Fister Traded, now is retiring from baseball

[Rebbiv]

For sure. As I stated at the beginning, there are plenty of stats that substantiate your claim of him being in the top 30. There are also plenty of stats that put him closer to 50.

Call me old-fashioned but I place a premium on WHIP. Not a category he excels in which to me is what makes him a 3 instead of a 1 or 2. I'm not pretending that Fister is crap. I also don't think he was worth much more than DD got.

You are fixating on one lone stat and ignoring the other ones. Where are all the other stats what put him at 50? And it isn't just "my" claim he is a top 30 pitcher.

Is FIP or xFIP not a better quantitative stat for you?

How about the fact he is 6th in baseball for the lowest amount of HRs per flyballs. 17th in groundballs. 8th in BB/G.


But that one stat, one, that you are fixating on is the basis to ignore all other stats.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

You are fixating on one lone stat and ignoring the other ones. Where are all the other stats what put him at 50? And it isn't just "my" claim he is a top 30 pitcher.

Is FIP or xFIP not a better quantitative stat for you?

How about the fact he is 6th in baseball for the lowest amount of HRs per flyballs. 17th in groundballs. 8th in BB/G.


But that one stat, one, that you are fixating on is the basis to ignore all other stats.

I gave you four stats with WHIP as one of them, there are more but I wasn't going to spend the time to cherry-pick. ERA, BABIP, ERC...Not just one stat. You are difficult to debate with as you seem to selectively ignore what has been said.

You turned this one pitcher WHO HAS EXCELLED the previous three seasons (lest I be branded a Fister hater - a guy I LOVED the time he was here) into two LH pitchers for the team, two cheap and seemingly talented guys.

I'll bow out here. The case is made that Fister is awesome. Getting a left-handed starting pitching prospect (there are few) and a LH bullpen arm that was better than we had is a good trade in my book.

What ranking of player do you think they should have gotten in this trade to have made it fair? A number 67 pitching prospect and someone else? A number 30? Would you have been happier with a few position players? If Krol, Lombo and Ray weren't enough I wonder who would have been. The goal was to bolster the number of quality left-handers in the organization. I think DD did it as well as he could of (9 of the top 100 prospects are LH pitchers).

 

[spockmaster]

I thought I just showed that Fister's WHIP was top 15 the last 3 years.

 

[Rebbiv]

I gave you four stats with WHIP as one of them, there are more but I wasn't going to spend the time to cherry-pick. ERA, BABIP, ERC...Not just one stat. You are difficult to debate with as you seem to selectively ignore what has been said.

You turned this one pitcher WHO HAS EXCELLED the previous three seasons (lest I be branded a Fister hater - a guy I LOVED the time he was here) into two LH pitchers for the team, two cheap and seemingly talented guys.

I'll bow out here. The case is made that Fister is awesome. Getting a left-handed starting pitching prospect (there are few) and a LH bullpen arm that was better than we had is a good trade in my book.

What ranking of player do you think they should have gotten in this trade to have made it fair? A number 67 pitching prospect and someone else? A number 30? Would you have been happier with a few position players? If Krol, Lombo and Ray weren't enough I wonder who would have been. The goal was to bolster the number of quality left-handers in the organization. I think DD did it as well as he could of (9 of the top 100 prospects are LH pitchers).

I am sorry, but ERA, ERC, BABIP and WHIP are all lame comparative stats and you lose all credibility in making your case by starting out with those particular stats, not eliminating home park bias and providing more than 1 year's worth of data.

There isn't anymore value to a lefthanded starter over a righthanded starter. None. And a LOOGY, if used probably, has minimal effect over the course of a season.

To some, the earth is still flat.

 

[spockmaster]

I thought I just showed that Fister's WHIP was top 15 the last 3 years.

From 2011-2013 (when he was with the Tigers, 3 years of data), Fister's WHIP was 1.19, good for 30th in MLB, tied with Scherzer. Technically he should be higher than 30th, but fangraphs doesnt combine numbers in their lists for tied stats. If you take that into account, he's tied for 14th. How does that qualify as not excelling?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,a

Looks like I did. You might wanna pick another stat to show he's not top 30.

