Working the Count

[Rebbiv]

McClendon has been quoted to say "I want my hitters to be aggressive.". This works to the other teams' advantage sometimes.

Case in point. On April 16, in Oakland, in the 2nd inning of a 0-0 game, DET has 2 on (1st and 3rd) and 1 out. Dallas Braden had thrown 19 pitches thus far. Up comes Inge and on the first pitch, grounds into an inning ending double play. The Tigers did score a run on an error in the inning, going up 1-0. They lose the game 6-2 (Verlander's 2nd loss).

On April 19, in Seattle, in the 7th inning of a 1-6 game, DET has bases loaded and 1 out. 3 singles and a walk in the inning and DET had brought the score to 2-6. Up comes Inge. Yup, first pitch grounded into double play, ending the inning and killing the rally.


Yes, there is a dichotomy here. On one hand, in most case, hitters do well in first pitch swinging. On the other, in some situations, that tendency can be exploited. Hitters gain even more advance in 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 counts.

I have always been for adding to a pitcher's pitch count. Earlier this year, I don't remember the exact game, but the opposing pitcher had thrown 6 straight balls and walked the first 2 hitters. The next two hitters were first ball swinging. The inning ended without any Tigers scoring and the opposing pitcher only threw about 15 pitches for the inning, despite walking the first 2 hitters.

Now DET leads all of the AL in 2011 in first pitch swinging (30.0%), and is 2nd (29.7%) only to TOR over the last 2 years. Additionally, DET is 2nd to the worst (BAL) in being able to work the count to 2-0 over the last 2 years. The lowest in 1st pitch swinging is BOS, LAA and MIN. The highest in 2-0 are NYY, BOS and TBR. The other interesting thing, DET leads all AL with 76% of all strikes being swinging strikes.


The AL AVG over the last 2 years is 25.9% 1st Pitch Swing and 13.9% 2-0.

Current DET Players Last 2 years 1st Pitch Swinging and 2-0 %

Player 1stP 2-1
Martinez 18.8% 18.1%
Jackson 23.1% 11.6%
Raburn 25.5% 13.2%

Inge 26.4% 13.9%
Kelly 26.9% 13.0%
Avila 27.8% 16.5%
Betemit 28.0% 13.8%
Peralta 29.1% 14.6%
Santiago 29.1% 13.2%

Ordonez 36.9% 11.6%
Guillen 38.0% 10.4%
Boesch 38.3% 12.3%
Cabrera 38.8% 14.3%
Young 39.5% 11.1%


Certain other players

Gardner 9.4% 18.3%
Granderson 13.3% 19.3%
Pujols 15.4% 18.9%


If you are an opposing pitcher and know Young swings about 40% of the time at the 1st Pitch and rarely works the count to 2-0, why on earth would you throw anything good? Certainly, batting him 3rd in front of Cabrera might mean he would see better pitches, but I don't think so. I would still pitch him to have him get himself out. Contrary, if you were pitching to Gardner, you would probably groove one down the middle of the plate, because he swings at less than 10% of the time on the first pitch.


I would also point out, Inge is a career 22% on 1st Pitch swinging, but in 2011, he had a career high of 31%. He also had his career high in 75% of total pitches as swinging strikes. (career avg 70%).

 

[batcave76]

Nothing more frustrating than seeing an opposing pitcher struggling w/control and the Tiger "aggressive bats" helping them out.

 

[tycobb420]

Nothing wrong with the "aggressive" approach if it is employed at the right time. Sometimes going up hacking is not a good idea while other times working the count lands a guy in a 0-2 count.

 

[Thumb]

You're assuming anyone actually listens to Lloyd.

I have a feeling most consider Lloyd an old grandfatherly type, you smile and nod and say "Okay Lloyd", but 5 mins. later put him out of your mind.

As far as first pitch swinging, some guys just do that, believing (and not incorrectly) that the first pitch thrown is usually a plain-jane down the heart of the plate fastball strike.

We really only get annoyed when it's a first pitch swing out, but we get plenty of first pitch hits too.

I have never had a problem with first pitch swinging, because I believe the longer the AB it's advantage to the pitcher (most times).

 

[batcave76]

You're assuming anyone actually listens to Lloyd.

I have a feeling most consider Lloyd an old grandfatherly type, you smile and nod and say "Okay Lloyd", but 5 mins. later put him out of your mind.

As far as first pitch swinging, some guys just do that, believing (and not incorrectly) that the first pitch thrown is usually a plain-jane down the heart of the plate fastball strike.

We really only get annoyed when it's a first pitch swing out, but we get plenty of first pitch hits too.

I have never had a problem with first pitch swinging, because I believe the longer the AB it's advantage to the pitcher (most times).

I'm talking about when a pitcher has poor control. IMO the longer the AB, the more it favors the hitter. Having long AB is just good in general. Gets a guys PC up for 1 thing.

