MSU @ Western

[Sbee]

If the MSU O and D lines are as advertised, the score should be 55-0 by the end of the third.

i believe that WMU starts a true freshman on oline and an 18 year old sophomore, we should dominate that part of the game. They aren't a pushover, good passing game and good skill players but we should win relatively easily. I think the crowd will be 50% MSU fans

 

[jdeb]

Spartans are gonna put a good ole fashion butt whopping on.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

[Spartanmack]

Vegas, and the gambling public evidently have more doubts about Dantonio's ability to replace Narduzzi, Lippett, Mumphrey, Langford, Hill, and put together a solid secondary, than MSU's fanbase does.

they will beat WMU soundly, but without all those weapons, it probably won't be a blowout. The only way it will be is if the get some additional points from defensive or ST scores.

Nick Hill will not be missed and 18 pt spreads are indicative of a blowout. Looking at the top 25 there are only 7 spreads materially greater than 18. The dogs in those spreads hail from C-USA, the Sun Belt and the American Athletic Conference and most had losing records last year by a wide margin. The 3 that didn't were: BG 7-6 (5-3 in C-USA) Tx St 7-5 (5-3 in the Sun Belt) and Ark St 7-6 (5-3 in Sun Belt). Also, among the favorites are teams coached by Briles, Rich Rod, Bielema and Stoops - all notorious for running up scores.

Edit - it should be pointed out that there are 4 more top 25 games w/ no lines given the opponents are from non-FBS programs, like Appalachian State used to be. If there were spreads on those games they likely would be materially greater than 18 pts.

 

[johnny2x2x]

Apparently, it's no shoe in that Delton Williams is going to be allowed to play this season. Might still red shirt him.

 

[tomdalton22]

Nick Hill will not be missed and 18 pt spreads are indicative of a blowout. Looking at the top 25 there are only 7 spreads materially greater than 18. The dogs in those spreads hail from C-USA, the Sun Belt and the American Athletic Conference and most had losing records last year by a wide margin. The 3 that didn't were: BG 7-6 (5-3 in C-USA) Tx St 7-5 (5-3 in the Sun Belt) and Ark St 7-6 (5-3 in Sun Belt). Also, among the favorites are teams coached by Briles, Rich Rod, Bielema and Stoops - all notorious for running up scores.

Edit - it should be pointed out that there are 4 more top 25 games w/ no lines given the opponents are from non-FBS programs, like Appalachian State used to be. If there were spreads on those games they likely would be materially greater than 18 pts.

OSU, TCU, BSU, Stanford, UCLA, Auburn, ASU, ND, Wisky & Bama all play power 5 teams. So out of 11 games, 7 have spreads over 18

 

[johnny2x2x]

OSU, TCU, BSU, Stanford, UCLA, Auburn, ASU, ND, Wisky & Bama all play power 5 teams. So out of 11 games, 7 have spreads over 18

And it is on the road, at SS it's a 25 point spread.

 

[Spartanmack]

OSU, TCU, BSU, Stanford, UCLA, Auburn, ASU, ND, Wisky & Bama all play power 5 teams. So out of 11 games, 7 have spreads over 18

Does this somehow change or disprove the point that 18 points is a blowout spread and all the spreads materially higher are against far weaker opponents?

You realize wisco and Bama play each other - you can't count them twice. But why remove power 5 opponents from the total in the first place? That makes no sense. My point is that all of the spreads materially higher than the MSU/wmu spread are against weak opponents from weaker conferences. Pointing out that 9 spreads near or lower than MSU's are against power 5 conference teams doesn't change that one bit. It makes no sense.

 

[tomdalton22]

Does this somehow change or disprove the point that 18 points is a blowout spread and all the spreads materially higher are against far weaker opponents?

You realize wisco and Bama play each other - you can't count them twice. But why remove power 5 opponents from the total in the first place? That makes no sense. My point is that all of the spreads materially higher than the MSU/wmu spread are against weak opponents from weaker conferences. Pointing out that 9 spreads near or lower than MSU's are against power 5 conference teams doesn't change that one bit. It makes no sense.

I should have said 10 teams in the top 25 are playing power 5 opponents plus the 4 non FBS opponents only leaves 11 games left where teams are playing "mid majors"

Remove the power 5 games because those are in theory good opponents...none of which would typically have a high point spread.

So, the point being, out of 11 games, 7 have point spreads over 18.

As far as weaker opponents...all of them are weak opponents.

 

[Spartanmack]

I should have said 10 teams in the top 25 are playing power 5 opponents plus the 4 non FBS opponents only leaves 11 games left where teams are playing "mid majors"

Remove the power 5 games because those are in theory good opponents...none of which would typically have a high point spread.

So, the point being, out of 11 games, 7 have point spreads over 18.

As far as weaker opponents...all of them are weak opponents.