 

[Thumb]

I love lamp

Now Brick, do you really love lamp, or are you just saying that because I said I love Veronica?

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Looks like I did. You might wanna pick another stat to show he's not top 30.

I stopped disputing the claim of Fister not being top 30 two hours ago. You can't keep climbing a mountain once you reach the top. Well done, well played. So it comes down to creating the list of the top 30 pitchers and where you see Fister. Perhaps DD (and I) have been clouded by the number of quality pitchers Detroit has had and a guy like Fister begins to look "common" against the backdrop of Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez. Or with how little he gave up to get him he figured he could kick the can for free and was surprised how much everyone cared.

No question the stats support all of yours and others claims. So what would you have seen as fair value? An all-star caliber player? Two top 100 prospects?

 

[spockmaster]

I stopped disputing the claim of Fister not being top 30 two hours ago.

Not till after my initial post, and not specifically. I wasn't sure you'd seen it since it was at the bottom of the last page.

You can't keep climbing a mountain once you reach the top. Well done, well played. So it comes down to creating the list of the top 30 pitchers and where you see Fister. Perhaps DD (and I) have been clouded by the number of quality pitchers Detroit has had and a guy like Fister begins to look "common" against the backdrop of Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez. Or with how little he gave up to get him he figured he could kick the can for free and was surprised how much everyone cared.

No question the stats support all of yours and others claims. So what would you have seen as fair value? An all-star caliber player? Two top 100 prospects?

Personally, I'd have wanted at least a good positional prospect at a position of need, like OF. Like Reb said, SP is a position of relative strength of our system (we don't have any great ones, but at least we have some, and we would have only needed a 4th/5th starter when Fister left after next season) whereas we have basically no good OF prospects and 2 corner OF spots to fill soon (Hunter will be gone, Dirks/Davis arent a long-term answer). I dont know who, tbh, because I don't know who would have been available. However, as far as I remember, DD didnt look for any positional prospects; I think I remember him saying he had a list of pitching prospects, and that was it:

"We had a list of about 15 pitchers that we would consider in various deals. He was one of the 15."



We had no real reason to pursue ONLY a pitching prospect, especially given other needs of the team (of which another 4th/5th starter after Fister left was NOT one.) Bench and bullpen help would have been good throw ins, though not the types DD got (a Don Kelly clone and strict LOOGY, whereas we needed a bench bat and middle/back-end help.)

 

[tomdalton22]

Personally, I'd have wanted at least a good positional prospect at a position of need, like OF. Like Reb said, SP is a position of relative strength of our system (we don't have any great ones, but at least we have some) whereas we have basically no good OF prospects and 2 corner OF spots to fill soon (Hunter will be gone, Dirks/Davis arent a long-term answer). I dont know who, tbh, because I don't know who would have been available. However, as far as I remember, DD didnt look for any positional prospects; I think I remember him saying he had a list of pitching prospects, and that was it.

"We had a list of about 15 pitchers that we would consider in various deals. He was one of the 15."


We had no real reason to pursue ONLY a pitching prospect, especially given other needs of the team (of which another 4th/5th starter after Fister left was NOT one.)

I don't know what their plans are for replacing Hunter but maybe DD doesn't want to replace him with a prospect...maybe he plans on replacing him with a FA.

 

[spockmaster]

I don't know what their plans are for replacing Hunter but maybe DD doesn't want to replace him with a prospect...maybe he plans on replacing him with a FA.

If that was his plan, given what the crop for FA outfielders looks like next season, its a retarded plan.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

I am sorry, but ERA, ERC, BABIP and WHIP are all lame comparative stats and you lose all credibility in making your case by starting out with those particular stats, not eliminating home park bias and providing more than 1 year's worth of data.

There isn't anymore value to a lefthanded starter over a righthanded starter. None. And a LOOGY, if used probably, has minimal effect over the course of a season.

To some, the earth is still flat.

The number of runs a pitcher allows is not a meaningless stat to me, you disagree, noted. BABIP to me is a good stat that reflects how solid the opposition is making contact against a pitcher. Combined with WHIP I think it shows a trend. You vehemently disagree, also noted. Please post your list of approved sabremetrics that aren't lame.

