Fister Traded, now is retiring from baseball

[Rebbiv]

Breaking down Baseball America's top 100 Prospects list 45 of the players are pitchers. 9 of those 45 are LHP.

Andrew Heaney for Florida was the top ranked LHP prospect on the list at number 30 and is pitching well in the minors this season.

There just are not many LHP prospects in the world.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-expect-from-baseball-americas-top-100-prospects/

Again, I despise WAR, but the assumption is that most metrics should do the same correlations. The higher a player is ranked, the higher the chance he will succeed.

Do highly prospects fail? Of course. Do prospects that weren't listed succeed? Of course. But this are more the abnormalities than the norm.

 

[mhughes0021]

Ray is NOT a Top 100 Prospect and prior to this year, did not have awe inspiring stats. I am not choosing one over the other, you are to try and make your point.

Please do so where Fister isn't even a Top 45, let alone. I am curious what archaic metric or what sample size creates this notion. And FYI, I despise WAR, so I wouldn't even pretend to use such a stat. It is the most biased stat that "experts" fail to understand.

Last 3 years Away

Lobstein 3.33 xFIP 3.36 ERA .310 OPP OBP 1.26 WHIP 2.55 SO/BB 2.9 BB/G
Alvarez 3.33 xFIP 3.69 ERA .323 OPP OBP 1.28 WHIP 2.71 SO/BB 2.2 BB/G
VerHagen 3.85 xFIP 2.69 ERA .292 OPP OBP 1.10 WHIP 1.24 SO/BB 3.9 BB/G
Ray 3.86 xFIP 4.26 ERA .332 OPP OBP 1.33 WHIP 2.34 SO/BB 4.0 BB/G
Below 4.28 xFIP 3.61 ERA .315 OPP OBP 1.28 WHIP 2.08 SO/BB 3.1 BB/G


What other metric would you want a comparison. Oh, and Alvarez, Lobstein and Below are all lefties and probably do just as well as Krol in the LOOGY position if they aren't going to be used as starters.

The big question is who is the starting OF in 2016? And where are you going to get them?

We traded from a position of strength and we didn't fill a position of need. Plain and simple.

Its obvious (painfully to most of you) that DD didn't shop fister....that point I think we can all agree on and I can understand why people resent that fact but ill also say we don't know all the reasonings behind it. That being said....we don't know what corner OFers we could have got for fister....probably none that you guys would like lol. And ill go out on a limb and say none that would have had the start/impact davis has had this season. Again, there 2 subtle things I can point to that made me think differently than most about this trade. 1 was how much fister wanted to not be here....2 was the Nathan signing mere days after fisters salary was off the books. Yes, I agree fister had a price friendly deal for what hes worth....still doesn't negate the fact that we moved starter money into our bullpen since you guys have such a hard time calling it a salary dump. You guys complained about our bullpen since forever...I did too...so I cant complain when DD makes a move to try to make it better. Benoit in the 8th would probably look a lot better right now....if im questioning anything its why we didn't bring him back.....not why fister isn't on this roster.

 

[Rebbiv]

Its obvious (painfully to most of you) that DD didn't shop fister....that point I think we can all agree on and I can understand why people resent that fact but ill also say we don't know all the reasonings behind it. That being said....we don't know what corner OFers we could have got for fister....probably none that you guys would like lol. And ill go out on a limb and say none that would have had the start/impact davis has had this season. Again, there 2 subtle things I can point to that made me think differently than most about this trade. 1 was how much fister wanted to not be here....2 was the Nathan signing mere days after fisters salary was off the books. Yes, I agree fister had a price friendly deal for what hes worth....still doesn't negate the fact that we moved starter money into our bullpen since you guys have such a hard time calling it a salary dump. You guys complained about our bullpen since forever...I did too...so I cant complain when DD makes a move to try to make it better. Benoit in the 8th would probably look a lot better right now....if im questioning anything its why we didn't bring him back.....not why fister isn't on this roster.

