Ukraine Riots

[Michchamp]

That's the Olympics. Have they ever done it any other way?

Someone on the Dianne Rehm Show just stated that Yanukovych and his family have transferred $12-13B in Ukrainian assets to their own personal holdings.

One of the pro-Yanukovych voices said that people on the pro-Russia side don't want to get closer to the EU because they would always be 2nd or 3rd class passengers on the EU train. And to support that argument, he said "Just look at how the Americans treat their allies."

yeah. blaming the U.S. is pretty pervasive among the Ukrainian gov't.

to their credit, I've seen some comments from the protestors to the effect of "whatever. We know the U.S. sucks, but you suck more." they seem to get it, and they know they're fighting for themselves, and that closer ties with the EU or US will NOT be some panacea. Of course, they'd rather have the standard of living the west enjoys, but the smart ones harbor no illusions that they're going to get more back from the US/EU than they give. They seem to really just want Yanukovich out, and rightfully so.

He's gone out of his way to make himself hated while robbing the people... he forgot to provide the bread and circuses.!

 

[Michchamp]

because every national economy is different, and studies of the benefits/costs of EU membership are often politicized, no one knows exactly what closer ties or outright EU membership would do. It's difficult to imagine it hurting the average Ukrainian though.

Labor is cheap in Ukraine... significantly cheaper than the rest of Eastern Europe already. it's not unusual for 20-something yuppies to have full-time housekeepers there, whereas that's pretty exceptional in more developed places. So presumably, with better laws in place to protect investments and more checks on corruption, some European production would shift there to take advantage of it.

it will be weird to see how the average Ukrainian reacts to closer ties with the west... they are so accustomed to pervasive corruption that they might not understand how civil services, contracts, etc. can be conducted without having to pay bribes. Or that yes, in some places people often obey the laws, because they understand everyone is better off if they do.

a transition would be easier on the western part of the country, which is more European, less Russian. There is talk of actually breaking up Ukraine... with the bulk of the western & central parts of the country staying independent, and the East & Crimea becoming part of Russia (either through annexation or association with the Russian customs union).

Fun fact: according to legend, Crimea was transferred to the administration of the Ukrainian SSR by a drunken Nikita Kruschev in 1954.

This later caused a lot of tensions with Russia, since after the breakup of the Soviet Union, Crimea remained a part of Ukraine, but the Russians retained their naval base there, and ties the province. A lot of the thugs beating protestors around Ukraine come from the Russian-Crimean population.

Seems to me... ceding Crimea to Russia is a small price to pay for closer ties with the West. it's not like Ukraine really needs a navy.

 

[Gulo Blue]

I wonder if splitting into 2 states is a possibility. The West could improve ties to the EU and all pipelines would still pass through Russian controlled territory.


"The Western region of Lviv has reportedly declared independence from Ukraine in a potential breakthrough of the anti-government protests in the country."
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-facing-civil-war-lviv-declares-independence-yanukovich-rule-1437092

edit: Posted just after you addressed exactly this possibility.

 

[Gulo Blue]

I've seen a couple posts about it not being the East/West thing it's being portrayed as. It's the people vs a corrupt government and they know they won't get help from the US or EU. Not news stories, but individual posts.

 

[Gulo Blue]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85WBb9xA9AI

 

[Gulo Blue]

Meanwhile, there are 4 protesters dead in Thailand, 5 in Venezuela.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFS6cP9auDc#t=392

 

[Michchamp]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85WBb9xA9AI

HOLY SHIT!

They hit that thing with like a dozen molotovs in 5 seconds! These guys are like elite shock troops.

I wish the Occupy Wall Street guys had that sort of firepower. we would've definitely had banking reform by now...

 

[Michchamp]

Meanwhile, there are 4 protesters dead in Thailand, 5 in Venezuela.

those are two different countries from Ukraine.

 

[Michchamp]

truce talks fall apart. again. safe to assume that will keep happening.

Yanukovich is a moron... by charging the protestors with such draconian penalties, he's given them no incentive to back down. If you're already facing 12 years in prison just for being on the site of a protest, you might as well go for broke.

And he's shown himself to be completely untrustworthy, so there's no point in even negotiating with him or his thug political party.

