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UM vs MSU stats

Michchamp

Michchamp

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 4, 2011
Messages
34,254
Total defense:
UM 1st .....203 ypg
MSU 5th....248 ypg

Rush d:
UM 1st .....69 ypg
MSU 16th..96 ypg

PED:
UM 2nd
MSU 5th

turnover margin:
UM +0 ... t63rd
MSU -1 ...t108th

offensively...
total offense:
UM 73rd .....407 ypg
MSU 52nd....429 ypg

PEO:
UM 69th
MSU 66th

Rush O:
UM 50th .....184 ypg
MSU 48th ...187 ypg

so far, other than turnovers, and I guess rush D, we're remarkably similar. only difference is we've played a tougher SOS.

penalties per game:
UM 78th 7/game
MSU 65th 6.25/game
yuck.

sacks:
UM 1st 4.5/game
MSU 52nd 2.25/game

TFL:
UM 7th .... 8.5/game
MSU 43rd ..6.8/game

I say play vanilla on offense, play for field position, and wreck them in the backfield until they fall apart. can't let up in the 2nd half, like we did the last couple years.
 
FWIW, Sagarin rankings:

UM 13th, SOS 41st
MSU 27th, SOS 28th

they're not as bad (right now at least) as people think they are.
 
MSU is not a bad team at all. I think that this is the year that M vanquishes the past 10 years with a big win. A hunch.
 
byco42 said:
MSU is not a bad team at all. I think that this is the year that M vanquishes the past 10 years with a big win. A hunch.
Click to expand...

our offense would need to play uncharacteristically well.

I'd love to see that, of course!

I'd love to see us call some long, badass, scripted scoring drives, that eat clock and end in well-executed short pass TDs or runs. The kind of drive that just demoralizes the entire opposite sideline and takes their fans out of it.

follow up one of those in the 3rd Q with a State turnover, and another long scoring drive, and it'll be over.
 
michchamp said:
Total defense:
UM 1st .....203 ypg
MSU 5th....248 ypg

Rush d:
UM 1st .....69 ypg
MSU 16th..96 ypg

PED:
UM 2nd
MSU 5th

turnover margin:
UM +0 ... t63rd
MSU -1 ...t108th

offensively...
total offense:
UM 73rd .....407 ypg
MSU 52nd....429 ypg

PEO:
UM 69th
MSU 66th

Rush O:
UM 50th .....184 ypg
MSU 48th ...187 ypg

so far, other than turnovers, and I guess rush D, we're remarkably similar. only difference is we've played a tougher SOS.

penalties per game:
UM 78th 7/game
MSU 65th 6.25/game
yuck.

sacks:
UM 1st 4.5/game
MSU 52nd 2.25/game

TFL:
UM 7th .... 8.5/game
MSU 43rd ..6.8/game

I say play vanilla on offense, play for field position, and wreck them in the backfield until they fall apart. can't let up in the 2nd half, like we did the last couple years.
Click to expand...

i'm really surprised by the penalty number - we have been really undisciplined in our last 2 games. I would have thought the nd game alone would put us somewhere in the high 80s. We've had 9 penalties in each of our last 2 not counting at least 2 declined in each - every nd scoring drive other than the first was extended by a stupid penalty. That stat is diluted by the BG and WMU games against inferior opponents. I'll be shocked if we don't have at least 3 more penalties than uofm, especially on the road.
 
I don't know what this means or where they got this, but I saw this over at Mgoblog

Overall S+P+ ranks our offense 39th and Sparty 76th (!!)
 
I think Florida and dame are about equal and otherwise the respective opposition is about on par with one another.

Despite what Dantoni said/meant by saying the game isn't really a Road Game, it is. It's the first game away from EL and M is no longer complacent/condescending/little brother'ish about things.

I'd expect a game like we've seen this year; M defense disrupting and relatively shutting down state (but for the one inevitable trick play). Like DR said, last year wasn't as close as the final score showed, much like many of M's games this year. And Pollack and McDouche both picked state to keep it close/upset.
 
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I looked at some numbers for Don Brown the other day. I went back 5 years which is his 2 years here and his 3 years at BC. His defenses have only given up 24 pts or more 11 times in 5 years. Most of those were at BC. Which is most impressive because the offenses for those BC teams were some of the worst in the country.

Over the same 5 years which includes 3 of the best years in MSU history they gave up 24 or more points 23 times. I expect the game to be low scoring. For MSU to have a chance I think they need to keep it in the teens and they have to hope we keep shooting ourselves in the foot. Which I will admit we have been our own worst enemy this season with turnovers, sacks and penalties.
 
I like the O'Korn wrinkle and think the O will install some new plays, based on his strengths. I like the BYE week and the fact that the game is in A2. I think the M Defense is far better than any State has seen so far and while they will have a play or two, I think the D will cause turnovers and set up short fields for the O.

Also ...DJP

The difference between this era and the past 10yrs is that we are now taking the Cass Tech, King and other Detroit powerhouse recruits. They were going to EL when we had RR and for most of Hoke.

These kids get the rivalry ...slot ninjas from middle Florida, not so much maybe.
 
deathroh said:
Why would you? The last time I remember you touting 538's odds.....things didn't turn out so well.
Click to expand...

I ain't superstitious like that. But I have referenced those odds vs. Vegas lines to try to explain to people that the stats guys weren't all wrong like the cable news people claimed. The election played out like a 1-touchdown underdog pulling the upset. It happens sometimes. It's not a failure of the oddsmakers. It's a failure of the reporters' understanding of odds to act like 70% is a sure thing.
 
Gulo Blue said:
I ain't superstitious like that. But I have referenced those odds vs. Vegas lines to try to explain to people that the stats guys weren't all wrong like the cable news people claimed. The election played out like a 1-touchdown underdog pulling the upset. It happens sometimes. It's not a failure of the oddsmakers. It's a failure of the reporters' understanding of odds to act like 70% is a sure thing.
Click to expand...

I guess it's all a matter of degrees, but ehhh, they were still wrong.

I just hope that Michigan wins this game by at least 30 electoral college votes.
 
deathroh said:
I guess it's all a matter of degrees, but ehhh, they were still wrong.

I just hope that Michigan wins this game by at least 30 electoral college votes.
Click to expand...

I mean, if you had zero clue who would win, you'd say one candidates odds were 50%. They were closer to no clue than to certainty.
 
deathroh said:
I guess it's all a matter of degrees, but ehhh, they were still wrong.

I just hope that Michigan wins this game by at least 30 electoral college votes.
Click to expand...


Any Russian Twitter farms going to be at work Saturday, trying to sway the officials...?
 
TheVictors said:
Any Russian Twitter farms going to be at work Saturday, trying to sway the officials...?
Click to expand...

Nah, I think this is a job for James Comey. Rumors of crimes that Harbaugh supposedly committed in Rome will leak, and Comey will work with his old friends in the justice department to get him extradited.
 
according to some, the Russians are too busy stirring up the NFL kneeling controversy to divide Americans to pay attention to college football.
 
michchamp said:
Ooof...

you know, you should read Current Affairs magazine, like me. I'm also a subscriber. If you did, you wouldn't waste your time on sites like 538.

lest you doubt their predictive powers, read this article and note the date.
Click to expand...

I'm unconvinced. Even the 99% primary thing. One out of 100 times, you get those wrong. I suspect 538 has 100's of similar odds that went the way you'd expect.

I'd like to see someone lump all his stats by percentages and then compare to what actually happened. What % of all the times he said something had a 81% chance (for example) did it go that way.

Did a quick search and didn't find what I wanted, but I did find this: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f
 
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