Fister Traded, now is retiring from baseball

[SouthOfMackinac]

When the rest of the rotation would be as good as ours (Verlander, Sanchez, Porcello, Smyly), you really don't need more than a decent innings eater as the 5th starter (also, Brad Penny was FAR from decent, and therefore not a good comparison for what I would want.) The 5th starter will only be used out of the bullpen once you get to the playoffs, and you dont need a dominant 5th starter to make the playoffs either. If none of the SP guys we had worked out, theres always FA. 5th starter is something fairly easy to fill in the offseason if you do it right, it wasnt something we needed to trade Fister for.

The names you threw out to be that 5th starter aren't as good as the old Brad Penny option which is why I thought he was the perfect comparison. I was someone who liked the Brad Penny signing at the time. I'll admit...I was wrong...So so very wrong...

DD loves pitching. That is obvious. I also think pitching is the key. He no longer had a "next guy" the moment Smyly entered the rotation and Smyly had to enter the rotation to stay in budget. Reb seems convinced there was enough money for Nathan and Fister, I've read otherwise. I've read they could have gotten a "good enough" closer instead. Rodney? Balfour?

 

[spockmaster]

I'd have been fine with that, or even better, re-signing Benoit. "Elite" closers are overrated, the difference between them and normal closers is miniscule (maaaaybe one or two saves a year, if that.) DD has some sort of fetish for "proven closers", even though one isnt necessary.

Although I wouldn't have been ok with Balfour, I hate his guts. He's such an asshole. Send him back to Australia, but drop him in the middle of the bush.



I also was ok with the Penny signing at the time, I dont think anyone thought he'd suck quite that much. At any rate, I stand by what I said: 5th starters are easy to come by and we didnt need to trade Fister for the guy who is essentially going to be the 5th starter next year when we had bigger areas of need that he didnt even attempt to address.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

I'd have been fine with that, or even better, re-signing Benoit. "Elite" closers are overrated, the difference between them and normal closers is miniscule (maaaaybe one or two saves a year, if that.) DD has some sort of fetish for "proven closers", even though one isnt necessary.

Although I wouldn't have been ok with Balfour, I hate his guts. He's such an asshole. Send him back to Australia, but drop him in the middle of the bush.



I also was ok with the Penny signing at the time, I dont think anyone thought he'd suck quite that much. At any rate, I stand by what I said: 5th starters are easy to come by and we didnt need to trade Fister for the guy who is essentially going to be the 5th starter next year when we had bigger areas of need that he didnt even attempt to address.

I think Penny proves 5th starters aren't as easy to come by as we want them to. The beauty of the Tigers is they have matured their 5th starters into 3 and 4 starters as they have grown and their contracts have matured. Ray allows the hope for that trend to continue. I think it is a good philosophy.

I wanted Benoit also, sounded like that horse was dead the moment Ortiz hit his homer. The conversion rate since 1948 for teams leading going into the 9th inning is 95%, it has remained unchanged every decade regardless of "specialists"...Here is a good blog on it with good reference data. LINK

 

[tomdalton22]

I'd have been fine with that, or even better, re-signing Benoit. "Elite" closers are overrated, the difference between them and normal closers is miniscule (maaaaybe one or two saves a year, if that.) DD has some sort of fetish for "proven closers", even though one isnt necessary.

Although I wouldn't have been ok with Balfour, I hate his guts. He's such an asshole. Send him back to Australia, but drop him in the middle of the bush.



I also was ok with the Penny signing at the time, I dont think anyone thought he'd suck quite that much. At any rate, I stand by what I said: 5th starters are easy to come by and we didnt need to trade Fister for the guy who is essentially going to be the 5th starter next year when we had bigger areas of need that he didnt even attempt to address.

Benoit certainly shit the bed on the Ortiz grand slam last year. Maybe an established closer wouldn't have crumbled in the big moment of 2013???

 

[spockmaster]

5th starters dont always work out, but i'd feel much more comfortable with an unknown or below avg pitcher at 5th starter than an unknown or below avg player in RF, which is the position DD has put himself in for next year. RF is far more important than 5th starter, and the FA crop for OFs next offseason is shit and we have basically no trade chips left. On the other hand, the SP market is semi-decent, though I dunno who they'd even have tried to sign.

