The Game - pre-game discussion thread

[Michchamp]

in case anyone is mildly interested in discussing this one...

For an 11-0 vs. 11-0 I'm not getting the sense there's as much hype going into this game as there was in 2006.

Maybe because in '06 it hadn't happened since the 70's.

Or because there wasn't a Big Ten championship the next week or a CFB playoff a month later?

Oh well... who cares what happened 16 years ago.

Both of these teams have some serious weaknesses, and while OSU did beat a solid ND team, a lot has happened since then. Based on the W/L records of opponents, our SOS's aren't as much different as pundits would have you believe and the record vs. common opponents is inconclusive.

OSU struggled vs. some teams we didn't and vice versa.

Their glaring weakness is their run defense... which plays into our strength as a running team. But maybe not as much if Corum and Edwards aren't able to go.

Our weakness is our passing game; last year for all the hate McNamara got, at least he could hit a deep pass to keep OSU off balance. Still remains to be seen whether McCarthy can. His receivers aren't helping either...

 

[bphillips4gg]

All I remember from 2006 was Braylon dropping the 4th down pass that OSU was conceding and that the next pick 4 drawing in Ohio was 4239. Then not only did we nearly get a rematch for the national title game (Florida almost lost to Arkansas in the SEC championship game) but both we and OSU got blown out in the bowl games. Us by USC in our last rose bowl appearance (I think?) and them by Tebow in the Natty. Pretty sure that is when the whole SEC supremacy thing started.

 

[Spartanmack]

Vegas likes the buckeyes - has them laying 9 or 9.5 to open, depending on the book. I'm sure a lot of uofm money will pile on that and bring it in a bit as they have one of the biggest homer gambling bases in the country. I just checked - it's already at uofm +7.5 pretty much everywhere.

 

[Spartanmack]

did uofm OT Ryan Hayes misspeak, or did he accidentally let some big news slip, or is this gamesmanship?

 

[tomdalton22]

OSU and UM have 6 common opponents

some stats from those games (averages)

Points
OSU won with an average score of 49-19
UM 36-15

Yards per game
OSU 484
UM 450

Yards allowed per game
OSU 283
UM 267

Rushing yards per game
OSU 192
UM 259

Rushing yards allowed per game
OSU 89
UM 57

 

[tomdalton22]

Vegas likes the buckeyes - has them laying 9 or 9.5 to open, depending on the book. I'm sure a lot of uofm money will pile on that and bring it in a bit as they have one of the biggest homer gambling bases in the country. I just checked - it's already at uofm +7.5 pretty much everywhere.

I already have some action UM +8.5

I really like that bet

 

[Spartanmack]

I already have some action UM +8.5

I really like that bet

Good luck - another reason to hope for a uofm win. I'm not as confident so I'm probably not touching it. It very well could be a close game which obviously could go either way but if uofm has trouble in the red zone again and it's not another day like last year with wind blowing rain sideways (and Ryan Day trying to throw into it) I can see osu covering.

Conversely, I don't think uofm is explosive enough to steamroll the buckeyes, especially this late in the season - back in October, well that's a different story but this game isn't being played in October.

 

[Michchamp]

All I remember from 2006 was Braylon dropping the 4th down pass that OSU was conceding and that the next pick 4 drawing in Ohio was 4239. Then not only did we nearly get a rematch for the national title game (Florida almost lost to Arkansas in the SEC championship game) but both we and OSU got blown out in the bowl games. Us by USC in our last rose bowl appearance (I think?) and them by Tebow in the Natty. Pretty sure that is when the whole SEC supremacy thing started.

Braylon graduated already and wasn't on the roster for 2006. We had Manningham, Arrington and Breaston that year. Here's the box score from that game.

I think we should have won that damn game. And I think we wouldn't have fallen apart like a wet deck of cards against UF like OSU did.

It's gone down in history as "both UM and OSU lost their bowls anyway" but neither result was the same. we were tied with USC 3-3 at the half, and the game was basically equal except Booty completed two bombs to Jarrett in the 3rd and 4th Qs. they couldn't run on us.

OSU-UF was 34-14 at the half, and that included a KR Td on the first play of the game. OSU's offense had one scoring drive all day.

