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beez
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Agree with everything from Jim rice down.
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Get Startedtycobb420 said:JimRice said:I think defensive metrics are still a work in progress. They are supposed to replace the eye test, but so much of the data is based on what a person sees when collecting data. And everyone sees things a bit differently.
I don't think there's any doubt that A-Jax is superior to Grandy in the field, but I don't see Curtis as being the worst in the game. That would be pretty surprising.
I agree. Defensive metrics might be impossible in the end.
mjsb2 said:tycobb420 said:I agree. Defensive metrics might be impossible in the end.
With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.
oh, scotty.tycobb420 said:mjsb2 said:With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.
and if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a wagon
tycobb420 said:mjsb2 said:With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.
and if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a wagon
mjsb2 said:tycobb420 said:I agree. Defensive metrics might be impossible in the end.
With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.
[color=#006400 said:Mitch[/color]]The biggest thing with Jackson over Granderson is Ajax has incredible reaction time. He breaks on a hit quicker than anyone.
JimRice said:mjsb2 said:With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.
I hope so. There are stats for everything, and I look forward to reliable defensive numbers.
One of my pet peeves is when someone quotes a two month UZR like it's some definitive measurement.
mjsb2 said:tycobb420 said:and if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a wagon
And if there were any "ifs" involved that statement would be relevant.
But there are none.
tycobb420 said:mjsb2 said:And if there were any "ifs" involved that statement would be relevant.
But there are none.
Most sabermetrics are at best assinine. Defensive sabermetrics are perhaps the worst even with your aludium PU-36 explosive space modulator. (Yes I am not mocking this).
rebbiv said:My two cents here. UZR and DRS are the current flavor of choice when discussing defensive metrics. Let's look at Granderson's UZR/150 over the years:
2006 = 13.6
2007 = 14.6
2008 = - 11.9
2009 = -1.4
2010 = 7.9
2011 = -12.7
Now, does someone's defense change 26.5 runs in one year? IMO, there is a flaw in the stat because of this. Granderson isn't the only one. Torii Hunter won 8 CC from 2002-2009 as a CFer and 4 of those years he had a negative UZR/150. Only once was his UZR/150 above 10. Now, arguably Hunter was the best defensive CFer in the AL during that time.
Andruw Jones won 6 CC from 2002-2007. Not once was his UZR/150 below 10 and 3 times in was over 20. In this case, the numbers match who was consider the best MLB defensive CFer.
All in all, as pointed out, there is no real good defensive metric. UZR/150 is the best available, but even most Sabermetrics cannot compute it. That aught to tell you something.
Now, as far as offensive stats, quite a few can be informative and/or predictive. By using linear weights, removing park bias and obtaining the right sample size, you should be able to predict future success or failure. Even this is not perfect. There was no predicting Jose Bautista prior to last year. Just like no predictions would have soon the year Dunn is having. Those are the anomalies and not the norm.
rebbiv said:My two cents here. UZR and DRS are the current flavor of choice when discussing defensive metrics. Let's look at Granderson's UZR/150 over the years:
2006 = 13.6
2007 = 14.6
2008 = - 11.9
2009 = -1.4
2010 = 7.9
2011 = -12.7
Now, does someone's defense change 26.5 runs in one year? IMO, there is a flaw in the stat because of this. Granderson isn't the only one. Torii Hunter won 8 CC from 2002-2009 as a CFer and 4 of those years he had a negative UZR/150. Only once was his UZR/150 above 10. Now, arguably Hunter was the best defensive CFer in the AL during that time.
Andruw Jones won 6 CC from 2002-2007. Not once was his UZR/150 below 10 and 3 times in was over 20. In this case, the numbers match who was consider the best MLB defensive CFer.
All in all, as pointed out, there is no real good defensive metric. UZR/150 is the best available, but even most Sabermetrics cannot compute it. That aught to tell you something.
Now, as far as offensive stats, quite a few can be informative and/or predictive. By using linear weights, removing park bias and obtaining the right sample size, you should be able to predict future success or failure. Even this is not perfect. There was no predicting Jose Bautista prior to last year. Just like no predictions would have soon the year Dunn is having. Those are the anomalies and not the norm.
JimRice said:rebbiv said:My two cents here. UZR and DRS are the current flavor of choice when discussing defensive metrics. Let's look at Granderson's UZR/150 over the years:
2006 = 13.6
2007 = 14.6
2008 = - 11.9
2009 = -1.4
2010 = 7.9
2011 = -12.7
Now, does someone's defense change 26.5 runs in one year? IMO, there is a flaw in the stat because of this. Granderson isn't the only one. Torii Hunter won 8 CC from 2002-2009 as a CFer and 4 of those years he had a negative UZR/150. Only once was his UZR/150 above 10. Now, arguably Hunter was the best defensive CFer in the AL during that time.
Andruw Jones won 6 CC from 2002-2007. Not once was his UZR/150 below 10 and 3 times in was over 20. In this case, the numbers match who was consider the best MLB defensive CFer.
All in all, as pointed out, there is no real good defensive metric. UZR/150 is the best available, but even most Sabermetrics cannot compute it. That aught to tell you something.
Now, as far as offensive stats, quite a few can be informative and/or predictive. By using linear weights, removing park bias and obtaining the right sample size, you should be able to predict future success or failure. Even this is not perfect. There was no predicting Jose Bautista prior to last year. Just like no predictions would have soon the year Dunn is having. Those are the anomalies and not the norm.
Really good stuff. The defensive stats are far behind the offensive ones.
A good example of offensive stats was A-Jax BABIP from 2010, which suggest his high average was unlikely to continue in 2011.
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