Fister Traded, now is retiring from baseball

[SouthOfMackinac]

but during the season doesn't matter much when our division sucks ass....so the need of that quality 4th/5th starter is lessened. Depth at SP means less if youre planning on using 3 horses once the playoffs come. Not to mention its painfully obvious we needed help in the bullpen. DD tried to address that...but probably didn't address it enough. That's the one area id expect to see movement at the trade deadline....although we don't have much to trade lol.

You have to make the playoffs. Having five solid starters makes it a moot point. Start using Alvarez every fifth day and your collar will feel a little tighter in August...

Corey Knebel...yep, all my eggs are in that basket. BP is a problem around MLB - everyone wants to say one guy is as good as the next but it doesn't appear to be true. I think they have the pieces once they clear out Coke. Who in the BP (besides Coke) makes you say "NO! NOT HIM!" ?

 

[mhughes0021]

Corey Knebel...yep, all my eggs are in that basket. BP is a problem around MLB - everyone wants to say one guy is as good as the next but it doesn't appear to be true. I think they have the pieces once they clear out Coke. Who in the BP (besides Coke) makes you say "NO! NOT HIM!" ?

Compare Texas' BP in the post season a couple years ago to ours then ask yourself if "one guy is as good as the next?" If they had the lead in the 5th inning the game was basically over lol.

QS obviously mean a lot...but as far as the playoffs go....If one of our starters gets shelled youre probably putting Ricky/Smyly in long relief anyways. To answer your question year to date....I pretty much am saying "NO! NOT HIM!, everytime a starter is getting pulled lol.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Compare Texas' BP in the post season a couple years ago to ours then ask yourself if "one guy is as good as the next?" If they had the lead in the 5th inning the game was basically over lol.

QS obviously mean a lot...but as far as the playoffs go....If one of our starters gets shelled youre probably putting Ricky/Smyly in long relief anyways. To answer your question year to date....I pretty much am saying "NO! NOT HIM!, everytime a starter is getting pulled lol.

I like Joba, Al Al is winning me back and I think Nathan is who we thought he was again. Of course, I have a shrine built for Ian Krol so as long he faces no more than one right hander in an inning I feel good. Lupu is coming back and he scares me. Evan Reed is hard to embrace for some reason...

 

[Rebbiv]

Let's not forget that 5th starters get 28-32 starts a season roughly. I do not want those starts going to Kyle Lobstein or Duane Below. It is like conceding 1/5th of the season to "Let's just hope we can score enough those days..." The comfort level others have saying "I don't care who the fifth starter is" is about the same way I feel about finding a RF'er between November and Next April.

If Lobstein and Below can be mentioned for an important role I think Moya and Collins can also. I don't think either is a good solution. I'm with you on Dirks completely. I like him as a player but he likely is a career platoon guy.

Nelson Cruz has to be the guy next year it seems...I hope I'm kidding...

30 teams x 5 starters = 121-150 is #5 starters

121-150 Games Started per season MLB

2013 = 15-20
2012 = 16-20
2011 = 14-22
2010 = 16-20
2009 = 14-19

The problem with saying #5 starter is that many teams never have more than 3 starters with at least 28 games started, let alone 25.

2013 Average # of staters per team with

31 GS = 1.7
28 GS = 2.5
25 GS = 3.0
19 GS = 4.2

DET was the only team with 5 starters with at least 28 Games Started in 2013. There were only 3 teams (CIN, OAK, WSN) with 4 starters with at least 28 games started or more. That means 25 MLB did not have more than 3 starters with 28 games started or more. And these ratios can be repeated in other years. 2013 wasn't an anomaly.

BLUF....for most teams, a #5 starter is getting only 15-20 starts, due to ineffectiveness or injury.

Starters with at least 5 GS per year

2013 = 233 / 7.8 per team
2012 = 231 / 7.7 per team
2011 = 216 / 7.2 per team
2010 = 216 / 7.2 per team
2009 = 243 / 8.1 per team

Starter with at least 15 GS per year

2013 = 150 / 5.0 per team
2012 = 160 / 5.3 per team
2011 = 148 / 4.9 per team
2010 = 154 / 5.1 per team
2009 = 148 / 4.9 per team

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

a bunch of great numbers that you can see above

Great breakdown, I love how you post them so quickly. I looked at the Tigers and a random sampling of teams to arrive at 28-32 for the fifth starter.

The disconnect is that regardless the pitcher in that fifth game it is not one of the top four guys in the rotation. Those games represent just under 1/5th of the season. Not having a solid plan for them is planning to fail.

Do we give DD credit for finding such durable pitchers or do we call it luck? Serious question. I think his selection criteria has an impact. Your thoughts?

