2017-2018 MLB Free Agent Predictions and Tracker

[Rebbiv]

that article was printed in 2010. Since that time they have moved the fences in and lowered them. Also, there have been a few large buildings recently constructed behind RF that has reduced the wind which benefits balls hit towards RF (heard this on MLB radio the other day)

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/basebal...vorable-fantasy-baseball-hitters-pitchers-mlb

Once the most pitching-friendly ballpark in baseball, Petco's fence adjustments following the 2012 season helped bring it closer to the pack. That was especially true for left-handed hitters, who scarcely stood a chance in the venue's early days; this is actually now a neutral to slightly hitter-friendly ballpark in terms of home runs, and it's almost league average in terms of hits (0.964 factor) and extra-base hits (0.956). But the main reason that Petco is still regarded an extreme pitchers' park is its strikeout potential; its 1.058 factor is sixth-highest in the game.

 

[tomdalton22]

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/basebal...vorable-fantasy-baseball-hitters-pitchers-mlb

Once the most pitching-friendly ballpark in baseball, Petco's fence adjustments following the 2012 season helped bring it closer to the pack. That was especially true for left-handed hitters, who scarcely stood a chance in the venue's early days; this is actually now a neutral to slightly hitter-friendly ballpark in terms of home runs, and it's almost league average in terms of hits (0.964 factor) and extra-base hits (0.956). But the main reason that Petco is still regarded an extreme pitchers' park is its strikeout potential; its 1.058 factor is sixth-highest in the game.

I have never heard of a park having strikeout potential. What makes a park have more strikeout potential than another park?

 

[Rebbiv]

I have never heard of a park having strikeout potential. What makes a park have more strikeout potential than another park?

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/batted-balls-and-park-effects/

 

[tomdalton22]

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/batted-balls-and-park-effects/

so humidity is the main cause?

 

[Mitchrapp]

so humidity is the main cause?

Did I miss something from that link?

 

[Rebbiv]

so humidity is the main cause?

Certainly, along with altitude (thin air). How breaking balls react in dense or thin air or not react effects a lot of things. Even fastballs will tend to have varying outcomes. Foul territory, especially large amounts helps the pitcher as well. While small foul territories helps the hitter. Orientation of home plate, believe it or not, has an effect. Does the prevailing wind mostly blow in, blow out, or across the diamond? If the prevailing wind mostly blows out, adding another 10 feet to the outfield doesn't do anything.

I have been harping on home park biases for years. The only true measurement for anyone player is to look at his away stats. This mitigates any home park effects, as all players have to play 81 games on the road. Any randomness from 1 year's data is omitted when looking at larger sample sizes. So, generally, for sabermetrics, 3 years give a better indication for past performance. And while a ballpark as a whole might be a "hitters" park, it might be more favorable to lefties than righties, or vice versa. Again, looking at a good sample rate of away statistics all of this is mute.

 

[tomdalton22]

Did I miss something from that link?

we were talking about ballparks and strikeout rates.

 

[Mitchrapp]

we were talking about ballparks and strikeout rates.

I get that but where did humidity come in? I must have skipped over that park..

 

[tomdalton22]

I get that but where did humidity come in? I must have skipped over that park..

from the article

It has long been known that parks affect strikeouts, but it?s nice to finally know just how great the effect is and where it?s most important. Given the presence of the Marlins and Mariners at the top of the list, and the Rockies and Diamondbacks near the bottom, it seems that humidity is one of the biggest determinants of strikeout park effects.

 

[Mitchrapp]

So higher humidity, Marlins, more strikeouts? Though Arizona with their low humidity, plays in-doors.

 

[kalinecountry]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/phillies-jake-arrieta-agree-to-deal.html
Phillies, Jake Arrieta Agree To Three-Year Deal.
MLBTR