Berry

[Mitchrapp]

Because he is getting lucky with his hits and has no power.

So now we're going to take away lucky hits?

 

[Mitchrapp]

And who says you need everyone to have Power?

 

[mjsb2]

You bat Jackson leadoff rather than 6th, because leadoff is much more important than batting 6th.

Jackson doesn't run that much because,

1. SB don't have a lot of value.
2. It doesn't make sense to risk getting thrown out when you have Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder coming up behind you, when even if you're successful you aren't adding much value.

Speed is more valuable lower in the lineup than at the top.

 

[tazmac]

Because he is getting lucky with his hits and has no power.

By far the dumbest thing I have seen written on these boards in some time.

 

[Thumb]

By far the dumbest thing I have seen written on these boards in some time.

Then you have very little concept of dumb.

 

[Thumb]

And what is exactly wrong with that idea? As long as Berry gets on why not have him batting leadoff? With that speed at first it equates more fastballs for 2 hole and 3 hole.

You want to take the best hitter on the team currently, and move him out of his lineup position for a kid who has played a whopping 6 games in MLB?

Aside from the fact that if the kid stays with the team after Ajax comes up, it's likely he's not going to be in the starting lineup most nights.

 

[buddyboy2121]

So now we're going to take away lucky hits?

Of course not, but you can't rely on him to be a dependable leadoff hitter.

 

[buddyboy2121]

By far the dumbest thing I have seen written on these boards in some time.

You thinking Berry should be the leadoff hitter is one of the dumbest things I've seen. He isn't even hitting that good right now.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Of course not, but you can't rely on him to be a dependable leadoff hitter.

Who gives a crap about lead off and no one knows for sure anyway.

A whole bunch of us thought the same before the season about AJ and look, he's killing the ball and getting on base.

Nonetheless, someone, whether its Berry or another ml guy deserves a shot over someone like Raburn or Kelly.

 

[mjsb2]

By far the dumbest thing I have seen written on these boards in some time.

Over the sample size of 6 games, or whatever it is, luck is much more prevalent than skill.

 

[biggunsbob]

Over the sample size of 6 games, or whatever it is, luck is much more prevalent than skill.

And yet everyone suggests that because raburn has miraculously only committed 2 errors in only 23 games at second he is all of a sudden this great 2nd basemen when we all know better. As of right now today there is no way either Kelly or Raburn deserve at bats over berry.( and a few others) So we bat Berry 9th when Jackson comes back... Now that would be nice... Like a extra lead-off hitter. If Berry can just bat .250 it will still be 100 yes 100 points higher then Raburn... And to think the Tigers never would have even tried this unless Jackson got hurt.. I could care less what is in the system as of right now Raburn is costing the team games going on a full 2 months...

 

[biggunsbob]

There has to be a trade DD can do... We just cannot have this black hole at second..Might as well call someone up who has some decent speed for pinch running in late innings until he does.. At least Worth got a hit today... Did Raburn even take his bat off his shoulders...

 

[bdtay1971]

You bat Jackson leadoff rather than 6th, because leadoff is much more important than batting 6th.

Jackson doesn't run that much because,

1. SB don't have a lot of value.
2. It doesn't make sense to risk getting thrown out when you have Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder coming up behind you, when even if you're successful you aren't adding much value.

Speed is more valuable lower in the lineup than at the top.

I agree with your post except that SB don't have a lot of value. Where are you getting that? Berry is the kind of guy who can never hit the ball out of the infield but be in scoring position every time he gets on base. Guys that can steal also put a tremendous amount of pressure on the P when they reach. Sorry but that statement is ridiculous.

 

[mjsb2]

And yet everyone suggests that because raburn has miraculously only committed 2 errors in only 23 games at second he is all of a sudden this great 2nd basemen when we all know better. As of right now today there is no way either Kelly or Raburn deserve at bats over berry.( and a few others) So we bat Berry 9th when Jackson comes back... Now that would be nice... Like a extra lead-off hitter. If Berry can just bat .250 it will still be 100 yes 100 points higher then Raburn... And to think the Tigers never would have even tried this unless Jackson got hurt.. I could care less what is in the system as of right now Raburn is costing the team games going on a full 2 months...

Who has said Raburn a great 2B?

Why the hell do you bring up Raburn at every opportunity, I never said anything about giving Raburn abs over Berry.

Berry has no spot in the starting lineup when Jackson comes back.

I think they should keep him, but only on the bench.

Raburn should be optioned to AAA and Kelly should as well.

Berry should not be a starter though.

 

[mjsb2]

I agree with your post except that SB don't have a lot of value. Where are you getting that? Berry is the kind of guy who can never hit the ball out of the infield but be in scoring position every time he gets on base. Guys that can steal also put a tremendous amount of pressure on the P when they reach. Sorry but that statement is ridiculous.

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

 

[Thumb]

Who has said Raburn a great 2B?

Why the hell do you bring up Raburn at every opportunity, I never said anything about giving Raburn abs over Berry.

