Working the Count

[jimrice]

Pretty typical thread.

Rebbiv posts stats and real info and all the rebuttals are conjecture.

Facts and info defeats hypothetical theory every time.

 

[Mitchrapp]

His stats on the last one doesn't differentiate between good players and bad. Of course guys like Inge and Aj will be 0-2 whether they are patience or not. And guys like Cabby will get to 2-0 more often. Well gee. No kidding. I don't need "stats" to tell me that.

 

[Rebbiv]

Mitch[/color]]His stats on the last one doesn't differentiate between good players and bad. Of course guys like Inge and Aj will be 0-2 whether they are patience or not. And guys like Cabby will get to 2-0 more often. Well gee. No kidding. I don't need "stats" to tell me that.

Look at my original post and any other, I never posted 0-2 stats.

Inge (13.9%) sees almost as many 2-0 counts as Cabrera (14.3). The AL average is 13.9% seeing 2-0. And DET is 2nd to last in seeing 2-0 counts, where BOS and NYY are at the top. Regardless, this was not Miggy bashing. Aside from Miggy, V-Mart, Peralta and Avila, no other Tiger is above league average. NYY, on the other hand, only has Cano (12.8%) below 15.0%. Avila and V-Mart are the only 2 Tigers above 15%.

Let me try anther approach. 63% of all pitches are strikes, yet only 58% of 1st pitches are strikes. A strike is any pitch called a strike or when the batter swings at it. It does not differentiate on whether the pitch would have been a ball had the batter not swung. So, if the batter hadn't swung, then "maybe" only 50-55%% of 1st pitches are strikes.

Now, even if the batter makes contact on a ball on the 1st pitch, it doesn't necessarily mean it was a hit. Which really only happens about a third of the time. It could be a GIDP, foul out, fly out, pop out, etc. And that pitch, if not swung at, could have been ball ONE. Which, by all accounts, makes it in the hitter's favor.

Again, I will point out the fact that this is a dichotomy. On one hand, there are advantages at 1st pitch swinging. Unfortunately, without extensive time and research, the data isn't available about success in 1st pitch swinging based on outs or runners on base.


2011 AL Averages

Batter Ahead = .302 BAVG .465 OBP .506 SLG .971 OPS

Even Count (1st Pit included) = .266 BAVG .271 OBP .417 SLG .688 OPS

Pitcher Ahead = .212 BAVG .219 OBP .316 SLG .535 OPS


2011 DET Hitters

Batter Ahead = .308 BAVG .471 OBP .509 SLG .980 OPS

Event Count = .293 BAVG .295 OBP .453 SLG .748 OPS

Pitcher Ahead = .230 BAVG .234 OBP .342 SLG .576 OPS


2010 DET Hitters

Batter Ahead = .341 BAVG .500 OBP .546 SLG 1.046 OPS

Even Count = .265 BAVG .272 OBP .402 SLG .674 OPS

Pitcher Ahead = .208 BAVG .213 OBP .313 SLG .526 OPS

 

[Mitchrapp]

Ironically Inge hit .129 @ 2-0 and Cabby only hit .275. So apparently it wasn't worth it to get 2-0. Though Cabby OBP was huge because this 2-0 become 4-0 by a intentional walk.

 

[jimrice]

Mitch[/color]]Ironically Inge hit .129 @ 2-0 and Cabby only hit .275. So apparently it wasn't worth it to get 2-0. Though Cabby OBP was huge because this 2-0 become 4-0 by a intentional walk.

You've got a sample size issue. Cabrera only had 17 at bats for the year at 2-0. For his career, in 128 AB's he's hitting a shade under .400. Inge, for his career, is hitting a robust .286 in 140 AB's with a 2-0 count.

edit- that's on the 2-0 count

After the 2-0 count Inge - .248 with .441 OBP

Cabrera .316 with .580 OBP

 

[Mitchrapp]

Well we were talking about 2011. I know they're small samples but its all they had.

 

[chrisinthed]

Cabby loves to swing on the first pitch, just ask Rod Allen!