Tigers looking at Choo for LF

[byco42]

Choo stole 21 bases last year. Plus aren't paying him to be cf. If he can play better defense than jhonny damon withz his offense I'd be happy.

He was caught 11 times. That virtually eliminates the advantage gained in RE by the successful steals. The break-even point is around 70%. In fact, it probably cost the Reds a fraction of a run or two on the year. Even going 30 for 30 would net about 3 or so runs.

For all of Henderson's 130 steals in '82, his 46 CS's only netted the team an additional 1.6 runs on the season.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Grandy comes with HRs, Walks, On Base, good Stolen Base percentage and underrated defense. You want Choo who only gets on base on plays worse defense than Grandy and will cost more?

Where do you get underrated defense from? Yeah, he hits HR but how many that he isn't in a ban box, 25-30? OBP, you mean .317, .319? SB, 18 the last two years. And don't forget his 180-200 strike outs and his .403 OPS RISP 2013.

Oh yeah, you just changed my mind..

 

[Rebbiv]

Where do you get underrated defense from? Yeah, he hits HR but how many that he isn't in a ban box, 25-30? OBP, you mean .317, .319? SB, 18 the last two years. And don't forget his 180-200 strike outs and his .403 OPS RISP 2013.

Oh yeah, you just changed my mind..

Granderson Last 3 years away (NOT Yankee stadium)

.333 OBP .482 SLG .815 OPS 9.03 PA/BB 20.10 PA/HR

Strike outs are not always a negative stat when you draw walks and hit home runs. 20.10 PA/HR over the course of a season is on park with Cabrera's 18.03.

You are reaching Mitch. Your disdain for certain players and the desire to take the opposite view of mine causes you to no objectively look at thinks.

 

[Rebbiv]

And. not sure what defensive metric people want to use, but there are flaws in them all (UZR/150, DRS, etc). Granderson does not go from elite status in UZR/150 (13.0 in 2006 and 14.8 in 2007) to being bad in UZR/150 in 2008 (- 11.8) without some kind of flaw.

Granderson has been average defensive in CF in his career. There is nothing that would suggest he wouldn't at least be average in LF. To state otherwise is ignoring the body of work and only focusing on small samples.

 

[biggunsbob]

Choo has good numbers at Comerica..

 

[stonecold2136]

I would rather have Beltran or Choo than Ellsbury

 

[spockmaster]

Than ellsbury maybe, but not over Choo.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Granderson Last 3 years away (NOT Yankee stadium)

.333 OBP .482 SLG .815 OPS 9.03 PA/BB 20.10 PA/HR

Strike outs are not always a negative stat when you draw walks and hit home runs. 20.10 PA/HR over the course of a season is on park with Cabrera's 18.03.

You are reaching Mitch. Your disdain for certain players and the desire to take the opposite view of mine causes you to no objectively look at thinks.

Opposite view of yours? Hardly. We just differ, you use certain stats to judge a player that I don't. Except you always think you're right and never consider my opinion or others.

K's do matter even if one does hit home runs. Its not like he's striking out 100 times a season but double that. Walk rates to what? His k to walk rate stinks. Because his average is so damn low, 4 of last 5 years of less than .330 OBP does not excite me. He's one dimensional.

 

[Rebbiv]

Opposite view of yours? Hardly. We just differ, you use certain stats to judge a player that I don't. Except you always think you're right and never consider my opinion or others.

K's do matter even if one does hit home runs. Its not like he's striking out 100 times a season but double that. Walk rates to what? His k to walk rate stinks. Because his average is so damn low, 4 of last 5 years of less than .330 OBP does not excite me. He's one dimensional.

You use stats? Wow. And here you stated you only use your eyes to evaluate players.

I am open-minded and consider all points of view. I have yet seen you make a logical, quantitative argument.

