Avila and Passed Balls/Wild Pitches

[tigersofjustice]

First, your are the one that brought up Ruiz.

Second, I took career Wild Pitches and normalized them at 200 IP. What don't you get? The fact that Verlander averages 8.28 per 200 IP for his career versus Cliff Lee at 4.33. Verlander has thrown to more catchers than Avila in his career and Lee has thrown to more catchers than Ruiz.

In 2007, Verlander had 17 WP with Pudge as the primary catcher.


DET (PB/WP)

2012 2/10 (5.00)
2011 8/69 (8.63)
2010 11/75 (6.82)
2009 15/48 (3.20)
2008 16/65 (4.06)
2007 10/75 (7.50)

NYY (PB/WP

2012 1/10 (10.00)
2011 7/67 (9.57)
2010 12/69 (5.75)
2009 11/66 (6.00)
2008 11/55 (5.00)
2007 16/59 (3.69)

AL (PB/WP)

2012 24/109 (4.54)
2011 148/776 (5.24) (8.26 WP per 200 IP)
2010 141/835 (5.92)
2009 153/728 (4.76)
2008 152/751 (4.94)
2007 160/754 (4.71)

Avila Career 19/111 (5.84) (10.02 WP per 200 IP)

Laird last 4 years 17/77 (4.53) (7.60 WP per 200 IP)

I don't get why you think this supports your point? Or I don't get your point.

Is your point that some of the difference can be explained by the differences in pitchers? If that's it than ok, I would have agreed with that before you spent time looking up and posting those stats. If that's it fine, you just wasted a bunch of time and effort making it when it did not need be made.

Is your point that it explains away the entire difference? If so that's not just wrong it's crazy.

 

[byco42]

One would think that a simple stats like "BlPi/9" or "Blocked Pitches per 9 innings" would be easy to find. There is a stat called rdrs/yr (defensive runs saved per 1200 innings) and Avila is a career -7 while Ruiz is a career +5.

 

[tigersofjustice]

One would think that a simple stats like "BlPi/9" or "Blocked Pitches per 9 innings" would be easy to find. There is a stat called rdrs/yr (defensive runs saved per 1200 innings) and Avila is a career -7 while Ruiz is a career +5.

I don't think I personally have ever seen "blocked pitches" stats. Pitches 'blocked' could be either determined to be a WP or PB if they get through so it would probably be better off jump if you normalize it to the pitching staff. That's another issue though. In general, it is hard to measure but large differences in raw numbers should be enough to get the gist of one's ability. Good staff or not, Ruiz's 101 WP in 600+ games is sick.

 

[Rebbiv]

This is a complex issue. You are being hyper-critical of Avila. Sure, he isn't the best at blocking pitches. But he is NOT one of the worst.

Another issue to use as a "comparrison". Is a stolen base off the pitcher or catcher? I will argue it is off the pitcher. But, some catcher's have a higher rate at which other team's try. For example, not many ran on Pudge (less than a stolen base attempt per game). And then, some catcher had a higher rate of attempts, but showed a high percent of caught stealing. Why? Because not just your fast guys tried stealing, you middle speed guys were also attempting. Hence why I do not look soley at CS%. It isn't the best gauge.

Now, with the above in mind, there is a lot when it comes to Pass Balls and Wild Pitches. While some official scores may get it wrong at first, most of the time it is corrected.

Pass Ball = a catcher is charged with a passed ball when he fails to hold or control a legally pitched ball that, with ordinary effort, should have been maintained under his control.

Notice the words "ordinary effort". This is what gets scores into trouble.

Wild Pitch is charged against a pitcher when his pitch is too high, too short, or too wide of home plate for the catcher to control with ordinary effort, thereby allowing a baserunner, perhaps even the batter-runner on strike three or ball four, to advance.

Again. Ordinary Effort. Yes, pitching staffs play a huge part in this. Take a guy like A.J. Burnett. He has 124 WP in his career. 58 in the last 3 seasons before this one. You cannot tell me it is the catcher. And guess what? Not only was his WP high over the last 3 years, so were the passed balls.