 

[spockmaster]

Benoit certainly shit the bed on the Ortiz grand slam last year. Maybe an established closer wouldn't have crumbled in the big moment of 2013???

I wish everyone would stop going on about the damn grand slam. He makes ONE bad pitch there after being overall great for us for 3 years and all of a sudden nobody wants him anymore, its ridiculous.

Besides, if Hunter makes the fucking catch, noone is complaining about it.

And if you think established closers always help in the playoffs, go look at Game 7 of the 2001 WS or the last 2 games of the 2004 ALCS when Super-Jesus-Closer himself Rivera blew the WS win for the Yanks and then 2 consecutive saves in one series. Closers are overrated, especially "proven" ones. Period.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Benoit certainly shit the bed on the Ortiz grand slam last year. Maybe an established closer wouldn't have crumbled in the big moment of 2013???

The entire bullpen had a hand in that catastrophe. I remember watching and laughing as Ortiz hit it. It felt like there was no other outcome when he stepped into the box. Robert Horry all over again...

 

[gotime909]

I'd have been fine with that, or even better, re-signing Benoit. "Elite" closers are overrated, the difference between them and normal closers is miniscule (maaaaybe one or two saves a year, if that.) DD has some sort of fetish for "proven closers", even though one isnt necessary.

Although I wouldn't have been ok with Balfour, I hate his guts. He's such an asshole. Send him back to Australia, but drop him in the middle of the bush.



I also was ok with the Penny signing at the time, I dont think anyone thought he'd suck quite that much. At any rate, I stand by what I said: 5th starters are easy to come by and we didnt need to trade Fister for the guy who is essentially going to be the 5th starter next year when we had bigger areas of need that he didnt even attempt to address.

Out of curiosity, where do you see our holes this year?

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

5th starters dont always work out, but i'd feel much more comfortable with an unknown or below avg pitcher at 5th starter than an unknown or below avg player in RF, which is the position DD has put himself in for next year. RF is far more important than 5th starter, and the FA crop for OFs next offseason is shit and we have basically no trade chips left. On the other hand, the SP market is semi-decent, though I dunno who they'd even have tried to sign.

Free agents 2015 LINK

We have some catchers which are always worth something. I remember someone wanting to fight me last season on the ESPN board because I wasn't perceived as thinking highly enough of Tyler Collins. Moya? Dirks? Put Dirks in right and let Rajai play in Left and find a guy to platoon with?

All the MORE reason why I thought Choo was a key target in Free Agency. It hurts as much as when we didn't go after Beltre. Cherry pick the superstars when you get the chance, especially at corner spots.

 

[tomdalton22]

I wish everyone would stop going on about the damn grand slam. He makes ONE bad pitch there after being overall great for us for 3 years and all of a sudden nobody wants him anymore, its ridiculous.

Besides, if Hunter makes the fucking catch, noone is complaining about it.

And if you think established closers always help in the playoffs, go look at Game 7 of the 2001 WS or the last 2 games of the 2004 ALCS when Super-Jesus-Closer himself Rivera blew the WS win for the Yanks and then 2 consecutive saves in one series. Closers are overrated, especially "proven" ones. Period.

we don't know what someone else would have done but we certainly know that Benoit grooved one to the only guy that he shouldn't have. The bull pen was a mess all year and it came back to bite them in the ass. Some people here have the opinion that this year's pen is fine as well despite their 5+ era...I still have my doubts.

 

[spockmaster]

Out of curiosity, where do you see our holes this year?

Bullpen for sure still, although the back end is getting a little better...Joba has certainly been much better than I thought he'd be.

The bench is atrocious, though I was at least happy they brought Martinez up, he's a random power threat that we needed off the bench that we havent really had since Thames.

The outfield defense has been really bad, but theres nothing we can do about it right now. Davis is going to be below average, AJax seems to be up or down depending on what metrics you look at, but Hunter has just fallen off a cliff defensively. He's a huge liability out there right now, but at least he's hitting to make up for it unlike some (*coughDelmon*cough *coughBoeschcough*) Dirks should help with that once he's back.

