Fantasy vs. Reality

[jared]

I was looking through player ratings this year, and noticed that Stafford is ranked the 4th best FFL QB this year on ESPN standard.

The projection is 61% Comp | 6.9 YPA | 4471 Passing Yds | 32 TDs | 19 INT

Would you guys be happy with that?

I also would love to hear what affect you guys think FFL has on the general opinion of Stafford. I think many NFL fans are confusing fantasy production with how good the player is in reality. Stafford isn't the only one, but his case is very interesting to me.

Last season, he ranked #7 in fantasy scoring for QBs, #19 in Passer Efficiency Rating, and #18 in QBR.

As an aside he ranked 3rd ALL TIME in the True Win/No Fault INT/Inflated Drop Rate/Sunshine and Rainbows Rating. (TW/NFI/IDR/SaRR) This name is going to catch on, trust me.

Using this highly scientific rating (game film viewed in a basement),he was just behind Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas. With his current trajectory, it is expected that he will be the GOAT by the Miami game in November.

For the record, I think currently Stafford is a better than average to good QB. I think he will improve some with age, and become very good. I don't think he will ever reach the Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers level. They are, IMO, the elite QBs currently. I think he will end up in the 6-10 in the league range. I think we overpaid. And I really hope I'm wrong.

 

[dubbsco]

I saw that ESPN list. Tom Brady was like 13th. So that should answer whether or not fantasy mirrors real talent/production.

Stafford is going to benefit massively from the fact that the Lions are going to throw a ton, and has TONS OF WEAPONS all around him.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_att_per_g_career.htm

 

[cheeno]

First of all I'd like to offer LKP a COSTCO size Kirkland brand bottle of Aloe Vera for that burn. Second I'd be happy as hell with those numbers because I think we go to the playoffs if Stafford puts up those stats. Not quite 2011 but we have a much improved run game to make up the slack. Dub kinda stole my thunder with fantasy vs. reality, but even fantasy vs. fantasy he's not even rated properly. Cam Newton is going like three rounds after Stafford and has never finished outside the top five fantasy qbs in each of his first five seasons.

 

[mhughes0021]

He's going to have a monster year. Either that or he sucks REAL BAD. That being said I think 19 ints is too high. None of them were staffords fault though...right?

also his predicted yards is probably low....I think he pushes for 5k again....like 4800 im guessing.

 

[tomdalton22]

I thought this was going to be a thread dedicated to LKP's delusional views vs. the views of most rational fans.

 

[mhughes0021]

I thought this was going to be a thread dedicated to LKP's delusional views vs. the views of most rational fans.

i really did too before I opened it lol.

 

[mhughes0021]

maybe we should hi jack it and turn it into an lkp thread...ill start

broyles is the black wes welker vs broyles is injured all the time and doesn't play
fox is jake long vs fox sucks, was beat out by a UDFA and released
Greenwood is Richard Sherman vs Greenwood is best known for his ongoing 3 year belly button infection and has been cut twice from 2 of the worst secondaries in the nfl
Florence is Haden vs cut

there....I got the ball rolling for you guys.

 

[LKP]

Reality

The Lions are winning at least 10 games this regular season, probably more and will have a deep run in the playoffs. Too much talent (holeless and deep), good coaching now, the turnovers will be reduced.

Get on the train or eat crow.

 

[tomdalton22]

Reality

The Lions are winning at least 10 games this regular season, probably more and will have a deep run in the playoffs. Too much talent (holeless and deep), good coaching now, the turnovers will be reduced.

Get on the train or eat crow.

is that 10 true wins or real wins? Because in LKP fantasy world the Lions had 13 true wins last year but actually only won 7.

 

[LKP]

is that 10 true wins or real wins? Because in LKP fantasy world the Lions had 13 true wins last year but actually only won 7.

I said probably more. 11-5 is my record prediction with 13-14 true wins.

 

[mhughes0021]

so itd look like this:

lions are winning 11 games but should have won 14 if the sun wasn't in their eyes. they are holeless with a ton of depth and will go deep into the playoffs with one of the best coaches in the nfl

vs

the lions have the talent to win 7 games and have no depth but might get lucky and win 10. 10 games wont get them into the playoffs. They were let down by the 27th best coach in the nfl and their crappy GM that put together yet another losing effort. maybe next year....

 

[jared]

so itd look like this:

lions are winning 11 games but should have won 14 if the sun wasn't in their eyes. they are holeless with a ton of depth and will go deep into the playoffs with one of the best coaches in the nfl

vs

the lions have the talent to win 7 games and have no depth but might get lucky and win 10. 10 games wont get them into the playoffs. They were let down by the 27th best coach in the nfl and their crappy GM that put together yet another losing effort. maybe next year....

As usual, I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. You two are like watching liberals vs. tea party. My guess is 8-9 wins and a possible (not probable) wild card. I'm really happy Gym Shorts is gone. Caldwell was not the teams first or probably second choice, but honestly I'll settle for a coach who shows some class. This team's personality has been impossibly hard to root for during the Schwartz era. There are definite upgrades at WR and TE, which creates a bit more depth there. We are not a contending team, but we aren't Jacksonville, either. (even though they have a better coach lol)

 

[mhughes0021]

As usual, I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. You two are like watching liberals vs. tea party. My guess is 8-9 wins and a possible (not probable) wild card. I'm really happy Gym Shorts is gone. Caldwell was not the teams first or probably second choice, but honestly I'll settle for a coach who shows some class. This team's personality has been impossibly hard to root for during the Schwartz era. There are definite upgrades at WR and TE, which creates a bit more depth there. We are not a contending team, but we aren't Jacksonville, either. (even though they have a better coach lol)

I said theyd win 10....he said theyd win 11. you cant get in the middle of that!

We just have very different views on how the team gets to that many wins.

 

[jared]

I said theyd win 10....he said theyd win 11. you cant get in the middle of that!

We just have very different views on how the team gets to that many wins.

Thats fair.

 

[LKP]

It won't be because of luck they win 10. It will be very earned. 10-11 wins is the most probable outcome given the talent they have.

 

[LKP]

And clearly hughes you are just hedging your bets with your wording. Saying they only have 7 win talent but then predicting 10 based on "luck". Be a man and pick 7-8 wins if that's how you feel their talent is.

You may have said 10 hughes, but you are still clearly wrong as to how they will do it. it won't be luck.

 

[jared]

It won't be because of luck they win 10. It will be very earned. 10-11 wins is the most probable outcome given the talent they have.

Ya...that's exactly what he was saying above. You guys don't agree.

 

[LKP]

Ya...that's exactly what he was saying above. You guys don't agree.

Hughes is clearly trying to hedge his bets. Saying 10 wins are luck but only 7 win talent. He's a moron. Be a man hughes. Predict 7-8 wins like you actually feel.

 

[tomdalton22]

It won't be because of luck they win 10. It will be very earned. 10-11 wins is the most probable outcome given the talent they have.

the most probable outcome is 8 or 9 wins. That is what Vegas thinks too as the O/U for wins is 8.5

 

[jared]

the most probable outcome is 8 or 9 wins. That is what Vegas thinks too as the O/U for wins is 8.5

Vegas. pfffft. They don't watch film.