Top 5 Mayhew Draft Picks

[tomdalton22]

Should have won division. Bogus block in the back and had to play at Pats unlike Green Bay. 11-5 was HOF caliber.

We beat Dallas and matched up well with Seattle. We could have easily won Super Bowl.

Super Bowl caliber in 2014 and 2015. Lions are loaded with talent.

In your own little fantasy land maybe...but in the real world they were just another WC team that lost in the first round. That is a long way from "easily winning a Super Bowl"

 

[LKP]

In your own little fantasy land maybe...but in the real world they were just another WC team that lost in the first round. That is a long way from "easily winning a Super Bowl"

They weren't just a WC team. They are a WC team that really won their playoff game. 11-5 was almost HOF in a tough NFC. Fact. Lions had a ton of injuries. Fact.

Lions are Super Bowl caliber.

We have an explosive offense that can be top 10 easily and a great defense again with a good Dline and great back 7 with great coaching.

 

[brewer229]

Super Bowl caliber that can't beat a bad Arizona team. Super Bowl caliber team that scores 6 points in the final 3 quarters of their playoff game.

You must be thinking the Lions are in the NCAA, they would dominate there....NFL, not so much.

 

[jdeb]

Unknown that Suh would be so arrogant wanting 19 per. Donald could be a one year wonder too.

Ebron will be a stud in year 2.

Waddle/Hilliard both got hurt. Unknown double injury.

tdalton had it right, luxury pick. I would rather have Donald. Doesn't look like Ebron is very good but either did Slay in his first year. Maybe the Lions can switch to a run & shoot, Ebron would fit in well with that scheme. The scheme change really helped Slay.

 

[schles192]

It says a lot when Ridick makes the top 5. Pathetic!

Not sure how Ridick was chosen but Warford was left off, I guess the author wanted to make a point so he skewed a shitty list to be even shittier.

 

[schles192]

Interesting study.

Digging further, Calvin Johnson (Millen pick) accounts for a third of the Lions' total AV of retained draft picks. Eliminate him and the total AV drops to 142, which averages out to 5.68...good for 31st, only ahead of Oakland.

Thats not true, the AV they used was only from 2009 - 2014, Calvin was drafted in 07 so he wasn't part of the 213 AV, so your backing out a number that wasn't included.

Using the AV the top 5 Mayhew picks are:
Stafford 54
Levy 43
Pettigrew 21
Reiff 18
Ansah 15

On a side note: Nate Freese has a negative 1 AV.

 

[grandy]

Well that was my mistake, I'll just have to settle for the Lions being middle of the pack when it comes to drafting.

 

[grandy]

Now that I've done more than just skim the article, I'd like to see what else could be done. I'm simply not satisfied with career AV, I feel that there should be some sort of weighted system based on draft position...a 6th rounder with say a 40 career AV is much more impressive to me than a top 5 pick with a 50 career AV.

Just look at the Lions 2009 draft, Levy was an impressive pick whereas Stafford was an obvious selection at #1.

I was thinking about doing something along the lines of an average AV for all draft picks by each round, each year, and comparing picks to those averages. Just for an example, using made up numbers.

Player A taken 4th overall in 2009, 50 AV
Player B taken mid 3rd round in 2009, 40 AV

Average AV for 2009 1st round, 20 AV
Average AV for 2009 3rd round, 8 AV

Player A adjusted, 30 AV
Player B adjusted, 32 AV

 

[cheeno]

Now that I've done more than just skim the article, I'd like to see what else could be done. I'm simply not satisfied with career AV, I feel that there should be some sort of weighted system based on draft position...a 6th rounder with say a 40 career AV is much more impressive to me than a top 5 pick with a 50 career AV.

Just look at the Lions 2009 draft, Levy was an impressive pick whereas Stafford was an obvious selection at #1.

I was thinking about doing something along the lines of an average AV for all draft picks by each round, each year, and comparing picks to those averages. Just for an example, using made up numbers.

Player A taken 4th overall in 2009, 50 AV
Player B taken mid 3rd round in 2009, 40 AV

Average AV for 2009 1st round, 20 AV
Average AV for 2009 3rd round, 8 AV

Player A adjusted, 30 AV
Player B adjusted, 32 AV

Weigh them by their actual draft number if you believe Tom Brady is worth 200 time Stafford.

