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How the Mueller Investigation Could Play Out for Trump

Spartanmack said:
According to liberal civil rights and constitutional expert, Allan Dershowitz, at best the violation of campaign finance law they have Trump on is roughly the equivalent of jaywalking. There is no limit to how much he can give to his own campaign and the fact that he didn't disclose the contribution, if it is in fact a contribution, is barely a crime - he said something to the effect of if you applied the disclosure law equally, Trump wouldn't even stand out as a serious violator and cited that Obama was guilty of the same thing (not for the same reasons but the motivation doesn't really matter).
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I agree it isn't a big deal on it's own. I saw an article about how it was done deliberately, following guidelines about referring to the uncharged 3rd party generically if at all, suggesting that it's part of a plan. But what? It could harm his credibility, but it's testimony, not some kind of rock-solid evidence. Could it be cited to enable more investigative tools? Or just a message from Cohen?
 
So now there's a second conspiracy against the US guilty plea from Trump's campaign. Gates and Manafort.
 
17.3% chance (from 538) of Republicans holding onto the House. 67.6% chance of holding onto the Senate. 44 Republican seats aren't even up for election (reinforcing the fact that there's no possible way the Dems could hit the 2/3rds mark to boot Trump).
 
Gulo Blue said:
17.3% chance (from 538) of Republicans holding onto the House. 67.6% chance of holding onto the Senate. 44 Republican seats aren't even up for election (reinforcing the fact that there's no possible way the Dems could hit the 2/3rds mark to boot Trump).
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That's not as high as I expected, not quite a slam dunk. No wonder they're shoving Kavanaugh through as quickly as possible.
 
sggatecl said:
That's not as high as I expected, not quite a slam dunk. No wonder they're shoving Kavanaugh through as quickly as possible.
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I feel like the polls should be viewed with more skepticism than usual. (Even though I also feel like people give polls too much crap over the Trump election. 70% is far from a certainty. 50/50 would mean you have no idea who's going to win, so 70% is slightly closer to having no idea than complete certainty.) The establishment Democrats are getting shaken up right now sort of like the Republicans were with the Tea Party movement.
 
Gulo Blue said:
I feel like the polls should be viewed with more skepticism than usual. (Even though I also feel like people give polls too much crap over the Trump election. 70% is far from a certainty. 50/50 would mean you have no idea who's going to win, so 70% is slightly closer to having no idea than complete certainty.) The establishment Democrats are getting shaken up right now sort of like the Republicans were with the Tea Party movement.
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at 70% shouldn't it have been closer than the electoral college landslide that it was? And was that 70% an average of all the polls or just Nate Silver, because of all the election coverage I watched going into the election, every single one indicated Trump had no chance. I don't remember how close the polling numbers were in each of the swing states but they couldn't have been that close for pundits to count virtually all of them for Clinton.
 
Spartanmack said:
at 70% shouldn't it have been closer than the electoral college landslide that it was? And was that 70% an average of all the polls or just Nate Silver, because of all the election coverage I watched going into the election, every single one indicated Trump had no chance. I don't remember how close the polling numbers were in each of the swing states but they couldn't have been that close for pundits to count virtually all of them for Clinton.
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Just Nate Silver, who I feel got more criticism than most. I don't think the relationship between odds and electoral college votes is remotely linear given how a tiny swing in a bunch of places can have a massive impact on electoral votes. It's one of those things not captured well by a single number expression for probability. Is a 70% chance of rain a 70% chance that it will rain everywhere or a 100% chance that 70% of the area will get rain?
 
When there's a trend, the poll data that is current at the time is already outdated - the trend almost surely has continued without being measured.

The polls were trending for Trump in the battle ground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Democrats knew that - well, everybody knew that, but the Democrats realized there was a real danger of losing because of this trend and the yet unrevealed data on the trend - Obama and the Clintons went on a full out blitzkrieg in the days before the election in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It was too late for them.
 
tinselwolverine said:
When there's a trend, the poll data that is current at the time is already outdated - the trend almost surely has continued without being measured.

The polls were trending for Trump in the battle ground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Democrats knew that - well, everybody knew that, but the Democrats realized there was a real danger of losing because of this trend and the yet unrevealed data on the trend - Obama and the Clintons went on a full out blitzkrieg in the days before the election in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It was too late for them.
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Trump supporters went full out blitzkrieg on PA as well - my neighbor spent almost the entire week leading up to the election staying in hotels and going door to door for Trump. He was quite proud that they flipped the state.

The only post mortem I'm truly interested in is seeing the video of Hillary smashing shit and cursing like a drunken sailor when it became clear she was losing. I don't think the rumors of a video existing are true - you'd think by now that thing would have been leaked. If I had the video and that cushy 4 possibly 8 year Clinton administration gig suddenly wasn't there, I'd consider selling it to the highest bidder. Oh well.
 
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Spartanmack said:
The only post mortem I'm truly interested in is seeing the video of Hillary smashing shit and cursing like a drunken sailor when it became clear she was losing. I don't think the rumors of a video existing are true - you'd think by now that thing would have been leaked. If I had the video and that cushy 4 possibly 8 year Clinton administration gig suddenly wasn't there, I'd consider selling it to the highest bidder. Oh well.
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I'd throw in 25 bucks to see that video. PPV.
 
Gulo Blue said:
Is this the thing the Mueller investigation isn't based on that Trump wants people to think it's based on?
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Sorry ya lost me, can’t help ya it’s all been discussed many times over on the banned outlets going back months
 
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tigermud said:
Sorry ya lost me, can?t help ya it?s all been discussed many times over on the banned outlets going back months
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Yeah, this is it.



https://www.nbcnews.com/news/crime-...ut-carter-page-dossier-secret-warrant-n893666


Trump allies think it's the basis for the Mueller probe. I think it's way too late for this kind of argument. You can't claim "there's nothing to see here, everybody's just biased" after however many guilty pleas and a changing of the guard. Comey hasn't been in charge for a long time.
 
Gulo Blue said:
Yeah, this is it.



https://www.nbcnews.com/news/crime-...ut-carter-page-dossier-secret-warrant-n893666


Trump allies think it's the basis for the Mueller probe. I think it's way too late for this kind of argument. You can't claim "there's nothing to see here, everybody's just biased" after however many guilty pleas and a changing of the guard. Comey hasn't been in charge for a long time.
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This is only a small portion and.. looks like they going to slow boat this yet stay tuned.
 
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Gulo Blue said:
Yeah, this is it.



https://www.nbcnews.com/news/crime-...ut-carter-page-dossier-secret-warrant-n893666


Trump allies think it's the basis for the Mueller probe. I think it's way too late for this kind of argument. You can't claim "there's nothing to see here, everybody's just biased" after however many guilty pleas and a changing of the guard. Comey hasn't been in charge for a long time.
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has anyone plead guilty to a charge related to Russian interference? Or anything involving Trump? Other than the questionable campaign finance plea by Cohen, aren't all the charges from things unrelated to Trump and his campaign? Manafort, for example, aren't his charges all related to shady things he did as a lobbyist before he was working for Trump's campaign? And all the indicted Russians - have any of them been tied to Trump or his campaign?
 
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