 

[Rebbiv]

Great breakdown, I love how you post them so quickly. I looked at the Tigers and a random sampling of teams to arrive at 28-32 for the fifth starter.

The disconnect is that regardless the pitcher in that fifth game it is not one of the top four guys in the rotation. Those games represent just under 1/5th of the season. Not having a solid plan for them is planning to fail.

Do we give DD credit for finding such durable pitchers or do we call it luck? Serious question. I think his selection criteria has an impact. Your thoughts?

All teams experience injuries, but DET has been either good or lucky with starter health over the last 3-5 years, and that is just the top 3-4. It was only last year that they had 5 starters with at least 29 Games Started.

 

[mjsb2]

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

BABIP can't really be used to accurately track how hard a pitcher get hits, its mostly a function of defense and luck. Remember last year when VMart had that period where he was scorching balls all over the place but they were seemingly always finding a glove? The pitchers facing him had low BABIPs (as did he), but since he was scorching the balls right at people, it showed the opposite trend for what you claim to use BABIP to track (ie, interpreting it the way you say you do would have shown he was making bad contact, when the opposite was largely true.) That stat just doesnt work the way you want it to, at least not outside small sample sizes.

Really, looking at raw BABIP is entirely pointless.

You need to look at the BABIP for each individual type of hit, LD, GB, FB, and look at that.

Also of note, when Pedro Martinez had the most dominant pitching season ever in 1999, striking out 13.2/9, he had a .323 BABIP.

For some reason, I doubt that hitters were making very good contact against him that year.

 

[mjsb2]

I was disappointed we didnt go after Choo harder too, though I'm not sure I'd have wanted him at the price he signed for, especially with the trouble he has against lefties.

As for Dirks, I remain convinced that he is not a full-time player, though he makes a very good 4th OF and probably platoon partner (which we can see when he comes back.) That leaves us with Dirks/Davis in LF next year and ??? in RF. Moya might help, but he also might not, and given that his OPS in Erie so far is only .654 I'm leaning towards not. He's only ever had one season in the minors with an OPS over .732, and he went right back down the year after.


We do have some catching prospects that likely wont make it up to the Tigers due to Avila, but who knows how much they might fetch. It depends on how other teams value them, and if we want to give them up.

Moya will never be a positive contributor to a big league club.

McCann is really our only catching prospect, and he won't fetch much, as future backup catchers are a dime a dozen.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Really, looking at raw BABIP is entirely pointless.

You need to look at the BABIP for each individual type of hit, LD, GB, FB, and look at that.

Also of note, when Pedro Martinez had the most dominant pitching season ever in 1999, striking out 13.2/9, he had a .323 BABIP.

For some reason, I doubt that hitters were making very good contact against him that year.

For sure using it without a reference is useless. I LOVE the Pedro Martinez numbers that is a great find and a great stat.

I did say I like to look at in combination with WHIP - Pedro's WHIP in '99 was 0.92. Just for fun Pedro had a .74 WHIP with a .236 BABIP in 2000.

Fangraphs does have them next to one another (AVG, WHIP and BABIP). Perhaps that's why I like to look at both. I am sorta lazy.

 

[lonesometiger]

So far Oakland's saying um um .

 

[tigermud]

Fister lit up like an Xmas tree in Oakland..dumbrowski knew...

 

[mjsb2]

For sure using it without a reference is useless. I LOVE the Pedro Martinez numbers that is a great find and a great stat.

I did say I like to look at in combination with WHIP - Pedro's WHIP in '99 was 0.92. Just for fun Pedro had a .74 WHIP with a .236 BABIP in 2000.

Fangraphs does have them next to one another (AVG, WHIP and BABIP). Perhaps that's why I like to look at both. I am sorta lazy.

Well, most people who use BABIP do so without reference.

 

[Thumb]

Fister lit up like an Xmas tree in Oakland..dumbrowski knew...

Even if he did, which is highly unlikely/unethical....he was the only one who did, and still could/should have gotten more in return.

 

[gotime909]

Even if he did, which is highly unlikely/unethical....he was the only one who did, and still could/should have gotten more in return.

How do you know he could have gotten more?

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Well, most people who use BABIP do so without reference.

I took enough crap for using it at all. I think the Pedro stats illustrate it well. He struck out 307 that season and only walked 37. If you managed to hit the ball that season off him you likely got a hit.

Again, thank you for the stat.

 

[Rebbiv]

I took enough crap for using it at all. I think the Pedro stats illustrate it well. He struck out 307 that season and only walked 37. If you managed to hit the ball that season off him you likely got a hit.

Again, thank you for the stat.

