Rebuild .. forward to the future!

[Tigrrman]

https://tigersminorleaguereport.com/2019/12/18/detroit-tigers-5-year-outline/

 

[Tigrrman]

https://fandetroittigerbaseball.home.blog/2020/01/02/looking-ahead-2021-to-2023/

 

[tomdalton22]

https://fandetroittigerbaseball.home.blog/2020/01/02/looking-ahead-2021-to-2023/

I like the optimistic articles, but in reality, 70% of those guys will be busts.

 

[kalinecountry]

The Tigers do not have quality player development in the minors compared to most other teams.

 

[Tigrrman]

I like the optimistic articles, but in reality, 70% of those guys will be busts.

Highly doubt 14 of the 20 prospects listed will all become total 'busts'.

Highly doubt all 20 prospects would still be with the Tigers by 2023.

In fact, highly doubt even 10 of them will still be with the Tigers by 2023.

The key will be keeping the very best and trading the rest.

 

[Tigrrman]

The Tigers do not have quality player development in the minors compared to most other teams.

Can you please provide quantitative proof that "most" other teams have better player development in the minors than the Tigers do?

Actual proof and not mere opinion-based pessimism.

 

[kalinecountry]

Can you please provide quantitative proof that "most" other teams have better player development in the minors than the Tigers do?

Actual proof and not mere opinion-based pessimism.

Dude, most teams develop players and bring them up and the players succeed.

Who have the Tigers developed for position players in the last 5/10/15/20/25 years? Castellanos, Dirks, Avila, CrInge, Granderson, Higginson, The coaching in the Tigers minors is not conducive to pumping out players like on other teams.
Look young fellow, I love the Tigers since 1954, but can't stand this ownership and front office.
If you want to look at this front office with rose colored glasses and drink the kool-aid Avila, Ilitch, and the Tigers media put out, then have fun with it.

The Tigers continue to draft players they could have waited on a few round later, it's called reaching.

If you think I am pessimistic about this current Tigers situation, follow the game threads here check out the last 2/3 years worth.

 

[grandy]

Here's a good summary (drafts from 1996-2018)

DETROIT TIGERS

Total WAR for all drafted players: 345.4 (MLB rank: 26th)

Total WAR for drafted players who signed: 308.3 (rank: 21st)

Total WAR for drafted players who did not sign: 37.1

Impact players (10 WAR or more) drafted: 11 (rank: tie-25th)

Impact players drafted and signed: 9 (rank: tie-25th)

Most recent impact player drafted and signed: Alex Avila, 2008, fifth round (15.2 WAR)

Lowest pick for impact player drafted and signed: Matt Joyce, 2005, 12th round, pick No. 360 (14.2 WAR)

Best draft class, based on total WAR (impact players listed): 2004, 65.9 WAR (Justin Verlander)

Best draft class, counting signed players only: 2004, 65.9 WAR (Justin Verlander)

Highest pick: Matt Anderson, 1997; Casey Mize, 2018 (pick No. 1)

Best player drafted and signed, based on career WAR: Justin Verlander, 2004, first round, pick No. 2 (65.9 WAR)

Best player drafted who did not sign: D.J. LeMahieu, 2007, 41st round (19.2 WAR)

Best player drafted and signed from first round: Justin Verlander, 2004, pick No. 2 (65.9 WAR)

Details: The Tigers had a significant run of success on the field from 2006 through 2014, but much of that was due to trades and free agent signings. Verlander and Curtis Granderson (third round, 2002) were really the only stars added through the draft.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...k-at-baseballs-draft-from-1996-2018/39539549/

 

[Tigrrman]

Dude, most teams develop players and bring them up and the players succeed.

Who have the Tigers developed for position players in the last 5/10/15/20/25 years? Castellanos, Dirks, Avila, CrInge, Granderson, Higginson, The coaching in the Tigers minors is not conducive to pumping out players like on other teams.
Look young fellow, I love the Tigers since 1954, but can't stand this ownership and front office.
If you want to look at this front office with rose colored glasses and drink the kool-aid Avila, Ilitch, and the Tigers media put out, then have fun with it.

The Tigers continue to draft players they could have waited on a few round later, it's called reaching.

If you think I am pessimistic about this current Tigers situation, follow the game threads here check out the last 2/3 years worth.

First, ..my name is not "Dude".
Second, ..I do not drink the proverbial "kool-aid". In fact, I find that term offensive.
Third, ..I am not addicted to the Tiger's media. I can think for myself, Thank you very much!
Finally, ..I have both optimism and pessimism. Fortunately, my optimism makes me much happier than my pessimism ever could.

 

[Tigrrman]

Most recent impact player drafted and signed: Alex Avila, 2008, fifth round (15.2 WAR)

Details: The Tigers had a significant run of success on the field from 2006 through 2014, but much of that was due to trades and free agent signings. Verlander and Curtis Granderson (third round, 2002) were really the only stars added through the draft.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...k-at-baseballs-draft-from-1996-2018/39539549/

All the stats from your quote that I did not copy .. how are they relevant to the Tigers current farm system?
Because those were too long ago to provide any true insight into the current organization.
In fact ..nobody knows yet how the Chris Ilitch / Al Avila draft picks will ultimately pan out. Fact is, several knowledgeable 'prospect' rating sites have clearly suggested that most MLB teams would love to have the equivalent talent-level of the current Detroit Tiger prospects. And that is not including their 2020 picks.

