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Jose Reyes: 5 Reasons Why Signing the Star Shortstop Is a Bad Idea
By Scott Barzilla
1. You Got to Stay on Field
Reyes seems to get more banged up than most players.
It's easy to make excuses for someone that gets banged up. This isn't a judgment on Reyes' toughness or his conditioning. Some players just get hurt easier than others. The Mets just got out of Carlos Beltran's contract, and his injuries mitigated the success of his tenure in New York.
The thing is that Beltran didn't have any significant injury concerns before signing with the Mets. Sometimes, you can't foresee injury problems. Any team signing Reyes has to come in with eyes wide open. He likely is seeking a five-year deal, so let's take a look at the last five seasons.
Games/PA
2007: 160/765
2008: 159/763
2009: 36/166
2010: 133/603
2011: 126/586
Jose Reyes hasn't played a whole season since the Bush administration. The last two years haven't been horrible health wise, but when you are paying someone 20 million dollars a season, you hope they will find the field more often than 133 and 126 times. He missed nearly all of the 2009 season. While we can excuse one season in five, you have to be worried about a player that seems to miss a lot of time.
2.Speed Dies Early
Reyes has the speed to create offense, but how long will it last?
When looking at baseball history, we see numerous cases of players losing a step in their early thirties. For most players, this isn't a big deal, but for a player that builds their game around speed it can be deadly.
In the 1980s, numerous players were speed players. We all remember Vince Coleman from the Cardinals and Mets. When he turned 29 (Reyes will be 29 next season), he became a marginal player. Granted, Reyes is a better hitter than Coleman was, but speed is so integral in his game.
A better comparison may be Juan Pierre of the White Sox. In his five best seasons, he played every game and had 10.2 offensive WAR. In the four seasons since, he has 1.4 offensive WAR. He has been more valuable defensively since moving to left field, but left field is a premium offensive position.
Reyes has 22.9 offensive WAR in his last five full seasons (excluding 2009), so again, he is better than Juan Pierre even when Pierre was at his best. That's not the point. The point is that Pierre's value has significantly diminished since he lost a step. Even if Reyes is half the player in the next five years, he will be vastly overvalued.
3. WAR to the Shortstops
Troy Tulowitzki is the gold standard all shortstops are measured by
Jack Dempsey/Getty Images
I love to go back and look at multiple seasons to get the value of a player, but let's be honest. Any team signing Reyes will be looking at this past season primarily. So, to be fair to that standard, we will look at the past season in terms of WAR (wins above replacement) in addition to the past five years. WAR measures everything a player does. It includes hitting, fielding and base running.
WAR/4 Year
Troy Tulowitzki: 5.8/19.0
Jose Reyes: 5.8/14.0
Jimmy Rollins: 3.7/10.2
Hanley Ramirez: 1.3/20.5
Jhonny Peralta: 4.4/12.0
Asdrubal Cabrera: 3.7/11.0
Alexei Ramirez: 3.3/10.7
Derek Jeter: 0.7/11.2
Marco Scutaro: 1.4/13.5
Yunel Escobar: 4.1/14.5
The first question is obviously why I selected four years. Well, nearly half of these shortstops have only been regulars for four seasons. Jose Reyes was the best shortstop this year (tied with Tulowitzki), but does he really deserve to be the highest paid shortstop? Even if you ignore Escobar, he is still legitimately below Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez. No thanks.
4. Follow the Batted Ball
Jose Reyes enjoyed a .353 BABIP this season.
If you have read my articles here and elsewhere, you probably are growing tired of batting average on balls in play (BABIP). It really is important and it really is a good predictor of future performance. Reyes' .353 BABIP this season was the highest of his career by a significant margin. His highest career mark in a full season other than this year was .320 in 2006.
Let's assume he equals that mark next season. His current average would drop from .337 to .304. That's a good average indeed, but it is not a special batting average. For a player that lives and breathes on batting average (he has a career seven percent walk rate), that spells trouble. His .314 career BABIP is very good and about 15 points above the league average.
Go ahead and refer back to the second slide. Reyes' higher average is almost certainly tied to his ability to beat out more infield hits than the average player. Well, what happens to that BABIP when he loses a step?
5. Fielding Matters
Reyes is a below average defensive shortstop.
Jose Reyes certainly isn't a butcher, but he isn't as good a fielder as you would think. You look at Reyes and his speed and you would assume he is a plus defensive shortstop. The problem is that the numbers don't bear that out. His 2011 numbers are underwhelming.
Fielding Bible +/-: -13
Fielding Bible Runs: -11
UZR/150: -3.6
Defensive WAR: -0.4
Okay, if it is unfair to base a contract of his brilliant offensive numbers from the season, then it is unfair to deprive him of one because of a poor fielding season. So, let's take a look at the last five years according to defensive WAR and UZR/150.
DWAR/UZR/150
2007: 1.5/11.6
2008: 0.2/1.8
2009: -0.1/-4.7
2010: -0.3/-5.7
2011: -0.4/-3.6
If I were signing the 2007 Jose Reyes, I would be dancing in the streets. The 2011 Reyes really doesn't excite me as much. Maybe I'm a bit old-fashioned, but if I'm going to pay you star money, I would expect you to be at least solid in all of the facets of the game. Reyes is good on the base paths and at the plate, but with the glove, is decidedly not solid.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/87999....ad-idea/page/ 2
By Scott Barzilla
1. You Got to Stay on Field
Reyes seems to get more banged up than most players.