 

[kalinecountry]

Once again we are indebted to Rebbiv/Kevin posting an interesting problem? with several Tigers hitters and including the numbers/percentages for them first pitch swinging/taking in strike zone.

It is something that in those instances with a pitcher having control problems and walking batters and Tigers having risp that gave me fits more often than not, this past year, and past years. Sure it is true that sometimes the first pitch swinging resulted in hits and driving in those runners in scoring position, but most times it seems it didn't.
Too many hitters too many times with a pitcher with 20 plus pitches and on the ropes would swing at the first pitch and gidp or a ground out pop up on a pitch that was a ball.
In fact, there is only one Tigers hitter I can think of that would take a pitch most of the time no matter what the game situation was, Victor Martinez. Every other hitter, great or infamously sucky was hacking more often than taking.
It is something that helps a team when they take pitches, first pitch, and not afraid to hit with a strike or two on them. Unfortunately for my taste, most Tigers batters don't fall into that category. Work the count and take pitches, purposely foul some off, it all adds to the pitch count and gets them to the middle relief quicker.
Some of the shittiest pitchers had low pitch counts into the 7th inning this year and past because most Tigers batters were hacking at the first pitch and chasing low or out of the strike zone pitcher's pitches.
This also has alot to do with lack of quality of several batters they have had.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Welcome to baseball. Players from across the land have been doing this for eternity. I have no problem withngjys swinging at the first pitch. You don't and even control pitchers will know that and throw it down the middle and you're at 0-1. DY had a nice post season by being aggressive.

 

[tycobb420]

I watched GM 7 of the 1960 WS last year and was amazed at how many players swung early in the count.

 

[tycobb420]

and I think Austin Jackson is completely confused as to whether or not to be aggressive or patient at the plate

 

[Mitchrapp]

When I look at Aj, he swings right through pitches over the plate. He also can't seem to reach the one right off the corner. Whether Aj is patience or aggressive he's striking out a ton. At least until he changes something.

 

[Rebbiv]

Well said KC.

Game situations certainly dictate the time and place. I have no problems when no one is on base. I have no problems when there is a runner on 3rd base and less than two outs, and the player gets a pitch they can drive to the outfield. It is the situations where the batter lets the pitcher off the hook and swings at the pitcher's pitch, exploiting the player's tendency.

Just because a player swung at the 1st pitch, does not mean the pitch was within the strike zone. Because he swung, it becomes a strike, but it could have been a ball and the count would be 1-0. Players actually do better when the count is in their favor.

Again, there is a dichotomy here. On one hand, it can be in the player's advantage. On the other, it can work against them and the team. Baseball is still a team sport and this is one are where the player should sacrifice individual performance for the good of the team.

Swinging at the first pitch after 2 straight walks is not good baseball, plain and simple.

 

[jimrice]

Another obvious benefit of working the pitch count is to get to the bull pen. Most teams, almost all in fact, have a couple of gas cans in the bullpen that pitch the 5th and 6th, if the team needs a reliever. Teams like NY and Boston have been exploiting those weak relievers for some time.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Well said KC.

Game situations certainly dictate the time and place. I have no problems when no one is on base. I have no problems when there is a runner on 3rd base and less than two outs, and the player gets a pitch they can drive to the outfield. It is the situations where the batter lets the pitcher off the hook and swings at the pitcher's pitch, exploiting the player's tendency.

Just because a player swung at the 1st pitch, does not mean the pitch was within the strike zone. Because he swung, it becomes a strike, but it could have been a ball and the count would be 1-0. Players actually do better when the count is in their favor.

Again, there is a dichotomy here. On one hand, it can be in the player's advantage. On the other, it can work against them and the team. Baseball is still a team sport and this is one are where the player should sacrifice individual performance for the good of the team.

Swinging at the first pitch after 2 straight walks is not good baseball, plain and simple.

You make it sound like players are swinging at the "pitchers pitch" on purpose. Easier said than done.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Another obvious benefit of working the pitch count is to get to the bull pen. Most teams, almost all in fact, have a couple of gas cans in the bullpen that pitch the 5th and 6th, if the team needs a reliever. Teams like NY and Boston have been exploiting those weak relievers for some time.

Or you could let the first two pitches go by Like Inge does. Teams like NY and Boston get to bullpens because they score a ton of runs. And its not all because of being patient at the plate.

 

[Rebbiv]

Mitch[/color]]

Well said KC.

Game situations certainly dictate the time and place. I have no problems when no one is on base. I have no problems when there is a runner on 3rd base and less than two outs, and the player gets a pitch they can drive to the outfield. It is the situations where the batter lets the pitcher off the hook and swings at the pitcher's pitch, exploiting the player's tendency.