 

[Michchamp]

I saw someone post that (based on recruiting rankings) we're the 14th most talented team in the country. OSU is third...

I'm guessing it was similar last year.

 

[Michchamp]

OSU and UM have 6 common opponents

some stats from those games (averages)

Points
OSU won with an average score of 49-19
UM 36-15

Yards per game
OSU 484
UM 450

Yards allowed per game
OSU 283
UM 267

Rushing yards per game
OSU 192
UM 259

Rushing yards allowed per game
OSU 89
UM 57

based on common opponents last year, I would never have guessed The Game would play out the way it did. That first series when we had like a 3rd and 2 and just blew OSU off the ball for an easy gain, I was amazed.

They sailed through the Big Ten schedule and blew out MSU. I really thought they were going to be tougher in the trenches than us.

no idea what to expect this year... we should be easier to game plan for than last year. Day and Knowles have to be hammering on the DL and linebackers to man up.

 

[Spartanmack]

Braylon graduated already and wasn't on the roster for 2006. We had Manningham, Arrington and Breaston that year. Here's the box score from that game.

I think we should have won that damn game. And I think we wouldn't have fallen apart like a wet deck of cards against UF like OSU did.

It's gone down in history as "both UM and OSU lost their bowls anyway" but neither result was the same. we were tied with USC 3-3 at the half, and the game was basically equal except Booty completed two bombs to Jarrett in the 3rd and 4th Qs. they couldn't run on us.

OSU-UF was 34-14 at the half, and that included a KR Td on the first play of the game. OSU's offense had one scoring drive all day.

This is pure revisionist history. I was at that Rose Bowl, the difference was way more than two bombs. USC utterly dominated that second half. USC made adjustments and threw all over uofm while uofm kept trying the same shit that led to 3 pts in the 1st half. They had drives where they averaged 9.5, 14, 12.2 and 21.3 yards per play. True, they had 1 drive where they averaged 2yds/play but that was because Booty threw 5 incompletes - their running back never touched the ball that drive. And if you think uofm's rush defense was dominant - USC had 4x more rushing yards and 5x more yards per carry than uofm did.

USC scored on every 2nd half drive until late in the 4th quarter when they finally punted after they were up 3 TDs but not until they ate 3 of the last 5 minutes off the clock. Their 2nd half lead was 2 or 3 scores most of the way. The overall stat sheet is deceiving because of a 70yd garbage time TD drive when uofm was down 21 pts. It was a complete, thorough and total ass kicking.

 

[bphillips4gg]

Braylon graduated already and wasn't on the roster for 2006. We had Manningham, Arrington and Breaston that year. Here's the box score from that game.

Urite. Braylon's drop was 2004.

 

[UMRules06]

This game is the reason I was on board the JJ train to start the year over Cade. I thought he had the most upside and therefore gave us the best chance to possibly win a game at the Shoe for the first time since 2000. Unfortunately he just hasn't shown that "take over a game" type ability the way we all hoped he would.

Part of it is offensive philosophy, play calling, and maybe our WRs not being super elite. However I've also noticed JJ missing throws he should make. Not sold on his footwork right now and I am not convinced he can overcome a big deficit if we find ourselves down a couple scores early.

It will be crucial to control the ball and play mistake free football. Classic road underdog type stuff. Let OSU make the mistakes and avoid giving up the big plays (while hopefully sneaking in one or two ourselves).

I was much more confident before the Illinois game we'd put up a fight and potentially win. But between JJ just looking very ordinary lately, and Corum getting hurt I feel we have a mountain to climb.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Good luck - another reason to hope for a uofm win. I'm not as confident so I'm probably not touching it. It very well could be a close game which obviously could go either way but if uofm has trouble in the red zone again and it's not another day like last year with wind blowing rain sideways (and Ryan Day trying to throw into it) I can see osu covering.

Conversely, I don't think uofm is explosive enough to steamroll the buckeyes, especially this late in the season - back in October, well that's a different story but this game isn't being played in October.

Okay.

But what if this game was gonna be played in early January, on NC game day?

What about THAT?