Nevertheless, ..everything into their proper perspective. One should not simply look at any aggregate 15+ year span of time that basically provides nothing more than a book-cover draft analysis' ..without also factoring in every team's respective draft positions within that span of time.
Surely you are aware that the Tigers lost a few 1st round draft picks during their 2006 through 2014 MLB successes.

Moreover ..based upon your so-called 'proof' ..there seems to be no hope whatsoever for the Tigers for the next 10+ years because they never produce quality MLB players ???
So why be concerned at all what they do until then?

I choose optimism. If I am wrong ..oh well. At least I will still have a happy heart!

 

[Mitchrapp]

So basically Justin Verlander. Lol.

Based on history we aren't very good at it. Based on the past 3 years we aren't very good at it. Based on the guys we bring in they aren't very good at it. Based on the guys we got in trades for JV, JD, Castellanos, etc. they aren't very good at it.

Optimism has nothing to do with it. These are facts. I have optimism that Miggy will be back to MVP status but very unlikely. I also have Optimism that the Lions will win a SB but again, very unlikely.

Lastly, why do you seem you think we have to be 100% positive to have a happy heart. That is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

 

[Mitchrapp]

PS. I lied, I don't have Optimism the Lions will win a SB.

 

[Rebbiv]

It just to show you...anyone can post on a message board and anyone can create a webpage and spout drivel about player development (not necessarily the same person).



https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/


For the record, 700 of 900 (77.8%) pro-players won't even make it the majors.



17.6 percent of players who were drafted and signed ended up making it to the majors.


That is just making it to the majors. It isn't saying they will have productive careers. Those odds are even worse.

 

[kalinecountry]

I follow several minor league sites and always post the stories in the Tigers Minor League Notes thread here, including that first post in this thread on the 5 year outline by the Tigers Minor Leagues Report. iirc back on December 18, last month and year.

They also recently did this more recent story on why some draft picks miss.
https://tigersminorleaguereport.com/2020/01/10/what-are-some-reasons-that-top-mlb-draft-picks-miss/
What Are Some Reasons That Top MLB Draft Picks ?Miss??
TMLR

The Tigers last year drafted a position player with their first pick Riley Greene and a few more position players, gave me some hope, but some players have been a reach, drafting in say 3/4/5 round who they could have drafted in later rounds of the top ten. The Tigers scouting development and talent evaluators and their minor league player development still has much work to improve to what other teams have.
One weakness most players in the Tigers system is they draft players who are not adept at playing their position in the field; Stewart, Paredes, and I would guesstimate 90% have awful plate discipline which leaves most with low walk rates and low obp.

 

[tomdalton22]

Highly doubt 14 of the 20 prospects listed will all become total 'busts'.

Highly doubt all 20 prospects would still be with the Tigers by 2023.

In fact, highly doubt even 10 of them will still be with the Tigers by 2023.

The key will be keeping the very best and trading the rest.

for me, the key is to be really bad again this year (they are well on their way) and probably again in 2021 (top 5 pick). They need to get really lucky in these next 2 drafts, adding another 10 quality prospects, 2 being "blue chip"

That will give them about 30 "quality" prospects. Barring injury, I truly believe that 2 of the starting pitching prospects will be legit major league pitchers (Mize and another). Again, they need to get "lucky" and have a higher than normal percentage of the remaining 28 be serviceable ML players....maybe one star and 3-4 others being good every day players. If that happens, they will be contending for the division the year Miggy retires.

That's my "optimistic" outlook for the Tiger's future.

 

[tigermud]

PS. I lied, I don't have Optimism the Lions will win a SB.

I'm still sticking to my SB 57 Lions/Browns predication.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Not much time. 3 more seasons.

 

[turok]

Over/under for the Pistons winning 30 games and the Red Wings winning 20 this season?

With nearly 2/3 of the season finished for both, I will take the under.

The Red Wings are a lock to be the worst team by far in the NHL, and the Pistons still stand a good chance of being the 3rd worst in the NBA, both potentially matching their loser counterparts in the Tigers and Lions respectively.

I don't recall a worse era of being a Detroit sports fan. maybe the mid-70s are the closest, though.

 

[Tigrrman]

Over/under for the Pistons winning 30 games and the Red Wings winning 20 this season?

With nearly 2/3 of the season finished for both, I will take the under.

The Red Wings are a lock to be the worst team by far in the NHL, and the Pistons still stand a good chance of being the 3rd worst in the NBA, both potentially matching their loser counterparts in the Tigers and Lions respectively.

I don't recall a worse era of being a Detroit sports fan. maybe the mid-70s are the closest, though.

I'll guess ''under'' too.

This is the worst I have ever seen all 4 major Detroit sports teams at one time.

Optimistically, I think the Tigers could win 70 this year.

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

I'll guess ''under'' too.

This is the worst I have ever seen all 4 major Detroit sports teams at one time.

Optimistically, I think the Tigers could win 70 this year.

Obviously there is a common denominator in two of them. An absolute shell of his father.

The Pistons are more than likely doing the right thing but what they got in return for Dre was downright embarrassing.

It's sad to watch three franchises that have had serious bouts of success be this bad

I'm not a Lions fan lol