Comparison:

Last 4 years Away

Player A = 81.9 RC/650 .269 BAVG .330 OBP .418 SLG .748 OPS 13.6 PA/BB 3.8 PA/SO 47.6 PA/BB

Player B = 91.8 RC/650 .236 BAVG .328 OBP .468 SLG .796 OPS 9.4 PA/BB 3.8 PA/SO 21.4 PA/BB

Player C = 89.5 RC/650 .284 BAVG .344 OBP .452 SLG .795 OPS 12.8 PA/BB 4.9 PA/SO 31.2 PA/BB

AVG AL CF = 80.9 RC/650 .262 BAVG .323 OBP .415 SLG .738 OPS 13.4 PA/BB 5.0 PA/SO 38.1 PA/BB

Player B's is only substandard in BAVG (a piss poor stat by itself) and strike out rate. And a strike outs count the same as any other out.

So, Player A = Austin Jackson, Player B = Granderson and Player C = Hunter using park neutral stats the last 4 years. Just factoring offense alone, Granderson is 2 wins better than Jackson.

Granderson turned down the Yankee's Qualifying Offer ($14.1 MIL), so he is expecting to make more. $14.1 MIL a year for Granderson is a reach, but it is what Hunter is going to make in 2014, and Granderson is a better player than Hunter given age.

One dimensional is a joke. He walks, he steals bases (better rate than Jackson), he hits for power. He does not ground into double plays and he less than average at swinging at the first pitch.

 

[Mitchrapp]

18 bases in 2 years is hardly stealing bases. So how many runs did he create by his 8 sb 2 cs 2013? I get that in today's game guys like him get paid, same with Hunter doesn't mean I think it would be a good deal.

He doesn't hit in many double plays because he's a fly ball hitter who strikeouts a ton. That's not a good thing.

 

[Rebbiv]

18 bases in 2 years is hardly stealing bases. So how many runs did he create by his 8 sb 2 cs 2013? I get that in today's game guys like him get paid, same with Hunter doesn't mean I think it would be a good deal.

He doesn't hit in many double plays because he's a fly ball hitter who strikeouts a ton. That's not a good thing.

You do realize GIDP are far worse than a ton of strike outs, right? A left handed hitter who gets out of the batters box equals something.

Last 3 years

Granderson 43 SB 15 CS 74.1% in 1620 PAs, or a rate of 17 SB 6 CS per 650 PA

Jackson 42 SB 18 CS 70.0% in 1899 PAs, or a rate of 14 SB 6 CS per 650 PA

 

[Monster]

why are people talking about stolen bases? All I want are players who know how to run the fucking bases and don't get thrown out at second on what should be a stand up double.

Fielder was a fat piece of shit that got tired at the end of every year and breathed hard after one of his 25-30 HR per year. Good riddance to the vegetarian chocolate stay puft cancer.

 

[byco42]

why are people talking about stolen bases? All I want are players who know how to run the fucking bases and don't get thrown out at second on what should be a stand up double.

Fielder was a fat piece of shit that got tired at the end of every year and breathed hard after one of his 25-30 HR per year. Good riddance to the vegetarian chocolate stay puft cancer.

And welcome to a player (Kinsler) who adds less aggregate value to the lineup.

 

[Mitchrapp]

You do realize GIDP are far worse than a ton of strike outs, right? A left handed hitter who gets out of the batters box equals something.

Last 3 years

Granderson 43 SB 15 CS 74.1% in 1620 PAs, or a rate of 17 SB 6 CS per 650 PA

Jackson 42 SB 18 CS 70.0% in 1899 PAs, or a rate of 14 SB 6 CS per 650 PA

I don't care how he compares with Jackson. I'm not sure how you got here. So 3 SB a year does what for you?

You mention Kinsler and his bad SB% but not his very good XBT, 61% - 3th in the majors 2013. Career 55%. You always leave out numbers that don't support your argument.

 

[UMRules06]

What are the chances of packaging Porcello and Nick C. to Miami for Giancarlo Stanton? Obviously that'd be wonderful for the Tigers to get Stanton, but would Miami bite on that type of deal? I haven't heard much discussion about him lately.

