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2017-2018 MLB Free Agent Predictions and Tracker

47. Chris Tillman – Tigers. One year, $10MM. Tillman was a key piece (alongside Adam Jones) received by the Orioles in the 2008 trade that sent Erik Bedard to the Mariners. However, he wasn’t able to crack the Orioles’ rotation for good until 2013, when he was out of minor league options. He made the All-Star team that year and racked up 128 starts for the club from 2013-16. Shoulder issues from late 2016 lingered into this year, and he didn’t pitch for the big league club until May 7th. Tillman went on to post an 8.15 ERA over 15 starts, getting clobbered for 102 hits (including 16 home runs) and 34 walks in 66 2/3 innings. He was moved to the bullpen for the first time in his career in August, though he later made some additional starts. To say 2017 was a lost year for Tillman would be an understatement. However, he doesn’t turn 30 until April, and he had more than four years of big league success as a starter. Assuming a clean bill of health, Tillman could be an interesting reclamation project for a new team, though he’s also been linked to a reunion with the O’s.
 
tomdalton22 said:
47. Chris Tillman ? Tigers. One year, $10MM. Tillman was a key piece (alongside Adam Jones) received by the Orioles in the 2008 trade that sent Erik Bedard to the Mariners. However, he wasn?t able to crack the Orioles? rotation for good until 2013, when he was out of minor league options. He made the All-Star team that year and racked up 128 starts for the club from 2013-16. Shoulder issues from late 2016 lingered into this year, and he didn?t pitch for the big league club until May 7th. Tillman went on to post an 8.15 ERA over 15 starts, getting clobbered for 102 hits (including 16 home runs) and 34 walks in 66 2/3 innings. He was moved to the bullpen for the first time in his career in August, though he later made some additional starts. To say 2017 was a lost year for Tillman would be an understatement. However, he doesn?t turn 30 until April, and he had more than four years of big league success as a starter. Assuming a clean bill of health, Tillman could be an interesting reclamation project for a new team, though he?s also been linked to a reunion with the O?s.
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3-Year Away xFIP (120 IP Min)

Tillman
2010-2012 = 4.64
2011-2013 = 4.15 (102 of 167)
2012-2014 = 4.10 (94 of 161)
2013-2015 = 4.26 (124 of 161)
2014-2016 = 4.60 (137 of 156)
2015-2017 = 4.75 (144 of 161)

2015-2017 3-Year Away xFIP (120 IP Min)

7. M. Scherzer 3.17
19. R. Ray 3.55
38. D. Price 3.79

42. J. Verlander 3.84
57. M. Fulmer 4.04
62. R. Porcello 4.09

93. D. Smyly 4.34
114. D. Norris 4.49

123. A. Sanchez 4.54
125. J. Zimmermann 4.58
136. D. Fister 4.68
143. C. Tillman 4.75
144. M. Boyd 4.86
157. M. Pelfrey 5.17

From 2012-2016, Tillman's most productive years, 161 starters had at least 200 IP Away and he still ranks 125 of 161 in xFIP. One stat, is his BABIP (batted balls in play). Where he has one of the lowest (ranked 25th). This means his fielders were providing him above average defense. As a comparison:

C. Kluber .242 OPP BAVG .315 BABIP
J. Verlander .242 OPP BAVG .303 BABIP
Z. Grenke .246 OPP BAVG .298 BABIP
C. Tillman .248 OPP BAVG .278 BABIP

AL AVG .253 OPP BAVG .293 BABIP
DET AL WORST .309 BABIP (dead last as well in DRS)

Tillman, when he was healthy, was a mediocre pitcher who was helped by team defense. To spend $10 Mil on a questionable healthy starter is absurd. Next to Pelfrey's $8 Mil per season, this would look like a bargain, but the results might be the same (assuming DET's defense does not drastically improve).
 
Rebbiv said:
3-Year Away xFIP (120 IP Min)

Tillman
2010-2012 = 4.64
2011-2013 = 4.15 (102 of 167)
2012-2014 = 4.10 (94 of 161)
2013-2015 = 4.26 (124 of 161)
2014-2016 = 4.60 (137 of 156)
2015-2017 = 4.75 (144 of 161)

2015-2017 3-Year Away xFIP (120 IP Min)

7. M. Scherzer 3.17
19. R. Ray 3.55
38. D. Price 3.79

42. J. Verlander 3.84
57. M. Fulmer 4.04
62. R. Porcello 4.09

93. D. Smyly 4.34
114. D. Norris 4.49

123. A. Sanchez 4.54
125. J. Zimmermann 4.58
136. D. Fister 4.68
143. C. Tillman 4.75
144. M. Boyd 4.86
157. M. Pelfrey 5.17

From 2012-2016, Tillman's most productive years, 161 starters had at least 200 IP Away and he still ranks 125 of 161 in xFIP. One stat, is his BABIP (batted balls in play). Where he has one of the lowest (ranked 25th). This means his fielders were providing him above average defense. As a comparison:

C. Kluber .242 OPP BAVG .315 BABIP
J. Verlander .242 OPP BAVG .303 BABIP
Z. Grenke .246 OPP BAVG .298 BABIP
C. Tillman .248 OPP BAVG .278 BABIP

AL AVG .253 OPP BAVG .293 BABIP
DET AL WORST .309 BABIP (dead last as well in DRS)

Tillman, when he was healthy, was a mediocre pitcher who was helped by team defense. To spend $10 Mil on a questionable healthy starter is absurd. Next to Pelfrey's $8 Mil per season, this would look like a bargain, but the results might be the same (assuming DET's defense does not drastically improve).
Click to expand...

