tycobb420]

Mitch[/color]]

Yeah, ERA isn't a very good stat either, especially in a small sample size.

Over a career though, it's fine to use, even W-L is a decent stat over the size of a career.

But saves is useless at all times.

Troy Percial is top 10 in all-time saves, Todd Jones is top 15.

I agree with that if we're talking about save total. But Save percentage is a nice stat. Because regardless what Rice says, Ryan Perry and some others won't always be able to do it.

The best RP stat, inherited runners.

even inherited runners can be misleading. A guy comes in with the bases loaded and 2 out is different than bases loaded an no out. And it can further be differentiated by the score. Game is 6-0 with bases loaded and none out. Ground ball, fly ball and 2 of the three score, but who cares, it's now 6-2 and the team does not care b.c they got the outs.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Nothings perfect and reb I think you're looking into it a bit too much. When I see someone strand 27 of 28 base runners I know he did a better job than someone who stranded 18 of 31. And when I see someone who goes 43-43 in wave opps I know he did a good job. You guys think too much.