Or why they didn't pick up Vera's option.

Signing Nathan was not contingent on trading Fister.

 

[tomdalton22]

Or why they didn't pick up Vera's option.

Signing Nathan was not contingent on trading Fister.

Veras would fit right in with the Tigers pen this year. 5.2 IP, 10 walks, 2.82 WHIP with a 15.88 ERA! OUCH!

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Ray is NOT a Top 100 Prospect and prior to this year, did not have awe inspiring stats. I am not choosing one over the other, you are to try and make your point.

Please do so where Fister isn't even a Top 45, let alone. I am curious what archaic metric or what sample size creates this notion. And FYI, I despise WAR, so I wouldn't even pretend to use such a stat. It is the most biased stat that "experts" fail to understand.

Last 3 years Away

Lobstein 3.33 xFIP 3.36 ERA .310 OPP OBP 1.26 WHIP 2.55 SO/BB 2.9 BB/G
Alvarez 3.33 xFIP 3.69 ERA .323 OPP OBP 1.28 WHIP 2.71 SO/BB 2.2 BB/G
VerHagen 3.85 xFIP 2.69 ERA .292 OPP OBP 1.10 WHIP 1.24 SO/BB 3.9 BB/G
Ray 3.86 xFIP 4.26 ERA .332 OPP OBP 1.33 WHIP 2.34 SO/BB 4.0 BB/G
Below 4.28 xFIP 3.61 ERA .315 OPP OBP 1.28 WHIP 2.08 SO/BB 3.1 BB/G


What other metric would you want a comparison. Oh, and Alvarez, Lobstein and Below are all lefties and probably do just as well as Krol in the LOOGY position if they aren't going to be used as starters.

The big question is who is the starting OF in 2016? And where are you going to get them?

We traded from a position of strength and we didn't fill a position of need. Plain and simple.

You have NO data to support Alvarez, Lobstein and Below doing "just as well as Krol" The horse I'm backing is on the roster and hence considered better than those guys by this organization and likely many others.

Ray's numbers are skewed by a terrible 2012 season. 2013 he figured it out and has progressed nicely since. Same has not been said for the guys you mention.

I'll agree with the starting OF in 2016. I think DD knew there was a good chance he couldn't lock-up Scherzer and wanted to address pitching. I still say there are more OF FA's each year than number 2-3 pitchers. I wanted Choo on this team in ways I can't describe. Him batting in front of Miguel would have been unfair.

HOW can you say a position of strength when we had NO ranked prospects in the system? You had a five-man rotation and that was all. Drum up all the stats you want, "Baseball" thinks higher of Ray than ANY minor league pitcher the Tigers had. If the reason this trade is bad is because the collective says it is, then we have to also accept that all of baseball thinks Ray is better than Alvarez et. al.

I like WAR as a stat. It is arbitrary to a degree but I think reflects a comparative metric from player to player and does a nice job summarizing volumes of specific data. To each their own of course. Now for the "archaic" stats on Fister from 2013...

Doug Fister 2013 Stats ALL MLB
ERA 3.67 (48th)
WHIP 1.31 (55th)
BABIP .315 (77th)
ERC 4.02 (64th) defense-independent component ERA

 

[Rebbiv]

Veras would fit right in with the Tigers pen this year. 5.2 IP, 10 walks, 2.82 WHIP with a 15.88 ERA! OUCH!

No telling if he would have those stats had he remained. None. In fact, I doubt anything can explain what he has done except for a hidden injury.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Or why they didn't pick up Vera's option.

Signing Nathan was not contingent on trading Fister.

I thought one of the best non-moves of the off-season was not picking up the option on Veras. I didn't see "bargain" anywhere on him after watching him pitch. Not at 3.25M. There are too many youngsters in the system with more promise and costing less money.

 

[tomdalton22]

No telling if he would have those stats had he remained. None. In fact, I doubt anything can explain what he has done except for a hidden injury.

