Remaining (football) season expectations

[Sbee]

Michigan just got bitch slapped by PSU. Just get past Northwestern and then let's see what happen against OSU and PSU. Should be fun.

PSU's offense looks really good, we'll need our best effort on D to be in that game. We'll have plenty of motivation from the beating last year, where PSU was trying to punch it in as time expired up by a million TD's, I think Frey got injured on one of those plays where most teams would be taking a knee. PSU/OSU are the best teams in the east, there's some separation between them and everyone else.

 

[Spartanmack]

They are better but we are playing so conservatively. Running up the middle and 6 yard outs arent going to win anything. We are predictable year after year. We really arent very good bt ill take the straw record of 6-1 for now..

agreed but that's not gonna change in two weeks - we are probably going to be just as conservative and predictable. unfortunately, I think psu has an offense that can make us pay for all the blitzing. okorn was able to side-step Frey, I hate to imagine how dumb mcsorely will make him look. I still want to be aggressive on D - i'd rather go down swinging than get beat playing soft but it could get ugly.

 

[Sbee]

One big positive with playing PSU is that we're getting them after the OSU game, which will be a battle. If you compare that to when Michigan got them, after a bye and at home nonetheless, we're in a much better situation after a tough game and playing in EL.

I still think we'll lose but if you believe it's not just who you play, it's when you play them, we're in better shape than Michigan was at least.

 

[Sbee]

They are better but we are playing so conservatively. Running up the middle and 6 yard outs arent going to win anything. We are predictable year after year. We really arent very good bt ill take the straw record of 6-1 for now..

yes and no, we stuck with the run for a long time. we just ran for almost 300 vs Minn and IU gave up almost that much against Michigan (not an offensive juggernaut) last week, so I didn't have a problem with the game plan being to pound the ball on the ground. On top of the running game not going well, Lewerke was very bad early, he threw a ball at sokols feet when he was wide open on a 3rd down play in the 3rd, then sailed white when they went for it on 4th.

Also, their play calling wasn't that predictable with a halfback pass on 3rd down, didn't like that play but that's not a boring run up the middle. We also did a good job of passing on 3rd and long on our last drive to pick up first downs. the tressel ball playbook says to run clock and give the ball to your defense, if those were incomplete and stopped the clock, we'd be pissed we didn't run the ball.

 

[Spartanmack]

i said the same thing about the timing of the game in an earlier post here but there are a couple scenarios where it's not an automatic positive. If they lose at OSU they could come out fired up knowing their hopes are still alive since osu still has to beat us and uofm. Also, if they pimp slap osu in Columbus, that will be further indication that they're for real and likely a much better team than us.

I do like that they have that game the week before but I'm hoping they win a close one and OSU exposes some chinks in their armor. Based on what I've seen, we'll need to play our best game of the year and may also need psu to be looking past us to something bigger.

The setting won't be quite the same as 1997 since it's not the last game of the season and we'll be ranked this year, but we'll likely be playing at top 5 psu team at home. Nothing would make me happier than a repeat of that game - the only home game I missed that year because I had to go to my sister's wedding. I can't find the box score but I think Irvin and Renaud both ran for 200 yards or something ridiculous like that and the defense completely shut down Curtis Enis.

 

[Michchamp]

back-to-back road games are tough to win.

in the back of my head, I dreaded seeing not just one, but two of them on our schedule this year, and both against teams we'd even struggle to beat at home (UW & PennSt).

so you guys have that going for you. it's almost like a free TD.

 

[MSUMatt28]

i said the same thing about the timing of the game in an earlier post here but there are a couple scenarios where it's not an automatic positive. If they lose at OSU they could come out fired up knowing their hopes are still alive since osu still has to beat us and uofm. Also, if they pimp slap osu in Columbus, that will be further indication that they're for real and likely a much better team than us.

I do like that they have that game the week before but I'm hoping they win a close one and OSU exposes some chinks in their armor. Based on what I've seen, we'll need to play our best game of the year and may also need psu to be looking past us to something bigger.

