Tigers vs. mariners Game Thread September 17

[grandy]

xFIP is king =)

 

[sggatecl]

Don Kelly is the king. Get on your fuckin' knees.

 

[twentythree]

We could still win 99. That would be nifty.

 

[Thumb]

xFIP is king =)

I would agree except I like FIP better than xFIP because park factors are estimates.

 

[tomdalton22]

ERA is not a good stat or a good comparative stat, even over long term. WHIP isn't perfect and has biases, but it is better.

ERA's offensive equivalent is BAVG.

If I say so and so is a .275 Hitter. What does that mean? If I say Player A is a .275 hitter and Player B is a .250 hitter, who is better?

ERA is meaningless unless you add another stat to add context. Same with BAVG.

Randal Simon had a .300 BAVG, so he must be a good hitter.

I will also add, that in 1984 the Average AL ERA was 3.99, but the WHIP was 1.37. In 2012, Average AL ERA was 4.08 and the WHIP was 1.31. There isn't much difference in ERA, but .06 difference in WHIP is huge.

I disagree. For every hole in ERA there is a similar hole in WHIP. Any stat that considers a HR = to a walk is seriously flawed.

 

[kalinecountry]

getting ready....for Wednesday nights game..

Kelly in RF, 2E in left, Perez at 2b,
Looks like a day off for Torii Hunter and Dirks.
Kelly in RF, Tuiasosopo in LF.
Hunter and Infante out tonight.
Perez at second. Kelly in right, batting second.

 

[tomdalton22]

ERA is not a good stat or a good comparative stat, even over long term. WHIP isn't perfect and has biases, but it is better.

ERA's offensive equivalent is BAVG.

If I say so and so is a .275 Hitter. What does that mean? If I say Player A is a .275 hitter and Player B is a .250 hitter, who is better?

ERA is meaningless unless you add another stat to add context. Same with BAVG.

Randal Simon had a .300 BAVG, so he must be a good hitter.

I will also add, that in 1984 the Average AL ERA was 3.99, but the WHIP was 1.37. In 2012, Average AL ERA was 4.08 and the WHIP was 1.31. There isn't much difference in ERA, but .06 difference in WHIP is huge.

this almost proves how flawed WHIP is. In 1984 there were 26 teams and each team averaged 125 HRs that year. In 2011 there were 30 teams and each team averaged 151 HRs. In 1984 each team averaged 512 walks. In 2011 each team averaged 500 walks. More HRs and less walks in 2011 is why the WHIP is lower and ERA is higher. WHIP is a seriously flawed stat when a walk = a HR

 

[Rebbiv]

I disagree. For every hole in ERA there is a similar hole in WHIP. Any stat that considers a HR = to a walk is seriously flawed.

By this description, you can discount OBP. It also considers HR = to a walk.

There is no perfect stat. None. And I never once proclaimed WHIP to be perfect. It is just a stat that is controlled more by the player, than ERA. ERA is not necessarily controlled by the pitcher. Those variables can be poor defense, follow on relievers not doing their jobs, to just plain old "bad luck". Where Walks + Hits are directly due to the pitcher. You could argue that some hits aren't controlled by the pitcher, but that is splitting hairs.

The original proclamation was ERA was a better stat than WHIP. Yet not once has anyone convinced me with FACTS that is the case.

 

[Rebbiv]

this almost proves how flawed WHIP is. In 1984 there were 26 teams and each team averaged 125 HRs that year. In 2011 there were 30 teams and each team averaged 151 HRs. In 1984 each team averaged 512 walks. In 2011 each team averaged 500 walks. More HRs and less walks in 2011 is why the WHIP is lower and ERA is higher. WHIP is a seriously flawed stat when a walk = a HR

2012 does have more HRs (change in ball parks and possible PED effect) and far more strikeouts. There are more power arms today than 30 years ago. Artificial Turf stadiums have gone and grass stadiums have replaced them. You can discount the variance in walks due to the reduction of free passes. But 5,000 more strikeouts? Same number of GIDP?