I know...those numbers are terrible. 10 walks in 5.2 IP??? Maybe when you go to the Cubs you instantly become shitty!

 

[Rebbiv]

You have NO data to support Alvarez, Lobstein and Below doing "just as well as Krol" The horse I'm backing is on the roster and hence considered better than those guys by this organization and likely many others.

Ray's numbers are skewed by a terrible 2012 season. 2013 he figured it out and has progressed nicely since. Same has not been said for the guys you mention.

I'll agree with the starting OF in 2016. I think DD knew there was a good chance he couldn't lock-up Scherzer and wanted to address pitching. I still say there are more OF FA's each year than number 2-3 pitchers. I wanted Choo on this team in ways I can't describe. Him batting in front of Miguel would have been unfair.

HOW can you say a position of strength when we had NO ranked prospects in the system? You had a five-man rotation and that was all. Drum up all the stats you want, "Baseball" thinks higher of Ray than ANY minor league pitcher the Tigers had. If the reason this trade is bad is because the collective says it is, then we have to also accept that all of baseball thinks Ray is better than Alvarez et. al.

I like WAR as a stat. It is arbitrary to a degree but I think reflects a comparative metric from player to player and does a nice job summarizing volumes of specific data. To each their own of course. Now for the "archaic" stats on Fister from 2013...

Doug Fister 2013 Stats ALL MLB
ERA 3.67 (48th)
WHIP 1.31 (55th)
BABIP .315 (77th)
ERC 4.02 (64th) defense-independent component ERA

You're backing you argument on 1 year's worth of stats? What is the minimum number of innings? Are you allowing pitcher friendly park bias?

OK...let's use 1 year TOTAL data. There are 149 starters (about 5 per team) with at least 80 IP in 2013.

Fister
WAR (your stat) = 13
RAR = 13
xFIP = 15
WPA = 22
FIP = 24


Let's put this in a better sample rate and negate home park biases. Last 3 years away (154 qualify with 130 IP away).

Fister
BB% = 15
K/BB Ratio = 16
FIP = 21
xFIP = 22
Innings Pitched = 23
WHIP = 31
ERA = 38
wOBA = 38

 

[mhughes0021]

I didn't think veras was very good last year....

 

[Rebbiv]

I thought one of the best non-moves of the off-season was not picking up the option on Veras. I didn't see "bargain" anywhere on him after watching him pitch. Not at 3.25M. There are too many youngsters in the system with more promise and costing less money.

Hypocritical based on your backing of Krol.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Hypocritical based on your backing of Krol.

I KNEW you'd say that. I ALMOST amended my post but I wanted to see if you would deduce why they are different. You were true to Hoyle.

Veras is just another Right Handed pitcher in an organization with a few ready for his role (Mercedes and Knebel -my horse-).

Krol is a LEFT hander in an organization with nobody ready to fill his role. If Lobstein or others were the guy (I like Kyle and I liked Below but he walks too many) they would have supplanted Coke before Krol.

And Krol only costs 500k...

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

You're backing you argument on 1 year's worth of stats? What is the minimum number of innings? Are you allowing pitcher friendly park bias?

OK...let's use 1 year TOTAL data. There are 149 starters (about 5 per team) with at least 80 IP in 2013.

Fister
WAR (your stat) = 13
RAR = 13
xFIP = 15
WPA = 22
FIP = 24


Let's put this in a better sample rate and negate home park biases. Last 3 years away (154 qualify with 130 IP away).

Fister
BB% = 15
K/BB Ratio = 16
FIP = 21
xFIP = 22
Innings Pitched = 23
WHIP = 31
ERA = 38
wOBA = 38

Not to start trouble but I think you used AL only and not MLB. Fister's 4.1 WAR was 21st in MLB. 12th in the AL. LINK Not that it doesn't support your case (As I said it did from the start).

Qualifying pitchers was my minimum. I used last year because that's as far as I look on most players who are steady. It was a typical season for Doug. I knew you had stats you could find that would support your case (I said as much). You asked for mine. Don't be upset when I find them.