 

[grandy]

I decided to look at just the 2009 draft for now

Average Career AV by Round (2009)
1 - 29.22
2 - 21.06
3 - 14.67
4 - 9.28
5 - 4.35
6 - 4.69
7 - 6.77

Lions 2009 Picks, Career AV Compared to Average (Value)
Levy (3): +28.33
Stafford (1): +24.78
Delmas (2): +11.33
Hill (4): +10.72
Brown (6): -2.69
Follett (7): -4.77
Gronkowski (7): -5.77
Murtha (7): -6.77*
Pettigrew (1): -8.22
Williams (3): -14.67*

Lions 2009 Picks, Career AV Compared to Average (Percentage)
Levy (3): +193%
Hill (4): +116%
Stafford (1): +85%
Delmas (2): +77%
Pettigrew (1): -28%
Brown (6): -57%
Follett (7): -70%
Gronkowski (7): -85%
Murtha (7): -100%*
Williams (3): -100%*

*- 0 Career AV

 

[grandy]

I was curious about the draft as a whole, here are a few rankings

Top 10 Picks of 2009, Compared to Average AV (by round)
1. Louis Vasquez, G (3): +38.33
2. LeSean McCoy, RB (2): +33.94
3. Clay Matthews, LB (1): +31.78
4. T.J. Lang, T (4): +31.72
5. Mike Wallace, WR (3): +29.33
6. DeAndre Levy, LB (3): +28.33
7. Glover Quin, DB (4): +26.72
8. Sebastian Vollmer, T (2): +24.94
9. Matthew Stafford, QB (1): +24.78
10. James Laurinaitis, LB (2): +23.94

Top 10 Picks of 2009, Compared to Average AV (by round), Percentage
1. Jason McCourty, DB (6): +476%
2. Matt Slauson, G (6): +433%
3. Chris Clemons, DB (5): +360%
4. Julian Edelman, WR (7): +343%
5. T. J. Lang, T (4): +342%
6. Johnny Knox, WR (5): +337%
7. Captain Munnerlyn, DB (7): +299%
8. Jasper Brinkley, LB (5): +291%
9. Glover Quin, DB (4): +288%
10. Garrett Reynolds, T (5): +268%

Bottom 10 Picks of 2009, Compared to Average AV (by round)
1. Aaron Maybin, DE (1): -24.22
2. Larry English, LB (1): -22.22
t3. Cody Brown, LB (2): -21.06
t3. Richard Quinn, TE (2): -21.06
t5. Pat White, QB (2): -20.06
t5. David Veikune, LB (2): -20.06
7. Jason Smith, T (1): -19.22
8. Clint Sintim, LB (2): -19.06
t9. Brian Robiskie, WR (2): -18.06
t9. Darcel McBath, CB (2): -18.06

 

[grandy]

I used the same formula for drafts from 2009-2014, here are the Lions specific rankings

Top 10 Career AV
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT (1): 60
2. Matthew Stafford, QB (1): 54
3. DeAndre Levy, LB (3): 43
4. Louis Delmas, DB (2): 26
5. Brandon Pettigrew, TE (1): 21
6. Sammie Lee Hill, DT (4): 20
7. Riley Reiff, T (1): 18
8. Nick Fairley, DT (1): 16
9. Ezekiel Ansah, DE (1): 15
10. Larry Warford, OL (3): 14

Top 10 Compared to Round Average AV, Value
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT (1): +30.69
2. DeAndre Levy, LB (3): +28.33
3. Matthew Stafford, QB (1): +24.78
4. Sammie Lee Hill, DT (4): +10.72
5. Willie Young, DE (7): +8.75
6. Larry Warford, OL (3): +7.37
7. Tahir Whitehead, LB (5): +6.14
8. Louis Delmas, DB (2): +4.94
9. Ezekiel Ansah, DE (1): +4.09
10. Sam Martin, P (5): +2.43

Top 10 Compared to Round Average AV, Percentage
1. Willie Young, DE (7): +206%
2. DeAndre Levy, LB (3): +193%
3. Tahir Whitehead, LB (5): +159%
4. Sammie Lee Hill, DT (4): +116%
5. Larry Warford, OL (3): +111%
6. Ndamukong Suh, DT (1): +105%
7. Matthew Stafford, QB (1): +85%
8. Sam Martin, P (5): +68%
9. Theo Riddick, RB (6): +48%
t10. Devin Taylor, DE (4): +38%
t10. Ezekiel Ansah, DE (1): +38%

