I have some thoughts about Baseball America ranking the #Tigers system 14th right now.
This is a good thing, absolutely. The Tigers have more prospect depth than they?ve had in years. Moving from 30th in 2015 to 14th by mid-2018 is certainly progress.
But I think we need to look at this a bit more critically than just pointing to numbers and declaring the Tigers are on the right track.
The first question is...could they have done better than that, considering where they?ve drafted and who they?ve traded?
For context, let?s look how other franchises compare to the Tigers? jump in three years:
The Padres went from 25 in 2016 to 1 now.
The Blue Jays went from 24 in 2016 to 3 now.
The White Sox went from 23 in 2016 to 4 now.
The Braves went from 29 in 2015 to 5 now...
The Twins went from 22 last year to 7 now.
The Angels went from 30 last year to 10 now.
So that?s six teams that have improved their farms as much or more than the Tigers during this span. And the Angels and Blue Jays did so without a complete tear down...
Also, plenty of teams have been actively trading and promoting players to improve at the MLB level, so it?s not right to compare their movement on the list to a rebuilding club.
So I?d argue the Tigers, progress, while real, isn?t particularly impressive compared to their peers.
Lastly, let?s move past abstract system rankings and just take a realistic look at the actual players in the BA top 10.
1 - Casey Mize: Strong chance to be a #3 starter; possibly better.
2 - Franklin Perez: Mid-rotation potential, but shoulder injury now makes him a huge risk.
3 - Matt Manning: Good progress this year; frontline potential; still plenty of hurdles to clear.
4 - Alex Faedo: Stuff not where it was in college. Chance to be a backend starter.
5 - Christin Stewart: Chance to be average MLB player, but likely needs to hit 30HR to do so.
6 - Beau Burrows: Good fastball but inconsistent secondaries and below-average command point to future as reliever.
7 - Daz Cameron: Terrific year. Good chance to be average MLB outfielder, possibly more.
8 - Isaac Paredes: Fantastic progress. Likely MLB regular at 2B or 3B.
9 - Wenceel Perez: Impressive bat-to-ball skills, should stick at short. Light years away.
10 - Kyle Funkhouser: Solid year. Injuries, age, and command point to bullpen.
Bonus - Jake Rogers: Won?t hit for average, but plus D, power, and patience could make him average regular.
That?s 3 potential starting pitchers, 4 average regulars, 2 bullpen arms, and 2 wild cards (the Perezes). Probably not a superstar in the bunch.
It?s a good start, but there?s a long way to go. Probably need to trade Fulmer and Boyd and nail the next 2 drafts to have a chance.
Chris Brown TheAthletic