It's easy to make excuses for someone that gets banged up. This isn't a judgment on Reyes' toughness or his conditioning. Some players just get hurt easier than others. The Mets just got out of Carlos Beltran's contract, and his injuries mitigated the success of his tenure in New York.
The thing is that Beltran didn't have any significant injury concerns before signing with the Mets. Sometimes, you can't foresee injury problems. Any team signing Reyes has to come in with eyes wide open. He likely is seeking a five-year deal, so let's take a look at the last five seasons.
Games/PA
2007: 160/765
2008: 159/763
2009: 36/166
2010: 133/603
2011: 126/586
Jose Reyes hasn't played a whole season since the Bush administration. The last two years haven't been horrible health wise, but when you are paying someone 20 million dollars a season, you hope they will find the field more often than 133 and 126 times. He missed nearly all of the 2009 season. While we can excuse one season in five, you have to be worried about a player that seems to miss a lot of time.
2.Speed Dies Early
Reyes has the speed to create offense, but how long will it last?
When looking at baseball history, we see numerous cases of players losing a step in their early thirties. For most players, this isn't a big deal, but for a player that builds their game around speed it can be deadly.
In the 1980s, numerous players were speed players. We all remember Vince Coleman from the Cardinals and Mets. When he turned 29 (Reyes will be 29 next season), he became a marginal player. Granted, Reyes is a better hitter than Coleman was, but speed is so integral in his game.
A better comparison may be Juan Pierre of the White Sox. In his five best seasons, he played every game and had 10.2 offensive WAR. In the four seasons since, he has 1.4 offensive WAR. He has been more valuable defensively since moving to left field, but left field is a premium offensive position.
Reyes has 22.9 offensive WAR in his last five full seasons (excluding 2009), so again, he is better than Juan Pierre even when Pierre was at his best. That's not the point. The point is that Pierre's value has significantly diminished since he lost a step. Even if Reyes is half the player in the next five years, he will be vastly overvalued.
3. WAR to the Shortstops
Troy Tulowitzki is the gold standard all shortstops are measured by
Jack Dempsey/Getty Images
I love to go back and look at multiple seasons to get the value of a player, but let's be honest. Any team signing Reyes will be looking at this past season primarily. So, to be fair to that standard, we will look at the past season in terms of WAR (wins above replacement) in addition to the past five years. WAR measures everything a player does. It includes hitting, fielding and base running.
WAR/4 Year
Troy Tulowitzki: 5.8/19.0
Jose Reyes: 5.8/14.0
Jimmy Rollins: 3.7/10.2
Hanley Ramirez: 1.3/20.5
Jhonny Peralta: 4.4/12.0
Asdrubal Cabrera: 3.7/11.0
Alexei Ramirez: 3.3/10.7
Derek Jeter: 0.7/11.2
Marco Scutaro: 1.4/13.5
Yunel Escobar: 4.1/14.5
The first question is obviously why I selected four years. Well, nearly half of these shortstops have only been regulars for four seasons. Jose Reyes was the best shortstop this year (tied with Tulowitzki), but does he really deserve to be the highest paid shortstop? Even if you ignore Escobar, he is still legitimately below Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez. No thanks.
4. Follow the Batted Ball
Jose Reyes enjoyed a .353 BABIP this season.
If you have read my articles here and elsewhere, you probably are growing tired of batting average on balls in play (BABIP). It really is important and it really is a good predictor of future performance. Reyes' .353 BABIP this season was the highest of his career by a significant margin. His highest career mark in a full season other than this year was .320 in 2006.
Let's assume he equals that mark next season. His current average would drop from .337 to .304. That's a good average indeed, but it is not a special batting average. For a player that lives and breathes on batting average (he has a career seven percent walk rate), that spells trouble. His .314 career BABIP is very good and about 15 points above the league average.
Go ahead and refer back to the second slide. Reyes' higher average is almost certainly tied to his ability to beat out more infield hits than the average player. Well, what happens to that BABIP when he loses a step?
5. Fielding Matters
Reyes is a below average defensive shortstop.
Jose Reyes certainly isn't a butcher, but he isn't as good a fielder as you would think. You look at Reyes and his speed and you would assume he is a plus defensive shortstop. The problem is that the numbers don't bear that out. His 2011 numbers are underwhelming.
Fielding Bible +/-: -13
Fielding Bible Runs: -11
UZR/150: -3.6
Defensive WAR: -0.4
Okay, if it is unfair to base a contract of his brilliant offensive numbers from the season, then it is unfair to deprive him of one because of a poor fielding season. So, let's take a look at the last five years according to defensive WAR and UZR/150.
DWAR/UZR/150
2007: 1.5/11.6
2008: 0.2/1.8
2009: -0.1/-4.7
2010: -0.3/-5.7
2011: -0.4/-3.6
If I were signing the 2007 Jose Reyes, I would be dancing in the streets. The 2011 Reyes really doesn't excite me as much. Maybe I'm a bit old-fashioned, but if I'm going to pay you star money, I would expect you to be at least solid in all of the facets of the game. Reyes is good on the base paths and at the plate, but with the glove, is decidedly not solid.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/87999....ad-idea/page/ 2