 

[tinselwolverine]

This is pure revisionist history. I was at that Rose Bowl, the difference was way more than two bombs. USC utterly dominated that second half. USC made adjustments and threw all over uofm while uofm kept trying the same shit that led to 3 pts in the 1st half. They had drives where they averaged 9.5, 14, 12.2 and 21.3 yards per play. True, they had 1 drive where they averaged 2yds/play but that was because Booty threw 5 incompletes - their running back never touched the ball that drive. And if you think uofm's rush defense was dominant - USC had 4x more rushing yards and 5x more yards per carry than uofm did.

USC scored on every 2nd half drive until late in the 4th quarter when they finally punted after they were up 3 TDs but not until they ate 3 of the last 5 minutes off the clock. Their 2nd half lead was 2 or 3 scores most of the way. The overall stat sheet is deceiving because of a 70yd garbage time TD drive when uofm was down 21 pts. It was a complete, thorough and total ass kicking.

I was at that Rose Bowl too!

As the first half was ending, my wife turned to me and said ?USC is a second half team, aren?t they??

She knew that because she lives here and she lives with me.

She was right - USC was 2nd half team that year.

 

[Spartanmack]

Okay.

But what if this game was gonna be played in early January, on NC game day?

What about THAT?

I'm unclear on how it works, all I can say is back in October certain teams would almost certainly get steamrolled by a certain other team. But those same teams maybe (or maybe even probably) wouldn't get steamrolled by that same team late in the season.

Presumably the later in the season, the greater the probability those teams could get steamroled decreases. Again, I don't know how it works as it's not my theory - maybe the genius who came up with it can shed some light on it.

 

[Spartanmack]

I was at that Rose Bowl too!

As the first half was ending, my wife turned to me and said ?USC is a second half team, aren?t they??

She knew that because she lives here and she lives with me.

She was right - USC was 2nd half team that year.

I was in the stands with my brother and said, "I think Lloyd Carr is going to make adjustments in the 2nd half" then I called my bookie and plopped $500 on uofm plus the points in the second half. I might as well have just lit the money on fire right there in the stands.

I told that story to a high school friend who went to michigan at a party later that year. He just laughed and said, "Lloyd Carr doesn't make second half adjustments. Everyone knows that."

 

[Michchamp]

Looking back at the stats and score of a game is "revisionist history," but what some drunk guy said at a party 16 years ago is not.

We are truly lucky to have your insights in this thread... please tell us who will win the game and why, using your razor sharp intellect.

 

[jever4321]

I feel like our guys are gonna pick stroud 2-3 times

 

[Spartanmack]

Looking back at the stats and score of a game is "revisionist history," but what some drunk guy said at a party 16 years ago is not.

We are truly lucky to have your insights in this thread... please tell us who will win the game and why, using your razor sharp intellect.

no, looking back at the stats isn't revisionist history but that's not what you did. You actually didn't cite any stats - I checked, the stat sheet doesn't say "other than 2 bombs boozer threw to Jarrett, the game was close." When you look closely at the stats like I did, they actually prove uofm was out-coached, out-played and completely out-classed. Only a uofm fan who doesn't care that he has no credibility would cherry pick stats to dishonestly claim the game basically came down to 2 plays.

As for my anecdote about the conversation with my friend, that's also not revisionist history. It's an amusing story about a stupid bet I made when I should have known better. It has no bearing on whether or not uofm got destroyed in that game. And as I recall, it was pretty early on in the night - we probably weren't even drunk yet.

Edit: the best part of your "stat research" has to be "blah, blah, blah...They couldn't run on us." LOL, 'we're down 3 TDs and USC has 289 yds passing in the first 25 minutes of the 2nd hlf without calling a single running play but hey, they can't run on us!' Check the stats, it's true USC didn't hand the ball off once in 4 drives. But, looking at the STATS, it turns out they actually could run against you. When USC finally did run the ball to run out the clock, they averaged 5.6yds per carry. So when uofm knew they weren't going to run, USC threw for 289yd, 3 TDs and a FG on 4 drives and when uofm knew they weren't going to throw, USC rushed for 5.6 ypc and killed 60% of the remaining clock before punting for the first time and giving uofm a garbage time TD to make the score look less bad than the actual game.

But you go ahead and stick to your claim that it was a close game - like I said, you can't hurt your credibility because you have none.