Im hesitant to believe in the offense still, I can see some regression happening (Davis, Hunter), but also some improvement (Miggy definitely.) I am liking the additional speed more than I thought I would, but a few players (Kinsler, Hunter, Castellanos) seem to be prone to TOOTBLANs which drag down the running game's effectiveness. Im also very worried about the team's overall low walk rate and somewhat concerned about the low-ish power numbers (23rd in BB rate at 7.4%, 12th in ISO at .145 and only 24 HR.) If we don't improve it, the low walk rate will come back to bite us badly when some players come down from BA/BABIP highs, like Davis. That was the risk in bringing in players who can run but who weren't known for being great at getting on base to use it.


Overall, the team is shaping out to be better than I thought and we definitely have a chance to win the WS this year, but it also could all go wrong, especially on offense.

 

[spockmaster]

Free agents 2015 LINK

We have some catchers which are always worth something. I remember someone wanting to fight me last season on the ESPN board because I wasn't perceived as thinking highly enough of Tyler Collins. Moya? Dirks? Put Dirks in right and let Rajai play in Left and find a guy to platoon with?

All the MORE reason why I thought Choo was a key target in Free Agency. It hurts as much as when we didn't go after Beltre. Cherry pick the superstars when you get the chance, especially at corner spots.

I was disappointed we didnt go after Choo harder too, though I'm not sure I'd have wanted him at the price he signed for, especially with the trouble he has against lefties.

As for Dirks, I remain convinced that he is not a full-time player, though he makes a very good 4th OF and probably platoon partner (which we can see when he comes back.) That leaves us with Dirks/Davis in LF next year and ??? in RF. Moya might help, but he also might not, and given that his OPS in Erie so far is only .654 I'm leaning towards not. He's only ever had one season in the minors with an OPS over .732, and he went right back down the year after.


We do have some catching prospects that likely wont make it up to the Tigers due to Avila, but who knows how much they might fetch. It depends on how other teams value them, and if we want to give them up.

 

[mhughes0021]

I am sorry, but ERA, ERC, BABIP and WHIP are all lame comparative stats and you lose all credibility in making your case by starting out with those particular stats, not eliminating home park bias and providing more than 1 year's worth of data.

There isn't anymore value to a lefthanded starter over a righthanded starter. None. And a LOOGY, if used probably, has minimal effect over the course of a season.

To some, the earth is still flat.

Im way out of touch on baseball advanced metrics stuff....so I don't really have a horse in this race other than the fact im pretty sure I can easily give you 30 names of pitchers from other teams id rather have than a Fister that has stories attached to him that he didn't want to be here anymore. That should be an automatic knock of 5 on your WHIP

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

I was disappointed we didnt go after Choo harder too, though I'm not sure I'd have wanted him at the price he signed for, especially with the trouble he has against lefties.

As for Dirks, I remain convinced that he is not a full-time player, though he makes a very good 4th OF and probably platoon partner (which we can see when he comes back.) That leaves us with Dirks/Davis in LF next year and ??? in RF. Moya might help, but he also might not, and given that his OPS in Erie so far is only .654 I'm leaning towards not. He's only ever had one season in the minors with an OPS over .732, and he went right back down the year after.


We do have some catching prospects that likely wont make it up to the Tigers due to Avila, but who knows how much they might fetch. It depends on how other teams value them, and if we want to give them up.

Let's not forget that 5th starters get 28-32 starts a season roughly. I do not want those starts going to Kyle Lobstein or Duane Below. It is like conceding 1/5th of the season to "Let's just hope we can score enough those days..." The comfort level others have saying "I don't care who the fifth starter is" is about the same way I feel about finding a RF'er between November and Next April.

If Lobstein and Below can be mentioned for an important role I think Moya and Collins can also. I don't think either is a good solution. I'm with you on Dirks completely. I like him as a player but he likely is a career platoon guy.

Nelson Cruz has to be the guy next year it seems...I hope I'm kidding...

