Tim Wright

[brewer229]

This is why I am against ever drafting a 1st round QB. More often than not, they bust, and when you can't say "bust" it's still questionable most of the time. Only the absolute greatest at the position ever justify the pick, and there are always the Brady's and Montana's who were drafted in the 3rd to 6th round, or the Favre's in the 2nd round.

Out of the 34 QBs that played enough in 2015 to qualify, 20 were taken in the 1st round. I'm willing to bet that when 58.8% of the players at a position that saw significant time come from the 1st round, it's a good bet you need to pick them in the first round. I'm also willing to bet no other position has that high of a percentage coming from the 1st round.

 

[brewer229]

As for the argument that Aaron Rodger could be included because it was close enough to 10 years ago... okay... we go all the way back to the 2005 NFL draft 12 years ago.

Also if you go back the the past 12 drafts that also brings in the class of 2004, not just 2005. 2004 includes Eli, Rivers, Big Ben.

 

[tbone413]

Out of the 34 QBs that played enough in 2015 to qualify, 20 were taken in the 1st round. I'm willing to bet that when 58.8% of the players at a position that saw significant time come from the 1st round, it's a good bet you need to pick them in the first round. I'm also willing to bet no other position has that high of a percentage coming from the 1st round.

I was basically going to say the same thing as this. Regardless of how many busts there are drafting a QB in the 1st round, If I am in need of a QB I will draft one in the 1st round every time...

I would guess that most positional players picked in the 1st round (especially skilled positions) have an equal 'bust' percentage...as its damn hard to evaluate talent at the NFL level. Its just when you miss with a QB, it hurts a lot more than when you miss with a RB/TE/WR, etc. but the benefits of getting a Franchise QB are enormous.

 

[brewer229]

Also just for more comparisons that don't really mean much. If you look at players drafted 1st overall this century.

11 QBs have been drafted (8 have been pro bowl QBS)
5 non QBs have been drafted (2 have been pro bowlers)

So in percentage wise, QBs have a much higher Pro bowl success wise than non QBs.

 

[inkfreq]

Also if you go back the the past 12 drafts that also brings in the class of 2004, not just 2005. 2004 includes Eli, Rivers, Big Ben.

Only if you count to 10 starting at zero.

2005-2016 is 12 years. Of course it can be argued this draft hasn't happened yet, so thats also fair.

 

[tomdalton22]

Only if you count to 10 starting at zero.

2005-2016 is 12 years. Of course it can be argued this draft hasn't happened yet, so thats also fair.

you start at 2015 and count back 12 drafts...it takes you to 2004

 

[brewer229]

you start at 2015 and count back 12 drafts...it takes you to 2004

Yea that's what I did, went on the past 12 drafts. Since this draft didn't happen yet, and it's "too soon" to count the past 2 drafts, really Ink is only talking about the 2005-2013 draft, so really 9 drafts.

None of it really matters. If we continue to limit Stafford's responsibilities like we did in the 2nd half of the 2015 season, I think he will have a good year. We really couldn't have asked for an easier schedule than what it appears on paper. If he goes back trying to be a guy that thinks he can win on his arm strength and gunslinging we will suck again.

 

[inkfreq]

1. 2006
2. 2007
3. 2008
4. 2009
5. 2010
6. 2011
7. 2012
8. 2013
9. 2014
10. 2015

I was including this year (not sure why, it just made sense at the time) and 2005 in my 12 year statement.

Yes, going back 12 actual drafts you would also include Eli, Big Ben, and Rivers as well as J.P. Losman.. which would still put Stafford at roughly the same upper percentile as we started with in the original 10 year projection.



And yes I agree with the fact that 58% of the starting QBs in the league last season were first rounders (did not personally fact check that, but I am sure you're correct) but how many of those guys were actually quality starters?

Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles .. all 1st round starters for last season that I felt were average or below average starters.

I would hope the measuring stick for a 1st round pick is not "average".

Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees are all examples of QBs that last season were above average and taken after the first round.

 

[tomdalton22]

1. 2006
2. 2007
3. 2008
4. 2009
5. 2010
6. 2011
7. 2012
8. 2013
9. 2014
10. 2015

I was including this year (not sure why, it just made sense at the time) and 2005 in my 12 year statement.

Yes, going back 12 actual drafts you would also include Eli, Big Ben, and Rivers as well as J.P. Losman.. which would still put Stafford at roughly the same upper percentile as we started with in the original 10 year projection.



And yes I agree with the fact that 58% of the starting QBs in the league last season were first rounders (did not personally fact check that, but I am sure you're correct) but how many of those guys were actually quality starters?

Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles .. all 1st round starters for last season that I felt were average or below average starters.

I would hope the measuring stick for a 1st round pick is not "average".

Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees are all examples of QBs that last season were above average and taken after the first round.

If the measuring stick for first round QB's is "average" Stafford is right there.

 

[brewer229]

1. 2006
2. 2007
3. 2008
4. 2009
5. 2010
6. 2011
7. 2012
8. 2013
9. 2014
10. 2015

I was including this year (not sure why, it just made sense at the time) and 2005 in my 12 year statement.

Yes, going back 12 actual drafts you would also include Eli, Big Ben, and Rivers as well as J.P. Losman.. which would still put Stafford at roughly the same upper percentile as we started with in the original 10 year projection.



And yes I agree with the fact that 58% of the starting QBs in the league last season were first rounders (did not personally fact check that, but I am sure you're correct) but how many of those guys were actually quality starters?

Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles .. all 1st round starters for last season that I felt were average or below average starters.

I would hope the measuring stick for a 1st round pick is not "average".

Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees are all examples of QBs that last season were above average and taken after the first round.

I'm not sure how you could consider Eli average or below, but Fitzpatrick above average.

The guys like Alex Smith, does what he does well. He was an efficient QB for his team.
While Carr was pretty good for a 2nd year guy, I thought Bortles was as good as he was.
Romo played 1/4 of the Season, hard to call him a success last year, he simply didn't play. The few he did he really only had 1 good game. Now over prior years I would agree he was very good, but this discussion is about 2015.

Obviously there will always be players drafted later that do well, that's what makes the game great. However with QB I'll take my chances on a 1st rounder over any other round for a QB.

 

[inkfreq]

I'm not sure how you could consider Eli average or below, but Fitzpatrick above average.

The guys like Alex Smith, does what he does well. He was an efficient QB for his team.
While Carr was pretty good for a 2nd year guy, I thought Bortles was as good as he was.
Romo played 1/4 of the Season, hard to call him a success last year, he simply didn't play. The few he did he really only had 1 good game. Now over prior years I would agree he was very good, but this discussion is about 2015.

Obviously there will always be players drafted later that do well, that's what makes the game great. However with QB I'll take my chances on a 1st rounder over any other round for a QB.

It's totally unfair of me to call Elisha Manning average or below average. I dislike Peyton's little sister almost as bad as I dislike Droptimus Prime... so I am negatively biased.

 

[brewer229]

It's totally unfair of me to call Elisha Manning average or below average. I dislike Peyton's little sister almost as bad as I dislike Droptimus Prime... so I am negatively biased.

That I can accept and understand.