1984 = 86858 PA 1980 HR 7171 BB (563 IBB) 11571 SO 1774 GIDP .724 OPS

2012 = 86116 PA 2500 HR 6896 BB (421 IBB) 16618 SO 1774 GIDP .731 OPS

Again, all you are doing is to poke at WHIP and not once provide data to back the claim that ERA is a superior stat to WHIP.

 

[tomdalton22]

By this description, you can discount OBP. It also considers HR = to a walk.

There is no perfect stat. None. And I never once proclaimed WHIP to be perfect. It is just a stat that is controlled more by the player, than ERA. ERA is not necessarily controlled by the pitcher. Those variables can be poor defense, follow on relievers not doing their jobs, to just plain old "bad luck". Where Walks + Hits are directly due to the pitcher. You could argue that some hits aren't controlled by the pitcher, but that is splitting hairs.

The original proclamation was ERA was a better stat than WHIP. Yet not once has anyone convinced me with FACTS that is the case.

I think you and I are kind of on the same page. Neither are perfect by themselves but useful tools. I think that ERA is still a good stat and on par with WHIP when both are not used exclusively AND over a long period of time.

I think a better stat may be OPS against for pitchers since it takes into consideration slugging % and OBP. I think OPS is probably the best stat for hitters so why can't the opposite be true for pitchers?

 

[manchild98]

Btw, I see that Iggy made an error. How bad was it?

It would have been a bad error for anyone. It was absolutely jaw dropping that it was Iggy who made that error.

 

[tomdalton22]

2012 does have more HRs (change in ball parks and possible PED effect) and far more strikeouts. There are more power arms today than 30 years ago. Artificial Turf stadiums have gone and grass stadiums have replaced them. You can discount the variance in walks due to the reduction of free passes. But 5,000 more strikeouts? Same number of GIDP?

1984 = 86858 PA 1980 HR 7171 BB (563 IBB) 11571 SO 1774 GIDP .724 OPS

2012 = 86116 PA 2500 HR 6896 BB (421 IBB) 16618 SO 1774 GIDP .731 OPS

Again, all you are doing is to poke at WHIP and not once provide data to back the claim that ERA is a superior stat to WHIP.

I don't think I ever said it was superior. I said they are both good stats. You are the one that says ERA is inferior to WHIP so I am poking holes in WHIP which is just as easy to do as poking holes in ERA.

 

[Rebbiv]

I don't think I ever said it was superior. I said they are both good stats. You are the one that says ERA is inferior to WHIP so I am poking holes in WHIP which is just as easy to do as poking holes in ERA.

Between you and Mitch, someone implied something to the effect that ERA was better.

Posting ERA and/or WHIP allows everyone a base reference, whether you agree with the stats or not. I personally do not think ERA is all that usefully, even coupled with other peripheral stats. It is usually the peripheral stats which tell the story.

It would be like looking only at BAVG. It really doesn't do anything but tell you whether the hitter has good eye/hand coordination.

 

[tomdalton22]

Between you and Mitch, someone implied something to the effect that ERA was better.

Posting ERA and/or WHIP allows everyone a base reference, whether you agree with the stats or not. I personally do not think ERA is all that usefully, even coupled with other peripheral stats. It is usually the peripheral stats which tell the story.

It would be like looking only at BAVG. It really doesn't do anything but tell you whether the hitter has good eye/hand coordination.

do you agree with me about OPS agaist might be better than both ERA and WHIP?

 

[Mitchrapp]

Between you and Mitch, someone implied something to the effect that ERA was better.

Posting ERA and/or WHIP allows everyone a base reference, whether you agree with the stats or not. I personally do not think ERA is all that usefully, even coupled with other peripheral stats. It is usually the peripheral stats which tell the story.

It would be like looking only at BAVG. It really doesn't do anything but tell you whether the hitter has good eye/hand coordination.

Wasn't me, I contest ERA is a lousy stat. But so is WHIP, by itself..

 

[Rebbiv]

do you agree with me about OPS agaist might be better than both ERA and WHIP?

Yes, of course.