Just because a player swung at the 1st pitch, does not mean the pitch was within the strike zone. Because he swung, it becomes a strike, but it could have been a ball and the count would be 1-0. Players actually do better when the count is in their favor.

Again, there is a dichotomy here. On one hand, it can be in the player's advantage. On the other, it can work against them and the team. Baseball is still a team sport and this is one are where the player should sacrifice individual performance for the good of the team.

Swinging at the first pitch after 2 straight walks is not good baseball, plain and simple.

You make it sound like players are swinging at the "pitchers pitch" on purpose. Easier said than done.

SMART ballplayers know when to swing, and when not to. Alan Trammell and Al Kaline immediately come to mind.


Pitch data is only available from 1988 to present. Trammell from 1988 - 1996 averaged 20% on first pitch swinging and worked the count to 2-0 almost 20% of the time. I doubt he ever swung a the 1st pitch immediately following a walk, same with Kaline.

Again, Young is a big part of this problem and is a below average offensive\defensive corner OFer. Studying any of his predictive stats does not show any promise of future success. It is a mindset. Anyone can go to the plate and NOT swing at the first pitch if they make up their mind beforehand.

Certain players, Cabrera as an example, make up for this tendancy with other skillsets. Heck, even Vlad Guerrero has a career of 47% 1st pitch swinging. Yet, during his prime, he was still working the count to 17-18% of the time. The last couple of years, it is down to only 9-10%. Think there isn't a correalation to his production dropoff?

Delmon Young has a career average of 46% 1st pitch swinging, but only works the count to 2-0 12% of the time. With DET this year, he was down to 40% 1st pitch swinging, but only 8% of working the count to 2-0.

One player isn't the issue. The issue is the team is comprised of similar players, who add to a cumulative effect. They are not designed to wear an opponent pitching out over a series (regular season or post season).

 

[Mitchrapp]

You might be right but don't give me a Hall of Famer and another should be Hall of Famer. The league is made up of more AJ types than Kaline types.

 

[thehippo73]

If you have an good aggressive hitter like Josh Hamilton, then it works. If you have a K machine like AJ, Raburn and Inge, then it doesn't.

 

[Mitchrapp]

If you have an good aggressive hitter like Josh Hamilton, then it works. If you have a K machine like AJ, Raburn and Inge, then it doesn't.

Simple but effective post.

 

[Rebbiv]

Mitch[/color]]

Another obvious benefit of working the pitch count is to get to the bull pen. Most teams, almost all in fact, have a couple of gas cans in the bullpen that pitch the 5th and 6th, if the team needs a reliever. Teams like NY and Boston have been exploiting those weak relievers for some time.

Or you could let the first two pitches go by Like Inge does. Teams like NY and Boston get to bullpens because they score a ton of runs. And its not all because of being patient at the plate.

BOS 21.7% 1st Pit 14.9% 2-0 3.985 P/PA
NYY 24.1% 1st Pit 16.0% 2-0 3.921 P/PA
TBR 28.1% 1st Pit 14.1% 2-0 3.925 P/PA

DET 29.7% 1st Pit 13.3% 2-0 3.781 P/PA

BOS has the lowest 1st Pit swinging, the most pitches per plate appearances and is 2nd in running to 2-0 counts. NYY leads is 2-0 counts, 2nd in pitches per plate appearances and 5th in 1st Pit swinging.

I threw Tampa Bay in, to show a team that has high 1st Pit swinging, but they 3rd in working the count to 2-0 and pitches per plate appearances.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Mitch[/color]]

Or you could let the first two pitches go by Like Inge does. Teams like NY and Boston get to bullpens because they score a ton of runs. And its not all because of being patient at the plate.

BOS 21.7% 1st Pit 14.9% 2-0 3.985 P/PA
NYY 24.1% 1st Pit 16.0% 2-0 3.921 P/PA
TBR 28.1% 1st Pit 14.1% 2-0 3.925 P/PA

DET 29.7% 1st Pit 13.3% 2-0 3.781 P/PA

BOS has the lowest 1st Pit swinging, the most pitches per plate appearances and is 2nd in running to 2-0 counts. NYY leads is 2-0 counts, 2nd in pitches per plate appearances and 5th in 1st Pit swinging.

I threw Tampa Bay in, to show a team that has high 1st Pit swinging, but they 3rd in working the count to 2-0 and pitches per plate appearances.

Because they have a very good hitting team. They get pitched around a lot. I'm sure Cabby gets to 2-0 counts a lot. But when aj or Inge come up there's no need. You throw it over the plate. Not much chance to be patience or they go 0-2 and 1-2. Which because they missed at a lot balls go 0-2 and 1-2 when aggressive.

My point is good hitters will get the 2-0's but bad hitters won't. Otherwise they'd be good hitters. If you follow where I drifted.