Berry has no spot in the starting lineup when Jackson comes back.

I think they should keep him, but only on the bench.

Raburn should be optioned to AAA and Kelly should as well.

Berry should not be a starter though.

I feel your pain, the whole everything revolves around Raburn song is getting too much play from some people.

And regardless, Berry is not going to bat 9th because he wont be in the everyday lineups, there are only 3 OF spots, and they are taken, and Berry does not have the skills to DH, or play 2B.

 

[Rebbiv]

40-man roster positional players (27 or under)

NYY = 23 (9)
SEA = 22 (14)
BOS = 22 (9)
CLE = 21 (13)
OAK = 21 (12)
TOR = 21 (11)
TBR = 20 (11)
KCR = 19 (10)
LAA = 19 (8)
MIN = 18 (11)
BAL = 18 (7)
TEX = 17 (7)
DET = 16 (9)
CHW = 15 (6)

Prior to adding Quintin to the 40-man roster, DET was tied with CHW with the lowest number of positional players on the 40-man roster. Berry is a AAAA OFer, who can at least provide replacement level value. A bonus is that he knows how to draw walks.

In 26 games for the month of May, DET has grounded into 32 double plays. 50 GIDP in 48 games on pace for 169.

DET GIDP

2011 - 142
2010 - 118
2009 - 131
2008 - 144
2007 - 128
2006 - 120
2005 - 138
2004 - 111
2003 - 114
2002 - 125
2001 - 120


Speed does matter when it comes to GIDP. Unfortunately, I doubt Leyland knows how to use it properly. And yes, sometimes you send the runner to negate the possibility of the double play. It also opens up holes when the SS or 2B have to play close to the bag. Sometimes the threat of a steal is almost as good as the steal itself.

BUT...the success rate has to be above 75% for a stolen base to be effective. After going 6 SB 3 CS in April (66.7%), DET has gone 15 SB 2 CS in May (88.2%). I would hate to see the GIDP in May without these steals.

 

[bdtay1971]

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

Sorry but I judge what I see with my eyes and not what some stupid mathematical equation spits out. I agree though that Berry has no spot in the line-up when Ajax returns but we really need to find a guy with his skill set to play 2B, granted guys that can steal bases like that are not a dime a dozen.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I feel your pain, the whole everything revolves around Raburn song is getting too much play from some people.

And regardless, Berry is not going to bat 9th because he wont be in the everyday lineups, there are only 3 OF spots, and they are taken, and Berry does not have the skills to DH, or play 2B.

That's the problem but you move DY to DH and Raburn is the 2B, on some days, left is now open. I don't think anyone expects Berry to be a star but if he's going good why not play him until he's not going good? Maybe lightning in the bottle.

And honestly, I'm surprised there isn't more outrage about Raburn. This isn't an AS player who should get the benefit of the doubt.

Anyway, about SB, as pointed out by rebbiv you need a high % of steals to caught to have it worth it. Guys like Miggy, even though it might be fun should never steal. It's just not worth it.

 

[Rebbiv]

Sorry but I judge what I see with my eyes and not what some stupid mathematical equation spits out. I agree though that Berry has no spot in the line-up when Ajax returns but we really need to find a guy with his skill set to play 2B, granted guys that can steal bases like that are not a dime a dozen.

There are many forms of Linear Weights. Most take their information from historical data. For example, from 1974-1990, a man on 1B with no outs scores 38.0% of the time. On 2B with no outs, it increases to 61.0%.

Now, part of linear weights is the "predicting" of big innings or Run Expectnacy. Each event is given a value based on historical data. For instance, a HR is given 1.402, meaning that is the amount of runs you can expect from a HR. 1331 of 2271 (58.6%) of AL HRs in 2011 were solo homeruns. 1261 of 2209 (57.1%) in 2010. 1514 of 2560 (59.1%) in 2009.

Single = .460

Stolen Base = .193

Single + stolen base = .653

Double = .750

Caught Stealing = (- .437)

Strike Out = (- .269)

Out = (- .265)

Now, why is a double greater than single + stolen base? Because a double will generate more runs batted in than a single. Notice that a strike out is not much difference than another out. Caught Stealing is the most run prohibitive event to occur.

Most stolen bases are probably stolen off of the pitcher, but who is catching dictates whether there are more or less attempts. Who is Miguel Cabrera attempting to steal off of? And is the risk worth the gain?

Examples of two players (some offensive data):


Player A 99 S 36 D 3 T 22 HR 7 SB 4 CS = 106.09 Run Expectancy

Player B 127 S 24 D 3 T 6 HR 62 SB 15 CS = 93.34 Run Expectancy


Assuming everything else the same (i.e. Walks, HBP, etc), Player B will provide you a higher Run Expectancy. As pointed out in a previous post, I firmly believe DET needs more speed guys. However, if that is just speed, without some power (Berry), then the net effect is not what you think it will be.