I agree that he would be too much of a risk at that price. I would like to see them pick up one veteran starter on a one year contract though, but at a cheaper price. Somebody like him that has something to prove that they could move at the deadline if he pitches well.
 
FA Starters xFIP Last 3 Years Away:

#1s
Y. Darrvish 3.18
M. Pineda 3.28
J. Arrieta 3.44

#2s
J. Cueto 3.68
B. Anderson 3.72
T. Ross 3.76
S. Feldman 4.02
M. Fulmer 4.04

#3s
J. Lackey 4.17
W. Chen 4.21
C.C. Sabathia 4.29

#4s
C. Buchholz 4.29
L. Lynn 4.32
H. Iwakuma 4.32
F. Liriano 4.35
J. Garcia 4.35
J. Chavez 4.36
U. Jimenez 4.38
T. Chatwood 4.40
W. Miley 4.45
D. Norris 4.49
M. Fiers 4.49
#5s
R. Nolasco 4.51
J. Chachin 4.52
A. Sanchez 4.54
J. Zimmermann 4.58
B. Colon 4.62
W. Peralta 4.65
D. Fister 4.68
Y. Gallardo 4.69
J. Helickson 4.70
J. Locke 4.72
R.A. Dickey 4.74
A. Cobb 4.75
C. Tillman 5.75

M. Boyd 4.86
A. Cashner 4.89
M. Garza 4.90
J. Vargas 4.93
M. Pelfrey 5.17
M. Gonzalez 5.17
C. Young 5.22
A. Simon 5.42
H. Santiago 5.49
D. Holland 5.61

**italics are projected DET Starters

I wouldn't touch the bottom 23.
 
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His agent.. He wants the 7 years I suspect. Could it work like Prince where we gave him a huge deal late or backfire. I'd image he'd smoke it in Boston. Good place for stats.
 
McCutchen to the Giants. Only has 1 year left on contract...I expect more moves from SF....kinda mind boggling if you ask me. Braun and Cutch in the OF so far, not bad.
 
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tomdalton22 said:
Collusion or a market correction?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mauryb...abor-history-resurfaces-in-2018/#3780be23176e
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In a lot of cases, the players are getting the offers, they are just holding out for more years and the owners aren't caving. So it isn't collusion.

With the new CBA and how the Luxury Tax is applied, ALL teams are avoiding paying it a 2nd and/or 3rd time, by any means. Illitch SR would be in the same boat if he was alive. In a way, it has become a "salary cap".

Teams in rebuilding mode (Detroit) are not buying the premium Free Agents. Most playoff bound teams, are at the cusp of the Luxury Tax (Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc) and are not "over spending" to get someone. That leaves a finite number of teams who have the payroll flexibility to pay. When Eric Hosmer is offered 6 years for $125 Mil and is holding out for a 7th year. Who is going to swoop in and pay him? Even J.D. Martinez has been made offers, but is holding out for more years. We are talking about 5 or less teams that could even sign these guys.

Additionally, makes you wonder who Avila was beating to the punch when he signed Fiers and/or Martin. He claimed DET needed to jump or risk losing them. Losing them to whom? There are still plenty of Free Agents with the skills and same price range as Fiers and Martin on the market. Most will get less money then Fiers and/or Martin. Must be collusion.
 
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I started thinking last year or so that there was becoming an increasingly smaller and smaller number of teams that are still willing to take on huge team payrolls and not at all surprised so many free agents can’t find homes now at the prices they seek or believe the market will provide.. I think this trend may continue and start to show up more in other sports as well. Stuff cost too damn much, I still drive around a 15 year old truck with the bed all rusted out and ready to fall off in the road any year now cuz it cost to damn much for even a decent 5 year old used trucks for me it’s freaking ridiculous how much stuff costs, point being I don’t see how people can afford to continue supporting these multi million dollar salaries going to games and buying caps and jerseys etc. the market for sports cards is terrible you can’t give the stuff away. How many teams are out thier willing to pay huge salaries now 4-5 maybe 6? They can’t all play for the same team
 
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tigermud said:
I started thinking last year or so that there was becoming an increasingly smaller and smaller number of teams that are still willing to take on huge team payrolls and not at all surprised so many free agents can?t find homes now at the prices they seek or believe the market will provide.. I think this trend may continue and start to show up more in other sports as well. Stuff cost too damn much, I still drive around a 15 year old truck with the bed all rusted out and ready to fall off in the road any year now cuz it cost to damn much for even a decent 5 year old used trucks for me it?s freaking ridiculous how much stuff costs, point being I don?t see how people can afford to continue supporting these multi million dollar salaries going to games and buying caps and jerseys etc. the market for sports cards is terrible you can?t give the stuff away. How many teams are out thier willing to pay huge salaries now 4-5 maybe 6? They can?t all play for the same team
Click to expand...

I don't think it's teams can't afford it...they are just figuring out it just isn't worth it.

As far as sports card trading...that's really stupid if you think about it. Buying a piece of cardboard that has a picture of an athlete on it and think you should make money off of it?
 
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