 

[byco42]

HOLY SHIT!

They hit that thing with like a dozen molotovs in 5 seconds! These guys are like elite shock troops.

I wish the Occupy Wall Street guys had that sort of firepower. we would've definitely had banking reform by now...

If only you had been there to lead them.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Protesters are claiming 100 are dead.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/20/world/europe/ukraine-protests/

 

[Gulo Blue]

HOLY SHIT!

They hit that thing with like a dozen molotovs in 5 seconds! These guys are like elite shock troops.

I wish the Occupy Wall Street guys had that sort of firepower. we would've definitely had banking reform by now...

You also see fireworks. They are heavily outgunned. Government has reportedly deployed snipers.

 

[Michchamp]

You also see fireworks. They are heavily outgunned. Government has reportedly deployed snipers.

I read reports that the protestors ID's snipers (they have smartphone cameras, binoculars, etc), methodically surrounded the buildings snipers were in, killed them, and seized their rifles. they're not getting pushed around very easily.

supposedly the government gave the order to fire at will with live ammunition. Not sure if that is true, or if true, they will go through with it. It might've just been one official's word. I remember dumb politicians saying crap like that during Hurricane Katrina.

Supposedly the protestors have seized a lot of arms as well, and as you saw in the clip, they have become more organized over the last couple months. And on top of that, you figure some significant part of the army and navy will side with the people. this is going to be a full blown civil war.

Ha. While the olympics are going on...

guess we won't be going there again this summer.

 

[Michchamp]

the wife is super pissed the U.S. hasn't just invaded.

I'm like "well... they're still trying to figure out their angle to this. They know Ukraine is in Russia's "Sphere of Influence" and as in Georgia, Putin has shown a willingness to invade... I don't see us getting into a war with a nuclear power over this."

But I'm sure we'll do something eventually... given the antagonism between Russia and the US, this is an opportunity to go after their interests in some way, shape or form. I'm guessing if we weren't so entrenched in our "War On Terror" we'd be in a better position to respond.

 

[Gulo Blue]

the wife is super pissed the U.S. hasn't just invaded.

I'm like "well... they're still trying to figure out their angle to this. They know Ukraine is in Russia's "Sphere of Influence" and as in Georgia, Putin has shown a willingness to invade... I don't see us getting into a war with a nuclear power over this."

But I'm sure we'll do something eventually... given the antagonism between Russia and the US, this is an opportunity to go after their interests in some way, shape or form. I'm guessing if we weren't so entrenched in our "War On Terror" we'd be in a better position to respond.

Obama is starting to talk about it. I think the EU should be involved before the US.

 

[Gulo Blue]

67 police captured/held hostage.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/20/us-ukraine-police-hostage-idUSBREA1J1A720140220

What do we call this? Would it be accurate to call this a civil war or a coup attempt?

 

[Michchamp]

Obama is starting to talk about it. I think the EU should be involved before the US.

PROBABLY... especially since this whole thing started over EU membership. They're not about to get tough with Russia over it though. Or they're waiting for NATO to get involved.

allegedly the Russians released audio of the US Ambassador to Ukraine talking to someone at the State Dept, who dropped an F bomb about the European's lack of action over it. I think the Russians intended it to provoke discord between the EU and US, but everyone just kinda rolled their eyes.

 

[Michchamp]

67 police captured/held hostage.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/20/us-ukraine-police-hostage-idUSBREA1J1A720140220

What do we call this? Would it be accurate to call this a civil war or a coup attempt?

as of now, it's a civil war... or could turn into a civil war. A coup would be a specific party/or the military unilaterally seizing power and announcing that Yanukovich is toast.

 

[Gulo Blue]

PROBABLY... especially since this whole thing started over EU membership. They're not about to get tough with Russia over it though. Or they're waiting for NATO to get involved.

allegedly the Russians released audio of the US Ambassador to Ukraine talking to someone at the State Dept, who dropped an F bomb about the European's lack of action over it. I think the Russians intended it to provoke discord between the EU and US, but everyone just kinda rolled their eyes.

Don't forget the issue of controlling as much of this as possible.

 

[Thumb]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...bout-ukraine-you-were-too-embarrassed-to-ask/