What came first, the chicken or the egg? Is it the catcher or the pitcher? Is it the pitching staff? The harder the pitcher throws, the harder it is to block. And, the Tigers are full of hard throwers.

 

[tigersofjustice]

This is a complex issue. You are being hyper-critical of Avila. Sure, he isn't the best at blocking pitches. But he is NOT one of the worst.

Another issue to use as a "comparrison". Is a stolen base off the pitcher or catcher? I will argue it is off the pitcher. But, some catcher's have a higher rate at which other team's try. For example, not many ran on Pudge (less than a stolen base attempt per game). And then, some catcher had a higher rate of attempts, but showed a high percent of caught stealing. Why? Because not just your fast guys tried stealing, you middle speed guys were also attempting. Hence why I do not look soley at CS%. It isn't the best gauge.

Now, with the above in mind, there is a lot when it comes to Pass Balls and Wild Pitches. While some official scores may get it wrong at first, most of the time it is corrected.

Pass Ball = a catcher is charged with a passed ball when he fails to hold or control a legally pitched ball that, with ordinary effort, should have been maintained under his control.

Notice the words "ordinary effort". This is what gets scores into trouble.

Wild Pitch is charged against a pitcher when his pitch is too high, too short, or too wide of home plate for the catcher to control with ordinary effort, thereby allowing a baserunner, perhaps even the batter-runner on strike three or ball four, to advance.

Again. Ordinary Effort. Yes, pitching staffs play a huge part in this. Take a guy like A.J. Burnett. He has 124 WP in his career. 58 in the last 3 seasons before this one. You cannot tell me it is the catcher. And guess what? Not only was his WP high over the last 3 years, so were the passed balls.

What came first, the chicken or the egg? Is it the catcher or the pitcher? Is it the pitching staff? The harder the pitcher throws, the harder it is to block. And, the Tigers are full of hard throwers.

Again I agree with all of this. I don't deny it is very difficult to assign blame for BP/WP.

That said beyond a certain point it becomes evident that one person has more skill than another. I'm not saying Avila is the worst. Evidence would seem to indicate at the very least JP Arencibia is worse than Avila. What I am saying is that it is very frustrating to watch a catcher who seemingly cannot block balls.

There is a lot of inexact measurement. That said, I feel pretty confident is saying Avila is below average at blocking balls and that Ruiz is above average, as an example. It is almost impossible to prove this with certainty but knowing the frequency of the event, the impact of the pitching staff, the responsibility of the pitching staff and the likelihood of error, you can make reasonable guesses as to quality.

P.S. I would add I think calling out Avila on literally the only significant negative on his defense isn't really being 'overly critical', I went out of my way to point that out before I complained about this particular negative.

 

[Rebbiv]

However, Avila might be one of the worst catchers I've ever seen when it comes to letting the ball get to the backstop.

Note your comment about one of the worst.

 

[deathroh]

Yesterday - "Avila might be one of the worst catchers I've ever seen when it comes to letting the ball get to the backstop."

Today - "I feel pretty confident is saying Avila is below average at blocking balls"

That's good stuff

 

[gotime909]

You guys and your numbers...

 

[tigersofjustice]

Yesterday - "Avila might be one of the worst catchers I've ever seen when it comes to letting the ball get to the backstop."

Today - "I feel pretty confident is saying Avila is below average at blocking balls"

That's good stuff

I will address both you and Rebbiv here.

How is "might be one of the worst" and "confident in saying Avila is below average" much different? Explain that to me. Both imply he is in the bottom half of the league. One conspicuously uses the adverb "might" which implies some doubt and the other uses the adjective "confident" which implies certainty.

So I said with doubt that he is one of the worst and with confidence that he is below average with pretty much puts his range squarely in 30 < x < 15, I don't know why it is you cannot take the English language and the words therein for what they very clearly mean.

Do you want me to put an actual number on it? I just admitted it is hard to measure.

 

[Mitchrapp]

You guys and your numbers...

No kidding. 25 PB or 27, who gives a crap.

 

[Rebbiv]

Worst being a superlative, I was confused.