Of course they are weak opponents. That's why they are blow out spreads. But all weak opponents are not equally weak. Some are far weaker than others as evidenced by the fact that most materially greater underdogs are teams that are materially inferior - even to wmu. And if you look at some of the power 5 dogs, there are some teams that are not much better than wmu, if at all like northwestern and Washington (even Texas a) yet they are getting significantly fewer points than western. Granted, the favorites in those games may not be ranked lower than MSU but that doesn't explain the entire difference in spreads. Point is, at wmu +18 the oddsmakers are predicting a Spartan blowout of the Broncos - maybe not as much of a blowout as they would if the Spartans were playing a sun belt team coming off a losing season, but a blowout nonetheless.

It's not that you shouldn't have said what you said and instead should have said what you later said. What you shouldn't have said was anything at all. You're just trying to stir up shit - again. And doing it rather poorly - again.

And even if your flawed logic weren't flawed, it's not 10 because 2 of those teams play each other. One of those 10 power 5 top 25 teams is actually an underdog. And just so we are clear, the reason you logic is flawed is because it isn't that 7 of 25 or 7 of 21 or even 7 of only 11 spreads are wider. It's that all 7 spreads that are materially wider are partially, mostly or entirely explained by the fact that the underdogs are materially weaker than WMU. The % of total is irrelevant.

 

[tomdalton22]

Of course they are weak opponents. That's why they are blow out spreads. But all weak opponents are not equally weak. Some are far weaker than others as evidenced by the fact that most materially greater underdogs are teams that are materially inferior - even to wmu. And if you look at some of the power 5 dogs, there are some teams that are not much better than wmu, if at all like northwestern and Washington (even Texas a) yet they are getting significantly fewer points than western. Granted, the favorites in those games may not be ranked lower than MSU but that doesn't explain the entire difference in spreads. Point is, at wmu +18 the oddsmakers are predicting a Spartan blowout of the Broncos - maybe not as much of a blowout as they would if the Spartans were playing a sun belt team coming off a losing season, but a blowout nonetheless.

It's not that you shouldn't have said what you said and instead should have said what you later said. What you shouldn't have said was anything at all. You're just trying to stir up shit - again. And doing it rather poorly - again.

And even if your flawed logic weren't flawed, it's not 10 because 2 of those teams play each other. One of those 10 power 5 top 25 teams is actually an underdog. And just so we are clear, the reason you logic is flawed is because it isn't that 7 of 25 or 7 of 21 or even 7 of only 11 spreads are wider. It's that all 7 spreads that are materially wider are partially, mostly or entirely explained by the fact that the underdogs are materially weaker than WMU. The % of total is irrelevant.

First, I wasn't trying to stir up shit. I said I was surprised that the #5 team in the country was only an 18 point favorite vs. a MAC team. Then one of the MSU fans said that WMU was the favorite to win the MAC. I pointed out that they weren't in fact the favorite but picked to finish in the top 4. Then you decided to spew some garbage about a bunch of point spreads being over 18 but those opponents are worse than WMU. So I pointed out that there are only 11 games with power 5 teams vs mid majors and 7 have point spreads over 18. How is that not relevant? Those are the only games similar to the MSU game vs WMU? Ranked power 5 vs other power 5 are not relevant. Ranked vs ranked are not relevant. Ranked vs. non FBS are not relevant. That leaves 11 games.

For the record I said I think that MSU should beat WMU by more than 3 TDs 8 out of 10 times. I will bet the game and give the points.

 

[Spartanmack]

First, I wasn't trying to stir up shit. I said I was surprised that the #5 team in the country was only an 18 point favorite vs. a MAC team. Then one of the MSU fans said that WMU was the favorite to win the MAC. I pointed out that they weren't in fact the favorite but picked to finish in the top 4. Then you decided to spew some garbage about a bunch of point spreads being over 18 but those opponents are worse than WMU. So I pointed out that there are only 11 games with power 5 teams vs mid majors and 7 have point spreads over 18. How is that not relevant? Those are the only games similar to the MSU game vs WMU? Ranked power 5 vs other power 5 are not relevant. Ranked vs ranked are not relevant. Ranked vs. non FBS are not relevant. That leaves 11 games.

For the record I said I think that MSU should beat WMU by more than 3 TDs 8 out of 10 times. I will bet the game and give the points.

No, you replied to my response to michturd and were clearly trying to discredit my point that 18 points was a blowout spread and every spread materially greater was against materially inferior underdogs. Clearly they are inferior opponents. The number of games against non-power 5 teams is not relevant. What is relevant is the quality of opponent and clearly, in games where the spread is materially greater than 18, the quality of opponent is materially weaker than wmu. The only reason I limited the analysis to the top 25 was because beyond that, the spreads tend to tighten and become far less meaningful - you're much less likely to see big spreads as you go further down the rankings.

 

[tomdalton22]

you're much less likely to see big spreads as you go further down the rankings.

exactly! That is why I thought the #5 team in the country would have a spread more than 18....regardless if the MAC team is supposed to be a little better than other mid majors. TN is favored by 21 vs BG and TN is ranked 25th. I understand that BG is going to TN but it's not like MSU is going into hostile territory. My guess is there will be an equal number of MSU fans as WMU fans at the game.