^ Any problems with the AV stat aside, this is probably the best list to represent smartest picks in terms of value

Bottom 10 Compared to Round Average AV, Value
1. Jahvid Best, RB (1): -16.31
2. Derrick Williams, WR (3): -14.67
3. Nick Fairley, DT (1): -10.50
4. Mikel Leshoure, RB (2): -10.41
5. Ryan Broyles, WR (2): -9.13
6. Brandon Pettigrew, TE (1): -8.22
7. Titus Young, WR (2): -7.41
8. Lydon Murtha, T (7): -6.77
9. Bill Bentley, DB (3): -6.47
10. Ronnell Lewis, LB (4): -5.88

 

[tonyballs]

It says a lot when Ridick makes the top 5. Pathetic!

Why is it pathetic when all you morons ever talk about is hitting on LATE draft picks? Make up your fkn mind

 

[tonyballs]

Really, to be fair, all teams struggle to maintain all their draft picks. The system is designed that way. However, the Lions really choke on it when it counts the most. Just think if they passed on Ebron last year and went with Aaron Donald. I predicted the Lions would take him way before the draft. Javad Best was mentioned and everyone knew except the Lions he was a serious reach and injury risk.

They will reach again this year. Watch them take Melvin Gordon which would be a serious mistake like last year taking Ebron. They will pass up the likes of a Jalen Collins, Jordan Phillips, or a Eddie Goldman. Wait and see. All the high end OT's will be gone by the time they pick.

You weren`t getting Donald either, buddy. Mayhew`s pick was Odell Beckham Jr until he got coaxed into Ebron. So get it out of your head....DONALD WAS NEVER GOING TO BE A LION. PERIOD.

 

[brewer229]

Why is it pathetic when all you morons ever talk about is hitting on LATE draft picks? Make up your fkn mind

I think it has more to do with the fact that a RB with 29 carries, for 76 yards and a long of 9 is one of your best draft picks it leaves a little to be desired.

He's good for a 6th rounder, but one of the best draft pulls?

 

[tomdalton22]

Why is it pathetic when all you morons ever talk about is hitting on LATE draft picks? Make up your fkn mind

"hitting on Ridick" is a stretch. Two years in the league and he has 29 carries for 76 yards. My point was THAT is their 5th best "hit"!

 

[tonyballs]

I think it has more to do with the fact that a RB with 29 carries, for 76 yards and a long of 9 is one of your best draft picks it leaves a little to be desired.

He's good for a 6th rounder, but one of the best draft pulls?

I don`t even care about the list, bro. All I hear on this board is how Mayhew can`t draft good players late. Riddick is a solid serviceable back who has some nice upside.

 

[tonyballs]

"hitting on Ridick" is a stretch. Two years in the league and he has 29 carries for 76 yards. My point was THAT is their 5th best "hit"!

Who cares about his carries? He`s a situational RB who is excellent at catching the ball and moving the chains. He was a great pick where he went in the draft. Recognize it, but of course you can`t...

 

[tomdalton22]

Who cares about his carries? He`s a situational RB who is excellent at catching the ball and moving the chains. He was a great pick where he went in the draft. Recognize it, but of course you can`t...

yes..a fine 6th round draft pick. But in this situation he is listed as the 5th best pick Mayhew has made. That is what is pathetic...not Ridick.

 

[brewer229]

Who cares about his carries? He`s a situational RB who is excellent at catching the ball and moving the chains. He was a great pick where he went in the draft. Recognize it, but of course you can`t...

I don't think anyone is saying it was a bad pick. Just the guy was rated as one of our best picks. As you said, he is a situational guy, good pick, but you don't want situational guys to be one of your best. Until he proves hes more than a small role player hard to call him one of the franchises best picks.

However the writer of the blog seems a little clueless, so I'm not putting to much stock in him.


Side note...is situational not a word? My browser underlines it like it is either not a word or spelled wrong. I've used that word a plethora of times, now I'm starting to question it.