"might be one of the worst" = maybe not the worst, but in the top 2-3. At least based on my understanding.

 

[Thumb]

You guys and your numbers...

Baseball is a numbers game.

 

[deathroh]

I will address both you and Rebbiv here.

How is "might be one of the worst" and "confident in saying Avila is below average" much different? Explain that to me. Both imply he is in the bottom half of the league. One conspicuously uses the adverb "might" which implies some doubt and the other uses the adjective "confident" which implies certainty.

So I said with doubt that he is one of the worst and with confidence that he is below average with pretty much puts his range squarely in 30 < x < 15, I don't know why it is you cannot take the English language and the words therein for what they very clearly mean.

Do you want me to put an actual number on it? I just admitted it is hard to measure.

Those things are different, but not as different as what you actually said. You keep "might" in one quote, but omit "pretty" from the other. Pretty shady, especially when you say that you actually used "confident" with certainty.

You also left out "I've ever seen" after the first quote, so no, it's not 30 < x < 15 for both. I'm not sure how many catchers you've seen play, but I'm guessing your assessment would put Avila somewhere in the hundreds.

 

[tigersofjustice]

Those things are different, but not as different as what you actually said. You keep "might" in one quote, but omit "pretty" from the other. Pretty shady, especially when you say that you actually used "confident" with certainty.

You also left out "I've ever seen" after the first quote, so no, it's not 30 < x < 15 for both. I'm not sure how many catchers you've seen play, but I'm guessing your assessment would put Avila somewhere in the hundreds.

Well I suppose the certainty in the second statements would make it more like:

30 < X <<<15 so maybe more 24ish. But yes, of catchers who I have had the opportunity to watch enough to have truly "seen" them that statement still applies. Even though I know JP Arencibia stinks at it I really don't watch him play very much.

I actually just took the quotes the other guy used as well.

 

[tigersofjustice]

Avila does it again!

Unlike many on here, I don't follow someone around every at bat and when they don't get a hit accuse them of being terrible. Bias in samples is a horrible thing IMO. That said, I point this out because Avila seems to have a habit of doing this late in games with the score close. That's probably just my selection bias talking but it is annoying.

 

[Thumb]

Well, the radio broadcast (Dan Petry) said it looked like both WP's were because Dotel crossed up Avila and threw a pitch that was not called.

Or Dotel forgot the signs change with a man on second...

Either way, that's not on Avila.

 

[spockmaster]

yes, avila is to blame for Dotel not knowing how to throw the ball anywhere close to the plate.

idiot.

 

[tigersofjustice]

yes, avila is to blame for Dotel not knowing how to throw the ball anywhere close to the plate.

idiot.

Ha, did you watch the game? If you did, you would see that he tried to back hand the ball and that the ball hit him right in the mitt before it went to the back stop.

You are aware they scored it as a passed ball right?

You guys can say that Dotel crossed him up (even assuming it was Dotel's mistake which apparently you are without any support), the fact is Avila didn't get his body behind a ball within his reach, he tried to stab it like he always does, he missed like he frequently does, and he got a passed ball deservedly so because even if it was a tough ball to pick, the majority of catchers would have at least blocked it.

 

[Thumb]

You say the majority of catchers would have blocked it.

Then say I said something without any support. I'm, telling you what Dan Petry said.

You saying the majority of catcher would block that is out of your ass, you have no way to back that up.

 

[Rebbiv]

Firstbasemen are expected to come up with the throws in the dirt. Yet, the fielder is suppose to throw the ball chest high. Most throws in the dirt are awarded errors on the fielder, not the firstbaseman.

Now, I have seen catchers miss a pitch that never hit the dirt. That to me is a passed ball. I have a hard time saying a ball that hits the dirt is a passed ball.

Pass Ball = a catcher is charged with a passed ball when he fails to hold or control a legally pitched ball that, with ordinary effort, should have been maintained under his control.

Again, what is "ordinary" effort?

When a pitcher has 2 walks, a wild pitch, a passed ball and a hit (in that order) without recording an out, there obviously is an issue (control?, manager?).

I certainly hoping you are not somehow blaming Avila for the loss.