Miguel Cabrera Wins the 2013 AL MVP

[tomdalton22]

So RC/650 takes everything into consideration except speed on the basepaths (ability to advance from 1st to 3rd on a single, score on a single from 2B, making an out at 2B when a faster player would be safe, etc.?

 

[Rebbiv]

So RC/650 takes everything into consideration except speed on the basepaths (ability to advance from 1st to 3rd on a single, score on a single from 2B, making an out at 2B when a faster player would be safe, etc.?

Pretty much. Although what you describe, may only effect 3-4 runs a year, if that.

"Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within a 5% margin of error."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created#cite_note-3

 

[tomdalton22]

Pretty much. Although what you describe, may only effect 3-4 runs a year, if that.

"Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within a 5% margin of error."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created#cite_note-3

when comparing a player like Miggy or Prince to a guy like Trout it would be significantly more than 3-4 runs. For average runners I agree.

 

[Rebbiv]

when comparing a player like Miggy or Prince to a guy like Trout it would be significantly more than 3-4 runs. For average runners I agree.

How so? Not every event will result in a run. Not every event means the same.

Trout goes 1st to third on a single, gets stranded.

Trout goes 1st to third on a single, but the next positive event is a D, T or HR. Did it really matter that he went from 1st to third, if he, Cabrera or Fielder score from the next event?

We could play the "what if" game all day long. Bottom line, Runs Created is not a perfect (none exist), but it probably is the best (my opinion) of mitigating 95% of all events.

 

[tomdalton22]

How so? Not every event will result in a run. Not every event means the same.

Trout goes 1st to third on a single, gets stranded.

Trout goes 1st to third on a single, but the next positive event is a D, T or HR. Did it really matter that he went from 1st to third, if he, Cabrera or Fielder score from the next event?

We could play the "what if" game all day long. Bottom line, Runs Created is not a perfect (none exist), but it probably is the best (my opinion) of mitigating 95% of all events.

I understand it isn't perfect but I think it underestimates the benifit of speed on the basepaths. I think the diference between Trout and Miggy is more like 6-10 runs a year. Your guess of 3-4 is way too low IMO. There is no way to prove it either way. Anyway, thanks for explaining RC/650 for me.

 

[Rebbiv]

AL RE24 (Run Expectancy per 24 outs)

1. Cabrera 75.78
2. Trout 73.26
3. Davis 69.04

AL Adjusted OPS+

1. Cabrera 187
2. Trout 179
3. Davis 165

AL Runs Created (Counting Stat)

1. Cabrera 155 (652 PA = 154.52 RC/650)
2. Trout 155 (716 PA = 140.71 RC/650)
3. Davis 143 (673 PA = 138.11 RC/650)


NL RE24 (Run Expectancy per 24 outs)

1. Goldschmidt 67.45
2. Freeman 63.06
3. Carpenter 52.44

Adjusted OPS+

1. Goldschmidt 160
2. McCutchen 158
3. Werth 154

Runs Created (Counting Stat)

1. Votto 132 (726 PA = 118.18 RC/650)
2. Goldschmidt 129 (710 PA = 118.10 RC/650)
3. Choo 125 (712 PA = 114.11 RC/650)
4. Carpenter 125 (717 PA = 113.32 RC/650)
5. McCutchen 123 (674 PA = 118.62 RC/650)

 

[Rebbiv]

I understand it isn't perfect but I think it underestimates the benifit of speed on the basepaths. I think the diference between Trout and Miggy is more like 6-10 runs a year. Your guess of 3-4 is way too low IMO. There is no way to prove it either way. Anyway, thanks for explaining RC/650 for me.

Let's try it this way.

On First Base per 650 PAs

Trout 177 (63 - 0out, 63 - 1out, 51 -2outs)

Average Run Expectancy (assumes average runner)

63 - 0Out = 28 Runs

63 - 1Out = 18 Runs

51 - 2Out = 7 Runs

Total = a possible 53 runs as an average runner



Cabrera 213 (46 - 0Out, 80 - 1Out, 88 - 2Out)

Average Run Expectancy (assumes average runner)

46 - 0Out = 20 Runs

80 - 1Out = 23 Runs

88 - 2Out = 12 Runs

Total = a possible 55 runs as an average runner

Cabrera as a average runner would score 2 more runs than Trout as an average. Then who would further that distant by 6-10 runs (total of 8-12 runs)? Frankly, I think you are over estimating what speed does on the base paths.

 

[byco42]

I understand it isn't perfect but I think it underestimates the benifit of speed on the basepaths. I think the diference between Trout and Miggy is more like 6-10 runs a year. Your guess of 3-4 is way too low IMO. There is no way to prove it either way. Anyway, thanks for explaining RC/650 for me.

Runs Above Average (incl. SB and CS) 2013 Fangraphs
Cabrera: -4.4
Trout: 8.1

Runs from Baserunning (all baserunning events) 2013 Baseball Reference
Cabrera: -1
Trout: 6

Either way, it amounts to difference of a win or two on the season.