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MSU @ Michigan

Sbee

Sbee

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
9,259
Huge game for MSU this weekend in Ann Arbor, it's unlikely that Iowa loses 4 games but if we win Saturday the chances of winning out look a lot better. At worst it puts us in position to at least get a double bye in the big ten tournament.

Looking at both teams, they are both very good offensively. I am going to make the assumption that Tum and Lavert don't play, I don't really want tum in this game because it would hurt the offensive flow and they could play 5 on 4. I do hope Lavert plays for Michigan although it would be limited minutes, we could go right at him on defense assuming he's getting back into shape. Also, I think Michigan is a much better offensive team without him, Lavert is a bit of a ball stopper. he gets the ball and you see a lot of one on one basketball. Some teams are better without their leading scorer (see indiana).

I think we will get a lot more open shots than they will, Michigan is not a good defensive team, they're first in the big ten in PPG allowed but adjusted for tempo they're 127 in the country, we're #12, both offenses have similar adjusted numbers. There will be plenty of open shots for us, especially after watching Michigan attempt to defend on Tuesday.

Two matchups concern me, I don't love the idea of Harris on Walton. That kid is a player and he's someone we should have offered, I'm sure he'd like to prove that to us Saturday. Harris is athletic and has some size but if Walton gets to the line 10+ times we're in trouble. The other question is their small lineup, can we play DD and Costello at the same time? can DD guard Robinson? it would take him away from the basket. I'd be more inclined to put Valentine on him though he gives up some size. Robinson lives on the 3pt line and it could preserve DV's fuel tank and keep him out of foul trouble. Michigan doesn't even attempt to offensive rebound against us, they just sprint back to the basket to guard against the break.

I think the spread will be MSU by 2 or 3. We'll get more open shots than they will and I think we should win but things happen with teams being hot or cold, foul trouble, etc. I'm happy that Teddy V worked the UM-IU game Tuesday, less likely to see him on saturday.
 
It improves our chances of winning out mainly because it's the next game and we'd need to win one less after that. In terms of degree of difficulty, this game is a distant third to Purdue and Indiana. This is a game we should win and given the position we're in, it's a borderline must win. Right now, it looks like the interesting race is for second place and it looks like IU and michigan definitely have tougher remaining schedules than we do and Maryland's home stretch is probably a bit more challenging as well, so that helps. But unless those teams completely meltdown, our margin for error is pretty tight right now. Don't get me wrong, I think we're better than the other teams competing for second place but we've painted ourselves into a corner with the Nebraska and Wisco losses - it would have been nice to split with Iowa, but hard to make that case that we should have given they beat the piss out of us both times.

Maybe I'm missing something but when I watch uofm, I'm unimpressed. I don't think they have anyone that can carry the team or that they can give the ball to and have him beat us. If we can disrupt ball movement and keep them from having a lights out night from behind the arc (something we don't do particularly well, but can against uofm given their reliance on it and almost nothing else - adjusted for the 1 game difference, they've taken 77 more 3s than Iowa this year), we should win by double digits. If the spread is 2 or 3, I'd jump all over MSU.
 
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I think we're a more sound and deep basketball team, but matchups matter. Michigan is 4 out 1 in, Donnal being their only big man that's worth anything and he doesn't defend the post well. I could see Costello getting a lot of post touches, then double teams that lead to kick out opportunities. This game could be an offensive clinic with MSU blowing them out but there are also some matchups in their favor. Harris on walton worries me, going with 2 bigs could create some problems for our guys like Schilling and DD guarding on the perimeter. The good thing is that Robinson and Irvin aren't really threats to drive. I think more of the matchups are in our favor but we'll see how it plays out
 
Interesting match up, I think UM's match up zone could give us problems, beating your man before the double team comes is a key. We saw what an aggressive team can do against UM Tuesday night, IU humiliated Michigan. We're playing fast and aggressive right now, I'd like to see us shoot early in the shot clock and push it. Punch them in the mouth early and they could be shellshocked and fold.

I expect UM to come out with a loot of intensity though, their mad hood got challenged by IU and they folded and embarrassed themselves.

On D, no double teams in the post!!! Stay with your shooter and play the passing lanes. If we can run off from rebounds and off from turnovers, UM can't hang. MSU by 7+.
 
Michigan doesn't really scare me much but it's a rivalry game on the road, I'd expect their best effort. Again, good offensive team, bad defensive team with little to no presence in the post. We SHOULD be able to operate effectively on offense and own the boards, we have the best 3pt % defense in the country as well.
 
UM better win this year because the next few years they along with 95% of the other teams are going to get run offf the court.
 
Thinking about this one more the matchup at the 4 spot is pretty critical. If DD can be decent defensively against the small 4 from Michigan there's no way Michigan can stop DD on offense. JB refuses to play 2 bigs together and DD could dominate. We have smaller guys that could stay with Irvin like Clark, Bess, Goins potentially but they don't have size to matchup with us. The good thing is that Irvin and or Robinson aren't great off the bounce to they become somewhat easier to cover, just need to fight through screens and contest 3's.
 
Sbee said:
Thinking about this one more the matchup at the 4 spot is pretty critical. If DD can be decent defensively against the small 4 from Michigan there's no way Michigan can stop DD on offense. JB refuses to play 2 bigs together and DD could dominate. We have smaller guys that could stay with Irvin like Clark, Bess, Goins potentially but they don't have size to matchup with us. The good thing is that Irvin and or Robinson aren't great off the bounce to they become somewhat easier to cover, just need to fight through screens and contest 3's.
Click to expand...

IF Zac Irvin is going to try to block out DD, DD might have more offensive boards than Michigan has defensive boards by himself.
 
Hockey team gets it done in overtime! 3-2 final score. Been a rough season otherwise though.
 
johnny2x2x said:
IF Zac Irvin is going to try to block out DD, DD might have more offensive boards than Michigan has defensive boards by himself.
Click to expand...

Hopefully Izzo will let the guy play 20 minutes.....
eh, should be playing 25 at this point.....
 
Is this going to be the game thread for both boards?

We've all gotten to know each other pretty well....

Yep; Spartans got it done over Michigan last night in hockey at the Joe...reprise tonight in EL making it a hoops/hockey double header...hockey game is on BTN...
 
I think this game game will be no different than any of Michigan's games. If they shoot lights out from 3, they'll be tough. If they don't, they won't.
 
My god, could we be more open?
 
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