 

[Spartanmack]

I think its too low as well but 4-7 points too low, not 15-20. Whether you or i think it should be higher or lower doesn't change the fact that 18 pts is a blowout spread and that all the materially higher spreads are against materially weaker opponents. Same w/ your example - BG is a really bad football team. Wmu beat them by 12, western Kentucky beat them by 4 TDs and they got blown out by ball state and NIU. I also think TN is being way overhyped this year. I'm not buying it and I don't like that spread.

 

[tbone413]

WMU Alum here - am pissed I wont be able to make it to Kzoo today. I heard the place has just been bonkers all week. There will be some heavy drinking there today haha.

That being said, I am hoping for a competetive game, but for MSU to win. I am a Bronco through and through, but MSU has a chance to have a special season this year, and Western can still lose this game and make a bowl game/win double digit games.


On a side note - where the hell can I get some Row The Boat swag? My initials are RTB, and while I actually cant stand that slogan - Id love to get some RTB WMU gear...but their online bookstore doesnt sell shit!

 

[boogerlovejoy]

WMU Alum here - am pissed I wont be able to make it to Kzoo today. I heard the place has just been bonkers all week. There will be some heavy drinking there today haha.

That being said, I am hoping for a competetive game, but for MSU to win. I am a Bronco through and through, but MSU has a chance to have a special season this year, and Western can still lose this game and make a bowl game/win double digit games.


On a side note - where the hell can I get some Row The Boat swag? My initials are RTB, and while I actually cant stand that slogan - Id love to get some RTB WMU gear...but their online bookstore doesnt sell shit!

1. I live in Kzoo and just cracked my first beer. Heading to tailgate around 3:00. It's been pretty crazy here.....not too bad, though. It's created a buzz that rarely makes it's way to Kalamazoo.....a big time athletic event!

2. Row the Boat if a stupid ass slogan and I'm tired of hearing it. I can't wait until Fleck is gone after this year (to greener pastures, as he's a good coach) so I don't have to hear it anymore.

3. I think the game will be competitive for a half.....maybe a 17-10 MSU halftime score. I think the Spartans depth will eventually lead to a mismatch in the 2nd half though....and the final will be 38-17.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

exactly! That is why I thought the #5 team in the country would have a spread more than 18....regardless if the MAC team is supposed to be a little better than other mid majors. TN is favored by 21 vs BG and TN is ranked 25th. I understand that BG is going to TN but it's not like MSU is going into hostile territory. My guess is there will be an equal number of MSU fans as WMU fans at the game.

Damn it Spartanmack.....you're making me agree with Tom twice in one week.

It IS surprising that the spread is what it is. However, I think the reason for that has to do with WMU getting a lot of love because of Fleck and MSU having a number of unknowns at this point (how will the D look without Narduzzi, the secondary, Davis going down, Williams suspension, WR's).

Nothing wrong with this......it's a Vegas point spread.....not an assessment of the MSU program. All the Spartans have to do is come out and stomp the Broncos and all will be well. If they don't do that.....and the game is closer than expected......then the spread was justified.

It's all in our hands.......just gotta take care of business.

Like it or not.....the spread is surprising for a top 5 team vs. Western Michigan.

 

[Spartanmack]

Damn it Spartanmack.....you're making me agree with Tom twice in one week.

It IS surprising that the spread is what it is. However, I think the reason for that has to do with WMU getting a lot of love because of Fleck and MSU having a number of unknowns at this point (how will the D look without Narduzzi, the secondary, Davis going down, Williams suspension, WR's).

Nothing wrong with this......it's a Vegas point spread.....not an assessment of the MSU program. All the Spartans have to do is come out and stomp the Broncos and all will be well. If they don't do that.....and the game is closer than expected......then the spread was justified.

It's all in our hands.......just gotta take care of business.

Like it or not.....the spread is surprising for a top 5 team vs. Western Michigan.

That's OK - people choose the wrong side all the time (ha!). What exactly do you agree with? That 18 pts isn't a blowout spread and/or that it should be in the 30s like University of Louisiana Monroe, SMU, UTSA, UTEP, NM St or Akron are getting? Fact is, 18 pts is a blowout spread and WMU is a much better team than any of those basement dwellers in decidedly worse conferences (Sun Belt or AAC which by the way are not "mid majors"). Several of those teams won 3 or fewer games in far weaker conferences.

If MSU wins by that number or something close without needing a garbage time TD to do it, they will have blown them out. And if it's closer than expected, then the spread was NOT justified - that would mean it should have been lower.

Like I said, I think the spread should be low, maybe mid 20s and there's no way to prove this but I'm confident that WMU may get more pts from other top 10 teams but not materially more - certainly not 2x.

 

[gotime909]

If MSU doesn't win by at least 25, I'll be disappointed. 42-17

 

[gotime909]

Well that's a great start lol

 

[JScottWriter]

Kickoff coverage might need work.