The setting won't be quite the same as 1997 since it's not the last game of the season and we'll be ranked this year, but we'll likely be playing at top 5 psu team at home. Nothing would make me happier than a repeat of that game - the only home game I missed that year because I had to go to my sister's wedding. I can't find the box score but I think Irvin and Renaud both ran for 200 yards or something ridiculous like that and the defense completely shut down Curtis Enis.

I think OSU is going to win that game. They are playing better since the Oklahoma loss and I don't see PSU being able to win that kind of road game as they should have lost at Iowa. I am not sure what it does for our chances vs PSU right after. If we are a good enough team to be up for the challenge then I think it's a plus. What I'm not sure of is if we're a good enough team for it to matter.

 

[Spartanmack]

I think OSU is going to win that game. They are playing better since the Oklahoma loss and I don't see PSU being able to win that kind of road game as they should have lost at Iowa. I am not sure what it does for our chances vs PSU right after. If we are a good enough team to be up for the challenge then I think it's a plus. What I'm not sure of is if we're a good enough team for it to matter.

Yeah, there are so many different ways to look at it and no way of proving which is more to our advantage - even after the outcome is known. Personally, I would prefer to play them after the close win with them maybe looking past us. A close loss at Columbus with a soft remaining schedule and osu having to beat us and uofm means they definitely have something to play for. But who the hell knows how they react to either and which is the better scenario for us - we still have to figure out a way to win.

I'm way more concerned about the apparent 3 headed monster of their offense (Barkley, Hamilton, McSorley) than I am about what happens in Columbus next week and how either team responds. Hell, we have to make sure we don't fall asleep on the mildcats before worrying about the kittens or the buckeyes for that matter.

 

[Spartanmack]

back-to-back road games are tough to win.

in the back of my head, I dreaded seeing not just one, but two of them on our schedule this year, and both against teams we'd even struggle to beat at home (UW & PennSt).

so you guys have that going for you. it's almost like a free TD.

do you have Wisco next week? I thought IU then psu were your back-to-back road games...

Hard to say if wisco is for real or not given that the rest of the B1G West is pretty much garbage (Wisco is only team above .500 in B1G play). They couldn't put Purdue away at home and didn't exactly blowout Nebraska or NW - I guess they did have a 3 score lead on NW but they were trailing at half, then kinda ran away from them but pulled a Dantonio and let them back in.

Just looked up your schedule and see what you mean - 2 diff back-to-backs, one ending w/ @psu, the other ends @wisco. That's no fun but not as bad as @psu followed by@wisco.

 

[johnny2x2x]

This team reminds me of the 2010 MSU team in that we have a lot of young talent that just finds ways to win ugly. They don't flash and they don't blow anyone out, they just find ways to win. 6-1 is great, but I don't have any illusions of being a playoff contender with this team.

The Northwestern Game is huge, we are a 1 point dog. Win this weekend and we are virtually guaranteed a 9-3 season or better. That would be a heckuva a rebound season and with all the youth starting and contributing the future is extremely bright. You can see the players on this team who are going to be stars. Bachie, Josiah Scott, Raquan, both Panusiuks, D Dowell, Randle, Layne, Willikes, Cody White, Luke Campbell, Hunter Rison, Jarvis, Chewins, and Stewart all have All Big Ten or All American potential and are all sophomores or younger. Lewerke is still only in his 9th start and he's going to be a stud for the next 2-1/2 years. What a difference a few months make for the outlook of the program's future.

 

[Michchamp]

do you have Wisco next week? I thought IU then psu were your back-to-back road games...

Hard to say if wisco is for real or not given that the rest of the B1G West is pretty much garbage (Wisco is only team above .500 in B1G play). They couldn't put Purdue away at home and didn't exactly blowout Nebraska or NW - I guess they did have a 3 score lead on NW but they were trailing at half, then kinda ran away from them but pulled a Dantonio and let them back in.