Over the course of a season I'll agree there are 12-20 games where the LOOGY really matters. In the post-season it ratchets up significantly

"To some, the earth is still flat?" Is that an insult? I have no desire to be argumentative, and don't understand the need to stray from topic.

Fister is and has been a top 30 pitcher for the Tigers the last three years. That said, I sure do like the Fister trade for the Tigers! Go DD!!! Have a wonderful day.

 

[spockmaster]

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

BABIP can't really be used to accurately track how hard a pitcher get hits, its mostly a function of defense and luck. Remember last year when VMart had that period where he was scorching balls all over the place but they were seemingly always finding a glove? The pitchers facing him had low BABIPs (as did he), but since he was scorching the balls right at people, it showed the opposite trend for what you claim to use BABIP to track (ie, interpreting it the way you say you do would have shown he was making bad contact, when the opposite was largely true.) That stat just doesnt work the way you want it to, at least not outside small sample sizes.

 

[tomdalton22]

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

BABIP can't really be used to accurately track how hard a pitcher get hits, its mostly a function of defense and luck. Remember last year when VMart had that period where he was scorching balls all over the place but they were seemingly always finding a glove? The pitchers facing him had low BABIPs (as did he), but since he was scorching the balls right at people, it showed the opposite trend for what you claim to use BABIP to track (ie, interpreting it the way you say you do would have shown he was making bad contact, when the opposite was largely true.) That stat just doesnt work the way you want it to, at least not outside small sample sizes.

to me BABIP is the dumbest stat out there. How can you have a stat that ignores a HR?

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Not till after my initial post, and not specifically. I wasn't sure you'd seen it since it was at the bottom of the last page.



Personally, I'd have wanted at least a good positional prospect at a position of need, like OF. Like Reb said, SP is a position of relative strength of our system (we don't have any great ones, but at least we have some, and we would have only needed a 4th/5th starter when Fister left after next season) whereas we have basically no good OF prospects and 2 corner OF spots to fill soon (Hunter will be gone, Dirks/Davis arent a long-term answer). I dont know who, tbh, because I don't know who would have been available. However, as far as I remember, DD didnt look for any positional prospects; I think I remember him saying he had a list of pitching prospects, and that was it:

"We had a list of about 15 pitchers that we would consider in various deals. He was one of the 15."



We had no real reason to pursue ONLY a pitching prospect, especially given other needs of the team (of which another 4th/5th starter after Fister left was NOT one.) Bench and bullpen help would have been good throw ins, though not the types DD got (a Don Kelly clone and strict LOOGY, whereas we needed a bench bat and middle/back-end help.)

Well stated and thank you.

I'm not trying to be an ass, but if our pitching prospects were good would 22 year old - not top 100 - Robbie Ray instantly become the shining star of the system? Ruminate on that for a moment.

I loved Jamie Walker in 2006, I've wanted that left-hander on the team since him. We've missed that guy in the playoffs the last few years and I think Krol is him. I'm not always right and sometimes I work off of gut. Krol will be in some vital situations for the Tigers this year. Or maybe I'm just nostalgic for Bill Scherrer in '84...

Salary cap (self-imposed) is part of the trade also. I don't understand why, if I was Illitch I would say NO CAP OUTSPEND THE DODGERS!!! But it's not my money obviously.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

HR's aren't technically in play. It takes a few elements in to account. I look at it with WHIP and I find value in it. Dislike it all you want, it's a stat that is tracked and available as a metric. Not like I made one up and computed it myself.

Doug Fister might be one of the toughest luck pitchers in baseball. His run support over the years has been awful. BABIP obviously has luck as a component. Fister wasn't lucky in many starts as I recall (Seattle game last year comes to mind).

 

[spockmaster]

to me BABIP is the dumbest stat out there. How can you have a stat that ignores a HR?

Which is why it should only be used to see how lucky/unlucky a pitcher or hitter have been and/or how good a team's defense is behind the pitcher. Its also a good gauge for seeing when slumps/hot streaks will end, or of they're for real since BABIP will almost always regress to around .300. For instance, Davis will eventually come crashing down to earth because his .403 BABIP is unsustainable long-term, and is 83 points above his career .320 BABIP.