 

[spockmaster]

But a RF will likely play 140+ games and makes a far bigger impact overall on the season than a 5th starter does in their ~30 starts, and is therefore much more important. I think we're at the point where we agree to disagree since we're both worried, but place different levels importance on the 2 areas, otherwise we're just gonna keep goin in circles.


We're fucked if Cruz is our only choice. He's gonna inflate his numbers playing in another bandbox this year, and I hope DD doesnt get fooled.

 

[Rebbiv]

Im way out of touch on baseball advanced metrics stuff....so I don't really have a horse in this race other than the fact im pretty sure I can easily give you 30 names of pitchers from other teams id rather have than a Fister that has stories attached to him that he didn't want to be here anymore. That should be an automatic knock of 5 on your WHIP

That's just it. There are stories, but where are the exact quotes? The word on the street, was that Fister wanted to sign with a West Coast team when his contract was up. That is it.

You can give me 30 pitchers from the last 3 years you would take over Fister?

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

But a RF will likely play 140+ games and makes a far bigger impact overall on the season than a 5th starter does in their ~30 starts, and is therefore much more important. I think we're at the point where we agree to disagree since we're both worried, but place different levels importance on the 2 areas, otherwise we're just gonna keep goin in circles.


We're fucked if Cruz is our only choice. He's gonna inflate his numbers playing in another bandbox this year, and I hope DD doesnt get fooled.

The fifth starter starts only three fewer games than the number one starter on average. I view each game as important during the season. My fifth starters games are as important as Verlander's. Torii Hunter was about as middle of the pack as it gets in RF last season and this season. I think if the 2013 team had a Lobstein or Alvarez pitching 32 games they wouldn't have made the playoffs.

Cruz or Aoki are the only two RF's on the FA list that intrigue me at all. Aoki is a poor man's Choo. Chris Denorfia?

 

[mhughes0021]

I was disappointed we didnt go after Choo harder too, though I'm not sure I'd have wanted him at the price he signed for, especially with the trouble he has against lefties.

As for Dirks, I remain convinced that he is not a full-time player, though he makes a very good 4th OF and probably platoon partner (which we can see when he comes back.) That leaves us with Dirks/Davis in LF next year and ??? in RF. Moya might help, but he also might not, and given that his OPS in Erie so far is only .654 I'm leaning towards not. He's only ever had one season in the minors with an OPS over .732, and he went right back down the year after.


We do have some catching prospects that likely wont make it up to the Tigers due to Avila, but who knows how much they might fetch. It depends on how other teams value them, and if we want to give them up.

For how much you guys are debating using advanced metrics....wasn't choo like one of the most overated/overpriced guys on the market based on the numbers?

 

[mhughes0021]

The fifth starter starts only three fewer games than the number one starter on average. I view each game as important during the season. My fifth starters games are as important as Verlander's. Torii Hunter was about as middle of the pack as it gets in RF last season and this season. I think if the 2013 team had a Lobstein or Alvarez pitching 32 games they wouldn't have made the playoffs.

Cruz or Aoki are the only two RF's on the FA list that intrigue me at all. Aoki is a poor man's Choo. Chris Denorfia?

but during the season doesn't matter much when our division sucks ass....so the need of that quality 4th/5th starter is lessened. Depth at SP means less if youre planning on using 3 horses once the playoffs come. Not to mention its painfully obvious we needed help in the bullpen. DD tried to address that...but probably didn't address it enough. That's the one area id expect to see movement at the trade deadline....although we don't have much to trade lol.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

For how much you guys are debating using advanced metrics....wasn't choo like one of the most overated/overpriced guys on the market based on the numbers?

I don't just go by advanced metrics. I blend those numbers with traditional numbers and what I see in a guy's approach. I think Choo in this lineup with Miguel becomes even more potent given his patience at the plate.

Some sources had him middle of the road some said he projects to payback on the contract if only barely. 20M was higher than most had forecast and I understand why the Tigers pulled out of the chase. Still...I do like Choo (who is 3rd in baseball with a wRC+ Runs per PA of 189 - Miggy had a 192 in 2013)