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Fantasy vs. Reality
- Thread starter jared
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tomdalton22
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I have heard you say that before. I have not found one Vegas site that has the lines to every game. I asked you for a link before but you have not provided me with one.
Here is a link to 2014 NFL future bets
http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/football-team-props.jsp
I have provided it several times
http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2014/05/las_vegas_showing_detroit_lion.html
http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2014/05/las_vegas_showing_detroit_lion.html
tomdalton22
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those don't mean anything...it is just an article...not real betting. I mean really..Jags and Raiders are not favored in any games and their O/U is 5. Same with the Raiders.
tomdalton22
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but they aren't real lines...you can't bet on them. It is just a hypothetical. The o/u bets put out there are real. That is what Vegas really thinks about these teams...because they are putting their money on the line!
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- #30
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He could be Joe Montana..unless he gets us playoff wins I could careless if he throws 9000 yards ..
tomdalton22
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What great timing for a good article.
From ESPN
http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/paine-feature-2014lionsprojection.png?w=1228
Detroit Lions
Expected wins: 8.3
Playoff probability: 38 percent (25 percent to win the NFC North)
Super Bowl win probability: 3 percent
Last year the Detroit Lions finished 7-9, the second-highest win total of quarterback Matthew Stafford’s career. Despite throwing for 4,650 yards and 29 TDs, Stafford now faces headlines like this one from Fox Sports: “Stafford needs to bounce back in a big way.”
According to that article, Stafford “must cut down on his crucial mistakes when it’s make-or-break time.” Presumably, this refers to the six fourth-quarter interceptions Stafford threw in one-score games last year.
But, see above: Interceptions are hard to interpret. Stafford also had seven touchdowns under those circumstances, and four of his six interceptions were with his team trailing.12 So let’s break down Stafford’s interception rate a bit further:
With his team down 2+ scores, his interception rate is 2.5 percent. If anything, this may be too low.
With his team down one score or less, his interception rate is 2.8 percent. This is probably just about right.
With the game tied, his interception rate is 2.2 percent, which is below average.
With his team up 2+ scores, his interception rate is about 3 percent, which is a little high, but not necessarily a problem considering the sample size.
With his team up one score or less, his interception rate is pretty high: 3.8 percent overall and a whopping 6.7 percent in the second quarter.
In other words, if there’s one spot where Stafford has been making an unusually high number of mistakes it hasn’t been “make-or-break time,” it has been earlier in the game, when his team is up one or fewer scores and most QBs would play it safe (league average interception rate is around 2.3 percent under those circumstances).
morris-feature-nfcnorth-table-2Of course, while throwing interceptions with your team up one score isn’t generally wise, it could be worth it if it’s helping you gain a ton of touchdowns. Indeed, Stafford throws a good number of TDs in these situations.
While that 4.5 percent is good, it’s only 0.5 percentage points better than average — in other words, it’s not a very good trade-off considering his interception rate under these circumstances is 1.5 percentage points higher than average.
To generalize a bit, you can think of the sum of a player’s touchdown rate and interception rate as his “aggression level.” Stafford is a fairly aggressive quarterback overall, but his aggression level while ahead by one score or less in the second quarter is 10.4 percent, which is off the charts compared to the league average of 6.8 percent. This isn’t really the best time to get aggressive, and it isn’t really working for him.
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- Thread Author
- #34
Great find Tom.
I've never seen a breakdown of Stafford like that. I'm sure (I hope) the coaching staff uses these numbers to their benefit. He's always going to be a gunslinger, but you can also call some plays that play away from tendencies like this. Bottom line, he needs to get better. I think he can.
So Vegas will set the O/U at 8.5 on Lions wins. Hopefully we are over that, and go 11-5 or something.
I've never seen a breakdown of Stafford like that. I'm sure (I hope) the coaching staff uses these numbers to their benefit. He's always going to be a gunslinger, but you can also call some plays that play away from tendencies like this. Bottom line, he needs to get better. I think he can.
So Vegas will set the O/U at 8.5 on Lions wins. Hopefully we are over that, and go 11-5 or something.
Mlive is talking about Vegas. Game by game the Lions are favored in 10. It's a fact, not an opinion
And 7 of Staffords 19 picks were on the weapons. And some were due to circumstances Stafford should have never been in. 3rd and long due to drops in weather, having to have a comeback drive against the Ravens.
The turnovers will be reduced with new coaches and weapons and the Lions will easily win 10-11 games.
And 7 of Staffords 19 picks were on the weapons. And some were due to circumstances Stafford should have never been in. 3rd and long due to drops in weather, having to have a comeback drive against the Ravens.
The turnovers will be reduced with new coaches and weapons and the Lions will easily win 10-11 games.
I know more than all of you combined. Drink draino, real classy. You should be banned from this site for one year for that comment.
LKP, I'll explain this a bit slower for you. The M Live article that you cite came out in May. Lines move constantly. People were biting hard on the under, so Vegas appropriately moved the line down to 8.5. This is what Vegas does. They start out on the extreme ends, and see how the gamblers play.
So, Tom provided a link of the CURRENT betting lines, which are consensus among most betting sites at 8.5. That is what it is. It's cut and dry. You posting an M Live article 3 months ago when the lines are fresh is not representing what is accurate.
This is like when people thought the earth was flat, and were exposed. You continue to believe in the flat earth.
So, Tom provided a link of the CURRENT betting lines, which are consensus among most betting sites at 8.5. That is what it is. It's cut and dry. You posting an M Live article 3 months ago when the lines are fresh is not representing what is accurate.
This is like when people thought the earth was flat, and were exposed. You continue to believe in the flat earth.
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Right now game by game, it's still 10 games favored. Go look at each line one game at a time and you'll agree with me. It's a fact, not an opinion.
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