the thing that is hard to determine...what games are the result of a better offense or going against shitty pitching? For example...this game the Tigers have the better offense (higher OPS, OBP and BA) but the Indians have put up 10 runs and the better offense has put up one. Is that a result of the Indians being a good offense or just going against shitty pitching?
Smoke and mirrors.
DET offense against teams under .500 = 5.3 runs per game
DET offense against team over .500 = 4.4 runs per game
5.9 runs per game VS NL teams
4.7 runs per game vs AL teams
5.2 runs per game at home
4.6 runs per game away
DET playing an AL team over .500 away. Add the fact they hit RH starters worse than LH starters. Doesn't seem like a formula for success.
DET record when scoring 5 runs or more per starter:
Fulmer (10-2) = 7-0 when scoring 5 runs, 3-2 when not
Zimmermann (10-5) = 7-1 when scoring 5 runs, 3-4 when not
Verlander (10-7) = 7-0 when scoring 5 runs, 3-7 when not
Pelfrey (7-9) = 7-3 when scoring 5 runs, 0-6 when not
Sanchez (3-9) = 3-3 when scoring 5 runs, 0-6 when not
Norris (2-1) = 2-0 when scoring 5 runs, 0-1 when not
Greene (1-2) = 1-1 when scoring 5 runs, 0-1 when not
Boyd (1-4) = 0-2 when scoring 5 runs, 1-2 when not
27-8 when scoring 5 runs, 10-29 when not
DET when neither team scores 5 runs
Fulmer 3-0
Verlander 3-2
Zimmermann 3-2
Boyd 1-0
Sanchez 0-1
Pelfrey 0-4
10-9 when neither team scores 5 runs
Bottom line, there are a lot of 10-3 games, 8-2 or 7-1 games in baseball than 3-2 games. Yes, there are the 8-6 or 6-5 games. In a 7-1 game, do you credit the pitching or the offense? Losing 3-2, most fault the offense. Yet, if it was 5-4, most would then fault the pitching.
In the last 20-30 years, the teams that consistently score 5 or more runs generally make the playoffs. Teams that consistently limit their opponents under 5 runs do not make the playoffs as often. Why? Because of park factors. In Safeco, 4 runs is as effective as 5. In Coors, 5 runs might not be enough. Yes tonight the Tigers got bad pitching. But they also got bad offense.