I like Doug Fister. What he did for Detroit was wonderful, especially for a guy we gave up so little to get. That said, he wasn't going to bring back two future all-stars in trade. Expecting such is a mistake.

 

[Rebbiv]

Not to start trouble but I think you used AL only and not MLB. Fister's 4.1 WAR was 21st in MLB. 12th in the AL. LINK Not that it doesn't support your case (As I said it did from the start).

Qualifying pitchers was my minimum. I used last year because that's as far as I look on most players who are steady. It was a typical season for Doug. I knew you had stats you could find that would support your case (I said as much). You asked for mine. Don't be upset when I find them.

I like Doug Fister. What he did for Detroit was wonderful, especially for a guy we gave up so little to get. That said, he wasn't going to bring back two future all-stars in trade. Expecting such is a mistake.

Nope...all of baseball. And someone actually still uses the Mothership for stats? LOL

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

 

[gotime909]

I love lamp

 

[tomdalton22]

Nope...all of baseball. And someone actually still uses the Mothership for stats? LOL

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

he used a site that helps his argument and you use one that helps yours. Baseball reference is more in line with ESPN's ranking. I guess it shows that WAR is not an easy stat to use.

 

[Rebbiv]

he used a site that helps his argument and you use one that helps yours. Baseball reference is more in line with ESPN's ranking. I guess it shows that WAR is not an easy stat to use.

First and foremost, WAR is not a rate stat. It is cumaltive. And yes, there is a difference how Baseball Reference and FanGraphs compute WAR. Anyone who truly understands WAR will tell you that it isn't a be all end all stat. It is a conversation starter, that is it.

But even WAR, is based on some other metric. In Fangraphs case, they base their WAR on FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching). Does it make it better? That is probably relative to the argument.

I provided a list of advanced metrics, of which predominately Fister was in the top 30 in all of baseball. Why is this concept so hard to grasp by some?

 

[Rebbiv]

Not to start trouble but I think you used AL only and not MLB. Fister's 4.1 WAR was 21st in MLB. 12th in the AL. LINK Not that it doesn't support your case (As I said it did from the start).

Qualifying pitchers was my minimum. I used last year because that's as far as I look on most players who are steady. It was a typical season for Doug. I knew you had stats you could find that would support your case (I said as much). You asked for mine. Don't be upset when I find them.

I like Doug Fister. What he did for Detroit was wonderful, especially for a guy we gave up so little to get. That said, he wasn't going to bring back two future all-stars in trade. Expecting such is a mistake.

Your ESPN qualifying minimum reduced the field to 81 total pitchers in 2013 for all 30 teams.

How about DIPS? Where Fister was 21st. Or 24th in Quality Start %?

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Your ESPN qualifying minimum reduced the field to 81 total pitchers in 2013 for all 30 teams.

How about DIPS? Where Fister was 21st. Or 24th in Quality Start %?

For sure. As I stated at the beginning, there are plenty of stats that substantiate your claim of him being in the top 30. There are also plenty of stats that put him closer to 50.

Call me old-fashioned but I place a premium on WHIP. Not a category he excels in which to me is what makes him a 3 instead of a 1 or 2. I'm not pretending that Fister is crap. I also don't think he was worth much more than DD got.

 

[spockmaster]

For sure. As I stated at the beginning, there are plenty of stats that substantiate your claim of him being in the top 30. There are also plenty of stats that put him closer to 50.

Call me old-fashioned but I place a premium on WHIP. Not a category he excels in which to me is what makes him a 3 instead of a 1 or 2. I'm not pretending that Fister is crap. I also don't think he was worth much more than DD got.

From 2011-2013 (when he was with the Tigers, 3 years of data), Fister's WHIP was 1.19, good for 30th in MLB, tied with Scherzer. Technically he should be higher than 30th, but fangraphs doesnt combine numbers in their lists for tied stats. If you take that into account, he's tied for 14th. How does that qualify as not excelling?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,a