 

[jdeb]

Which is why it should only be used to see how lucky/unlucky a pitcher or hitter have been and/or how good a team's defense is behind the pitcher. Its also a good gauge for seeing when slumps/hot streaks will end, or of they're for real since BABIP will almost always regress to around .300. For instance, Davis will eventually come crashing down to earth because his .403 BABIP is unsustainable long-term, and is 83 points above his career .320 BABIP.

not to he is below average defensively

 

[spockmaster]

Well stated and thank you.

I'm not trying to be an ass, but if our pitching prospects were good would 22 year old - not top 100 - Robbie Ray instantly become the shining star of the system? Ruminate on that for a moment.

I loved Jamie Walker in 2006, I've wanted that left-hander on the team since him. We've missed that guy in the playoffs the last few years and I think Krol is him. I'm not always right and sometimes I work off of gut. Krol will be in some vital situations for the Tigers this year. Or maybe I'm just nostalgic for Bill Scherrer in '84...

Salary cap (self-imposed) is part of the trade also. I don't understand why, if I was Illitch I would say NO CAP OUTSPEND THE DODGERS!!! But it's not my money obviously.

I wasnt trying to imply that our SP prospects were all that good, or that Ray isnt good (theyre not, and he is), but they are neither terrible nor is he great. We also would only need a 5th starter next year, as once Max leaves (which he will), everyone else moves up a slot. We dont need a completely dominant rotation (having once is nice, but rare), all we needed was a 5th starter who can eat innings and pitch decently (which are easy to find, and which Alvarez, Lobstein, or a low level FA signing would have sufficed for), whereas we have much more pressing needs elsewhere that should have been addressed by trading Fister rather than only looking for pitching prospects.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

I wasnt trying to imply that our SP prospects were all that good, or that Ray isnt good (theyre not, and he is), but they are neither terrible nor is he great. We also would only need a 5th starter next year, as once Max leaves (which he will), everyone else moves up a slot. We dont need a completely dominant rotation (having once is nice, but rare), all we needed was a 5th starter who can eat innings and pitch decently (which are easy to find, and which Alvarez, Lobstein, or a low level FA signing would have sufficed for), whereas we have much more pressing needs elsewhere that should have been addressed by trading Fister rather than only looking for pitching prospects.

The Tigers were REMARKABLY fortunate last season that no starters went down for an extended period of time. The need for a guy to be more than Brad Penny exists when you want a championship. Smyly NEEDED in the rotation. I'm not in the camp that I would have wanted to fill 10-15 starts this season with any of the guys you mentioned. In six starts Alvarez had one quality start last season. VerHagen is struggling in Toledo this season. Below has 21 BBs in 31 IP. Alvarez was traded for that Nomar clone Romine. Jose is having a rough start in Salt Lake LINK

I think this roster looked pretty good going into the season. Concern for next year's outfield? I agree. I had concern for the rotation because Max has been on my mind since July of last year.

 

[spockmaster]

The Tigers were REMARKABLY fortunate last season that no starters went down for an extended period of time. The need for a guy to be more than Brad Penny exists when you want a championship. Smyly NEEDED in the rotation. I'm not in the camp that I would have wanted to fill 10-15 starts this season with any of the guys you mentioned. In six starts Alvarez had one quality start last season. VerHagen is struggling in Toledo this season. Below has 21 BBs in 31 IP. Alvarez was traded for that Nomar clone Romine. Jose is having a rough start in Salt Lake LINK

I think this roster looked pretty good going into the season. Concern for next year's outfield? I agree. I had concern for the rotation because Max has been on my mind since July of last year.

When the rest of the rotation would be as good as ours (Verlander, Sanchez, Porcello, Smyly), you really don't need more than a decent innings eater as the 5th starter (also, Brad Penny was FAR from decent, and therefore not a good comparison for what I would want.) The 5th starter will only be used out of the bullpen once you get to the playoffs, and you dont need a dominant 5th starter to make the playoffs either. If none of the SP guys we had worked out, theres always FA. 5th starter is something fairly easy to fill in the offseason if you do it right, it wasnt something we needed to trade Fister for.

Of course, whether DD would actually do it right is quite another matter, given that he's the one who thought Penny would be decent in the first place...