NCAA Tourney Games Thread

[biggunsbob]

Does the pac-10 have any more teams..First time since 1986 that haven't won a game in the NCAA if that is the case.

 

[biggunsbob]

Don't forget Mark Donnal will play for Clemson tomorrow.

 

[wlvrnstlr4life]

I must have had a couple windows open during the game. I just noticed I commented 3 times in the wrong thread, lol.

 

[Gulo Blue]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-march-madness-predictions/

538 gives Michigan a 58% chance of getting past Houston. 15% chance of making the Final Four.

 

[Michchamp]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-march-madness-predictions/

538 gives Michigan a 58% chance of getting past Houston. 15% chance of making the Final Four.

What does he base his model on? I know he's just giving probabilities here, but they always seem a little suspect.

 

[Michchamp]

I must have had a couple windows open during the game. I just noticed I commented 3 times in the wrong thread, lol.

that's okay. since you never make much sense anyway, no one noticed.

 

[Gulo Blue]

What does he base his model on? I know he's just giving probabilities here, but they always seem a little suspect.

It's a weighted jumble of all the other rankings. 75% computers, 25% human polls. They're weighted by how well they've predicted results in the past. They make adjustments to account for players injuries based on that player's stats. And then they have some method for adjusting during the tournament based on how well they are playing in the tournament compared to expectations (to account for a team getting hot or cold.)

 

[Michchamp]

It's a weighted jumble of all the other rankings. 75% computers, 25% human polls. They're weighted by how well they've predicted results in the past. They make adjustments to account for players injuries based on that player's stats. And then they have some method for adjusting during the tournament based on how well they are playing in the tournament compared to expectations (to account for a team getting hot or cold.)

basing picks on poll results - even just in part - seems suspect

 

[Gulo Blue]

basing picks on poll results - even just in part - seems suspect

I think it's safe to bet they do it they way they do everything else; using past data to create a combination of weights and adjustments that would have produced the best results over the whole set of data that they have.

They gave Trump the highest odds I saw leading up to the election. I think in the aftermath of that election, they looked back at their predictions to see if they were correct about as often as they should be and they were. I don't know if they've done the same thing with any sports, but this all started with baseball and was adapted to other sports and politics.

 

[biggunsbob]

Marshall has a guy from intramurals on their team and he's playing great...

 

[UMRules06]

Day 2 games underway. I don't know why I had faith in Purdue ugh. They never live up to their hype. In a battle with CS Fullerton although still early.

 

[gotime909]

purdue is a great outside shooting team and is I think 1-9 from 3 right now. After watching the first 3 big ten teams struggle with their shot it makes me very nervous about Bucknell tonight. That 2 week break is so dumb.

 

[UMRules06]

purdue is a great outside shooting team and is I think 1-9 from 3 right now. After watching the first 3 big ten teams struggle with their shot it makes me very nervous about Bucknell tonight. That 2 week break is so dumb.

Yeah I would definitely look for Ward and Jackson to get going early for MSU. Get some easy baskets to build momentum/confidence for everyone else.

 

[gotime909]

Yeah I would definitely look for Ward and Jackson to get going early for MSU. Get some easy baskets to build momentum/confidence for everyone else.

For some reason Izzo hasn?t had them play inside out. He seems to encourage Bridges to fire away. Been a strange season with him this year.

 

[biggunsbob]

Yup pound it in early and get Bridges, Jackson, or Ward some slams. Hopefully no tick-tack fouls will be called. Refs let them play !!!!

 

[biggunsbob]

Wichita st in trouble .

 

[Michchamp]

so far the Big Ten is 3-0.

long lay off maybe had a factor in our slow start, but not a huge one.

Purdue won it running away; didn't see the OSU game but it was an 8 pt win. not too shabby.

 

[Michchamp]

Wichita st in trouble .

I didn't have them or AZ doing much. or Cincy.

 

[biggunsbob]

Spoke to soon. Marshall clanks a free throw that could have given them a 8 point lead .. nope WS three makes it only a 3 point lead.

 

[biggunsbob]

Marshall misses a dunk. Great block by WS. Just pull it out and run clock if it's not a sure thing. Is ball of Marshall or was it hit off by a WS player ? I think call should stand and it should be Marshall's ball. Come on WS player hit it out. Marshall player never retouched it.