Just looked up your schedule and see what you mean - 2 diff back-to-backs, one ending w/ @psu, the other ends @wisco. That's no fun but not as bad as @psu followed by@wisco.

yeah, UW has played a weak SOS, and would probably have a loss or two playing in the East, but I know that playing them in Madison gives them an advantage, and putting that game second in a sequence of back-to-back road games gives us even less of a chance to win. whoever created the Big Ten schedule this year must hate us.

there was a guy who used to post on the Michigan ESPN board who had some stats on the winning percentage of back-to-back road games; I can't remember if it was a matter of losing or just not covering the spread, and I couldn't find anything on it online, as it pertained to CFB. But I do remember him talking about bad things happening more than usual in the back end of a 2 game road trip.

I don't know if it means MSU will beat Penn St, but it should be closer than expected.

I want to say that they weren't THAT good... like aside from Barkley's 69 yard TD run off a direct snap our safeties were out of position on, he had like 14 runs for 38 yards or something the rest of the game. but when we focused on him, the rest of their offense gashed us.

has to be the best PennSt team I've seen since the early 90's at least. usually they have some weak link on offense, like a bad QB, or no receivers, but not this team.

 

[Spartanmack]

yeah, UW has played a weak SOS, and would probably have a loss or two playing in the East, but I know that playing them in Madison gives them an advantage, and putting that game second in a sequence of back-to-back road games gives us even less of a chance to win. whoever created the Big Ten schedule this year must hate us.

there was a guy who used to post on the Michigan ESPN board who had some stats on the winning percentage of back-to-back road games; I can't remember if it was a matter of losing or just not covering the spread, and I couldn't find anything on it online, as it pertained to CFB. But I do remember him talking about bad things happening more than usual in the back end of a 2 game road trip.

I don't know if it means MSU will beat Penn St, but it should be closer than expected.

I want to say that they weren't THAT good... like aside from Barkley's 69 yard TD run off a direct snap our safeties were out of position on, he had like 14 runs for 38 yards or something the rest of the game. but when we focused on him, the rest of their offense gashed us.

has to be the best PennSt team I've seen since the early 90's at least. usually they have some weak link on offense, like a bad QB, or no receivers, but not this team.

I'm not sure how much stats like that are really worth in terms of predictive value. I remember in the early 2000s when we happened to have a better conversion rate on 3rd and long than on 3rd and short. I'd be watching games and every time we'd have 3rd and 3 or less some jackass announcer would say stupid shit like "The Spartans would actually be better off in 3rd and long than they are in this situation." I'd just be thinking "how does this moron get this job?"

the back end of 2 game road trip data may be more reliable but there are so many factors at play, not the least of which is that road games are just tougher in general. hard to say how much more likely uofm wud have been to beat PSU if the order was reversed (or if it really increases their odds of losing to IU). I think you'd need solid data on teams that get upset losing at a higher rate than would be predicted by the odds.

 

[johnny2x2x]

I say 8-4 or 9-3. We'll lose a game we aren't supposed to, but if we upset someone we will be 9-3. Next year I like us to make another run at the playoffs.

9-3.... beat OSU and we will go to Indy and play for another Big Ten Title.

Dantonio is the man.

 

[Sbee]

yeah, UW has played a weak SOS, and would probably have a loss or two playing in the East, but I know that playing them in Madison gives them an advantage, and putting that game second in a sequence of back-to-back road games gives us even less of a chance to win. whoever created the Big Ten schedule this year must hate us.

there was a guy who used to post on the Michigan ESPN board who had some stats on the winning percentage of back-to-back road games; I can't remember if it was a matter of losing or just not covering the spread, and I couldn't find anything on it online, as it pertained to CFB. But I do remember him talking about bad things happening more than usual in the back end of a 2 game road trip.

I don't know if it means MSU will beat Penn St, but it should be closer than expected.

I want to say that they weren't THAT good... like aside from Barkley's 69 yard TD run off a direct snap our safeties were out of position on, he had like 14 runs for 38 yards or something the rest of the game. but when we focused on him, the rest of their offense gashed us.

has to be the best PennSt team I've seen since the early 90's at least. usually they have some weak link on offense, like a bad QB, or no receivers, but not this team.

You guys should beat Wisconsin, you have the next Andrew Luck at QB who threw for 180 yards combined against Minnesota and Rutgers.