Career Away

Albert Pujols .317 BAVG .300 BABIP (- .017) 9.59 PA/SO

Victor Martinez .302 BAVG .313 BABIP (+ .011) 8.62 PA/SO

Placido Polanco .287 BAVG .301 BABIP (+ .014) 12.91 PA/SO

1984 AL AVG Away .259 BAVG .281 BABIP (+ .022) 7.33 PA/SO

Joe Mauer .320 BAVG .347 BABIP (+ .027) 8.50 PA/SO

1999 AL AVG Away .272 BAVG .299 BABIP (+ 0.27) 6.25 PA/SO

Miguel Cabrera .313 BAVG .342 BABIP (+ .029) 9.26 PA/SO

Reggie Jackson .268 BAVG .305 BABIP (+ .037) 4.55 PA/SO

2013 AL AVG Away .253 BAVG .296 BABIP (+ .043) 4.93 PA/SO

Brandon Inge .221 BAVG .275 BABIP (+ .054) 4.08 PA/SO

Rob Deer .222 BAVG .282 BABIP (+ .060) 3.16 PA/SO

Chris Davis .251 BAVG .324 BABIP (+ .073) 3.20 PA/SO

Austin Jackson .268 BAVG .350 BABIP (+ .082) 3.90 PA/SO


Pitchers Career Away

Joe Niekro .256 OPP BAVG .272 BABIP (+ .016) 8.59 PA/SO

Mark Buehrle .275 OPP BAVG .294 BABIP (+ .019) 7.69 PA/SO

Kenny Rogers .273 OPP BAVG .295 BABIP (+ .022) 7.29 PA/SO

Jack Morris .247 OPP BAVG .276 BABIP (+ .029) 6.30 PA/SO

Justin Verlander .242 OPP BAVG .300 BABIP (+ .058) 4.34 PA/SO

Nolan Ryan .219 OPP BAVG .283 BABIP (+ .064) 4.21 PA/SO

Pedro Martinez .217 OPP BAVG .282 BABIP (+ .065) 3.64 PA/SO

Max Scherzer .242 OPP BAVG .309 BABIP (+ .067) 3.83 PA/SO

 

[stonecold2136]

You have NO data to support Alvarez, Lobstein and Below doing "just as well as Krol" The horse I'm backing is on the roster and hence considered better than those guys by this organization and likely many others.

Ray's numbers are skewed by a terrible 2012 season. 2013 he figured it out and has progressed nicely since. Same has not been said for the guys you mention.

I'll agree with the starting OF in 2016. I think DD knew there was a good chance he couldn't lock-up Scherzer and wanted to address pitching. I still say there are more OF FA's each year than number 2-3 pitchers. I wanted Choo on this team in ways I can't describe. Him batting in front of Miguel would have been unfair.

HOW can you say a position of strength when we had NO ranked prospects in the system? You had a five-man rotation and that was all. Drum up all the stats you want, "Baseball" thinks higher of Ray than ANY minor league pitcher the Tigers had. If the reason this trade is bad is because the collective says it is, then we have to also accept that all of baseball thinks Ray is better than Alvarez et. al.

I like WAR as a stat. It is arbitrary to a degree but I think reflects a comparative metric from player to player and does a nice job summarizing volumes of specific data. To each their own of course. Now for the "archaic" stats on Fister from 2013...

Doug Fister 2013 Stats ALL MLB
ERA 3.67 (48th)
WHIP 1.31 (55th)
BABIP .315 (77th)
ERC 4.02 (64th) defense-independent component ERA

Alvarez could not even make the Angels poor rotation. He was terrible last year here in Detroit

 

[stonecold2136]

Robby Ray stats 2 GS 11.1 IP 0.97 WHIP 0.79 ERA.

DD pulls off another excellent trade.

Fister looks terrible this year. Looks like a player in decline. Nice to unload his big contract cause it would have hurt the team this year.

Fister's 2013 High WHIP was nothing to ignore

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Robby Ray stats 2 GS 11.1 IP 0.97 WHIP 0.79 ERA.

DD pulls off another excellent trade.

Fister looks terrible this year. Looks like a player in decline. Nice to unload his big contract cause it would have hurt the team this year.

Fister's 2013 High WHIP was nothing to ignore

You just pulled the pin on a grenade with that post...

 

[stonecold2136]

You just pulled the pin on a grenade with that post...

The pin was pulled long ago.

Results are results

Bottom line anyone who thinks Fister was traded for 2 LOOGY'S is wrong

Looks like Dumbrowski is so dumb after all.

So what Lombardozzi was traded for an over the hill shortstop, he was just a throw in anyway.

No one trades LH pitching prospects anymore. To get 2 LHP's that are helping the team in 2014 is incredible.