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Michchamp
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ROSE BOWL GAME - College Football Playoff Semifinal - Monday, January 1, 2024 at 5:10 PM Eastern, on ESPN, #1 Michigan vs. #4 Alabama
Line: UM -2 (opened -2.5)
o/u: 44.5
Sagarin predictor: UM by ~5 pts.
About our opponent: I made this photo/video collage in their honor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrimMyOoEDA
Background: Well... who knows how this one will go? if you go back to Mid-September, Alabama was looking like a Program on the decline, after missing the playoffs in 2022. They were 2-1, with one easy win over MTSU, a lousy win over a middling USF team, and a tough home loss to a good Texas team (that of course eventually made the playoffs as well, but looked shaky at times). Since then, Alabama has played pretty good football, through a tough schedule (Sagarin ranks their S.O.S. 10th, vs. 60th for us).
ON THE OTHER HAND... Bama came close to missing the playoffs this year... they trailed at the half @Texas A&M... struggled with Arkansas at home... and of course needed a comedy of errors by Auburn to win that game at the buzzer.
Personally I don't know what to think; on paper, I think we're a better team, tougher and more disciplined. But I've had those thoughts so many times in my life before the post-season, only to see Michigan show up and get clobbered in a bowl game.
I do think this team is different, and having gotten burned two years in a row, is not going to sleepwalk into this one expecting an easy win. So there's that.
Bama's players are running their mouths a lot more... and I feel fairly certain that most of the country is expecting Bama to win this one, especially since OSU, and now PSU have gotten rolled by comparable SEC teams.
Stats Watch!... UM ... UA
Total Defense: 1st ... 17th (we give up about 70 ypg less)
Total Offense: 68th ... 53rd (they avg. about 20 ypg more)
Pass Eff Def.: 5th ... 16th
Rush Defense: 5th ... 31st
Red Zone Def.: 3rd ... 49th
Pass Eff. Off.: 5th ... 7th
Rush Offense: 60th ... 46th (they avg. 10 ypg more)
Turnover Margin: 2nd (+1.3) ... 18th (+.6)
Penalties/Game: 1st (2.9) ... 62nd (5.8)
Sacks Allowed: 28th (1.3/g) ... 115th (3.3/g) (wow...)
Sacks made: 36th (2.5/g) ... 12th (2.9/g)
Our defense seems a little better; both offenses are comparable statistically, although theirs seems a little more error prone. If we play our game, we should prevail. IF... IF ... IF.
So go ahead and make your predictions, and post some analysis if you so choose, but as always, leave the woofing and barking for other threads.
