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Michchamp
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When - Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023 @ 7:30 PM Eastern in East Lansing, Michigan on NBC.
Line: UM -24
o/u: 47.5
Sagarin predictor: UM by 21
A bit of history...
Overall series: 72-38-5
For the Trophy: 39-29-2
Harbaugh vs. MSU: 4-4
Gee... I don't know what else really needs to be said about this one. MSU is just an absolute mess. It's been in an absolute nosedive from 2021's 11-2. But if last year's 5-7 MSU team was bad-but-serviceable, winning some games they shouldn't have with lingering talent and coaching left over from the Dantonio Era, including being a missed FG against Indiana away from 6-6 and a Bowl Game, this appears to be the year the wheels finally fell off the program.
Now, instead of winning games they were predicted to lose, and keeping blowouts closer than expected, they're rolling over and dying, finding new ways to lose each week. They've now lost 4 straight, starting with a 41-7 loss to UWashington that was somehow worse than the score indicated, before getting clobbered by Maryland & blowing 2nd half leads to Iowa and Rutgers. MSU is now 2-4 and STILL has not played the 3 best teams in the East.
It is amusing Dantonio's again on the sidelines for all this.
They brought him back to watch the program he built burn.
Stats watch!
let's start with the one (1) thing MSU does better than us...
3rd down defense: 16th vs. 3rd
MSU has a good third down defense for some reason. But that really doesn't matter as much because ...
4th down defense: 8th vs. 115th ... MSU's opponents are successful on 4th down 67% of the time, and of course moving the ball easily on 1st and 2nd downs.
They have played a tougher schedule than us (Sagarin rankings: 78th vs 27th) mainly b/c of the Iowa and Washington games.
Other stats
Penalties/game: ....1st 116th
Penalty yds/game: 1st 113th
Turnover margin:...11th 125th
Scoring defense:.....1st 59th
Rush D:................10th 32nd
Pass Eff D:.............5th 70th
All things considered, their defense, including their pass defense, isn't as bad as it's been. Their offense on the other hand, is more of a mess this year. They really shouldn't have run off Thorne and Coleman. But if that was clear at the time to everyone who wasn't an MSU fan, it's even more clear in retrospect. >
Nice work, Mel!
Rush offense:..40th 109th
Passing Eff.:.....3rd 105th
Their passing numbers have been sandbagged by Noah Kim's atrocious stats; however, Houser might be an improvement, although he's only really played one game. We'll just have to see!
JJ is now #2 in the nation in passing efficiency!!
He's behind LSU's Jayden Daniels by a narrow margin, but ahead of Penix, Caleb Williams and Bo Nix (in that order).
"WE'RE IN THE ASS KICKING BUSINESS... AND BUSINESS IS BOOMING"
Upset watch?
This year, I haven't seen any Spartans mention past notable upsets in this series, where unranked and unheralded MSU teams beat good Michigan teams. They are just THAT beaten down as a fanbase. I suppose if JJ somehow gets knocked out of the game early, & Houser turns out to be the second coming of... uh... Kirk Cousins, maybe it could be close. But even then, Houser is just one guy out of 11 and MSU's offense is god-awful. Tough to see them moving the ball on our defense, no matter how many bad spots they're put in.
I really just hope for an easy win with everyone leaving East Lansing healthy.
So go ahead and make your picks below, and post some analysis if you so choose, but as always, leave the woofing and the barking for other threads!
Line: UM -24
o/u: 47.5
Sagarin predictor: UM by 21
A bit of history...
Overall series: 72-38-5
For the Trophy: 39-29-2
Harbaugh vs. MSU: 4-4
Current MSU status:
Gee... I don't know what else really needs to be said about this one. MSU is just an absolute mess. It's been in an absolute nosedive from 2021's 11-2. But if last year's 5-7 MSU team was bad-but-serviceable, winning some games they shouldn't have with lingering talent and coaching left over from the Dantonio Era, including being a missed FG against Indiana away from 6-6 and a Bowl Game, this appears to be the year the wheels finally fell off the program.
Now, instead of winning games they were predicted to lose, and keeping blowouts closer than expected, they're rolling over and dying, finding new ways to lose each week. They've now lost 4 straight, starting with a 41-7 loss to UWashington that was somehow worse than the score indicated, before getting clobbered by Maryland & blowing 2nd half leads to Iowa and Rutgers. MSU is now 2-4 and STILL has not played the 3 best teams in the East.
It is amusing Dantonio's again on the sidelines for all this.
They brought him back to watch the program he built burn.
Stats watch!
let's start with the one (1) thing MSU does better than us...
3rd down defense: 16th vs. 3rd
MSU has a good third down defense for some reason. But that really doesn't matter as much because ...
4th down defense: 8th vs. 115th ... MSU's opponents are successful on 4th down 67% of the time, and of course moving the ball easily on 1st and 2nd downs.
They have played a tougher schedule than us (Sagarin rankings: 78th vs 27th) mainly b/c of the Iowa and Washington games.
Other stats
Penalties/game: ....1st 116th
Penalty yds/game: 1st 113th
Turnover margin:...11th 125th
Scoring defense:.....1st 59th
Rush D:................10th 32nd
Pass Eff D:.............5th 70th
All things considered, their defense, including their pass defense, isn't as bad as it's been. Their offense on the other hand, is more of a mess this year. They really shouldn't have run off Thorne and Coleman. But if that was clear at the time to everyone who wasn't an MSU fan, it's even more clear in retrospect. >
Nice work, Mel!Rush offense:..40th 109th
Passing Eff.:.....3rd 105th
Their passing numbers have been sandbagged by Noah Kim's atrocious stats; however, Houser might be an improvement, although he's only really played one game. We'll just have to see!
JJ is now #2 in the nation in passing efficiency!!
He's behind LSU's Jayden Daniels by a narrow margin, but ahead of Penix, Caleb Williams and Bo Nix (in that order).
"WE'RE IN THE ASS KICKING BUSINESS... AND BUSINESS IS BOOMING"
Weather Watch?
Since we're at the time of the year where the weather can really become an equilizing factor, I'll note that as of right now, weather in East Lansing at kickoff is predicted to be partly cloudy, 47F, with a low chance of rain (5%). Breezy, with winds expected of 10MPH. Perfect football weather.
Since we're at the time of the year where the weather can really become an equilizing factor, I'll note that as of right now, weather in East Lansing at kickoff is predicted to be partly cloudy, 47F, with a low chance of rain (5%). Breezy, with winds expected of 10MPH. Perfect football weather.
Upset watch?
I really just hope for an easy win with everyone leaving East Lansing healthy.
So go ahead and make your picks below, and post some analysis if you so choose, but as always, leave the woofing and the barking for other threads!
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