 

[Mitchrapp]

You do realize GIDP are far worse than a ton of strike outs, right? A left handed hitter who gets out of the batters box equals something.

Last 3 years

Granderson 43 SB 15 CS 74.1% in 1620 PAs, or a rate of 17 SB 6 CS per 650 PA

Jackson 42 SB 18 CS 70.0% in 1899 PAs, or a rate of 14 SB 6 CS per 650 PA

Because 1 out is better than 2? You'll need to dig deeper. Maybe the double play happens with guy on 1st one out 9th inning trailing by 6. Or the strikeout happens down by 1 guy on 3rd one out in 9th inning.

Its too simple to say a DP is worse than a strikeout.

 

[Mitchrapp]

What are the chances of packaging Porcello and Nick C. to Miami for Giancarlo Stanton? Obviously that'd be wonderful for the Tigers to get Stanton, but would Miami bite on that type of deal? I haven't heard much discussion about him lately.

After the nose dive this season maybe you can get Stanton cheaper.

 

[UMRules06]

Because 1 out is better than 2? You'll need to dig deeper. Maybe the double play happens with guy on 1st one out 9th inning trailing by 6. Or the strikeout happens down by 1 guy on 3rd one out in 9th inning.

Its too simple to say a DP is worse than a strikeout.

You can easily reverse those propositions though, and say what if the double play happens in the 9th trailing by 1 with runners on first and second 1 out? What if a strikeout comes trailing by 6 in the ninth inning? You have to pretty much assume that any potential scenario you can come up with will occur at random.

So yes, in general you'd have to say a double play is worse than a strikeout because two outs is worse than one. It is that simple to me anyway. I will say that I don't agree with the idea that strikeouts are just the same as any other regular out. Putting the ball in play advances runners, and can lead to fielding errors. There are more possibilities for positive outcomes when the ball is put in play vs. simply standing at home plate striking out.

 

[Mitchrapp]

You can easily reverse those propositions though, and say what if the double play happens in the 9th trailing by 1 with runners on first and second 1 out? What if a strikeout comes trailing by 6 in the ninth inning? You have to pretty much assume that any potential scenario you can come up with will occur at random.

So yes, in general you'd have to say a double play is worse than a strikeout because two outs is worse than one. It is that simple to me anyway. I will say that I don't agree with the idea that strikeouts are just the same as any other regular out. Putting the ball in play advances runners, and can lead to fielding errors. There are more possibilities for positive outcomes when the ball is put in play vs. simply standing at home plate striking out.

I agree 100%. But to say one is better than another is too simple.

 

[Rebbiv]

You can easily reverse those propositions though, and say what if the double play happens in the 9th trailing by 1 with runners on first and second 1 out? What if a strikeout comes trailing by 6 in the ninth inning? You have to pretty much assume that any potential scenario you can come up with will occur at random.

So yes, in general you'd have to say a double play is worse than a strikeout because two outs is worse than one. It is that simple to me anyway. I will say that I don't agree with the idea that strikeouts are just the same as any other regular out. Putting the ball in play advances runners, and can lead to fielding errors. There are more possibilities for positive outcomes when the ball is put in play vs. simply standing at home plate striking out.

Pop outs (fair and foul), infield flies, line drive double plays.

Sac hits and sac flies are covered as a stat and a positive even.

Bottom line, a runner on 1st base less than 2 out happens about 1/4 of the time. In 650 PAs, that is roughly 163. If a hitter's on base is .333, then he makes about 109 outs in those situations. Of those 109, Granderson would strike out 44 times. AL league average is 33 times.

We are talking 11 out difference over the course of a season with a runner on 1st base less than outs. Granderson would average 7 GIDP. The AVERAGE AL hitter would average 18 GIDP. Difference = 11

Those are verified rates and not something I am just drawing out of a hat.