Keith Law's (ESPN) top 5 MVP ballot

[boogerlovejoy]

Or a SB could mean a walk to Miggy, lol. Have to look at both sides.

Which would put 2 guys on for Prince Fielder??

I don't see that as a bad thing in any way. Again, you're looking at one slice of a VERY big pie.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Which would put 2 guys on for Prince Fielder??

I don't see that as a bad thing in any way. Again, you're looking at one slice of a VERY big pie.

I want my best hitter batting not the 2nd best. Maybe that's just me.

And yes, I'm splitting hairs here.

 

[tigermud]

Tigers' Miguel Cabrera better in the clutch than Mike Trout, ESPN writer says


http://www.freep.com/article/201208...tigers-miguel-cabrera-clutch?odyssey=nav|head

 

[mhughes0021]

any1 wana take a shot at explaining how replacing miggy with a average minor leaguer only results in 5.3 less wins? id like to see how that argument works.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Tigers' Miguel Cabrera better in the clutch than Mike Trout, ESPN writer says


http://www.freep.com/article/201208...tigers-miguel-cabrera-clutch?odyssey=nav|head

And here's the whole story of you don't have Insider: The above link glosses over it a bit. If you're interested.

In his early look at the postseason awards Thursday, Keith Law placed two Tigers among the top four on his American League MVP ballot, but neither of them were named Miguel Cabrera. While I agree with Law that Austin Jackson and Justin Verlander are both having excellent seasons and are deserving of consideration, I do think there is a case to be made for Cabrera as a legitimate contender for AL MVP.

Let's start with the obvious. No, Cabrera can't match Mike Trout's overall numbers right now. Trout has posted a higher batting average, higher on-base percentage and higher slugging percentage, he leads the league in stolen bases and stolen base efficiency, and he's a fantastic defensive center fielder who adds a lot of value in the field. There isn't a player in baseball who stacks up next to Trout's overall line, Cabrera included.

However, there are reasons to think that perhaps Cabrera has been somewhat more valuable this year than his overall batting line would suggest, and the opposite may very well be true of Trout. That reason? Performance in the clutch.

No, I'm not talking about RBIs, which I find just as useless as Law does. Comparing RBI totals between a leadoff hitter and a guy who bats third is silly, as we'd simply be rewarding Cabrera for where he hits in the lineup while punishing Trout for batting once a game with the bases empty and hitting behind the weakest part of the Angels' lineup the rest of the game. Whether Cabrera leads the league in RBIs or not should be irrelevant in the MVP discussion, or really in any discussion not involving a trivia contest.

But just because RBIs are a bad metric doesn't mean that the idea that Cabrera has performed well in clutch situations is wrong. Using better metrics, we actually can confirm that he has, in fact, been a fantastic clutch hitter this year.

Using Leverage Index, we can quantify the relative impact any given plate appearance has on the outcome of a game, based on the score, inning, number of base runners, and how many outs there are at the time. At FanGraphs, we break every player's plate appearances into three tiers, ranging from low leverage (game already decided) to high leverage (high chance of determining who wins and loses) and can evaluate how players have done in the "clutch" opportunities they've been given.

Miguel Cabrera: Mr. Clutch?
Situation BA OBP OPS w/OBA
Low Leverage .332 .389 .613 .424
Medium Leverage .305 .365 .508 .369
High Leverage .417 .500 .833 .524

As it turns out, Cabrera has been a shining star in such situations this year. In the chart to the right, check out Cabrera's performance, by leverage:

In 44 high-leverage plate appearances, Cabrera has 15 hits, 11 of which have gone for extra bases. He's also drawn seven walks, creating an even higher pressure situation for the pitcher, who now has to face Prince Fielder without first base being open. Cabrera's .526 wOBA in high leverage situations easily paces the American League.

The fact that Alejandro de Aza and Alex Rios -- neither exactly known as fearsome clutch hitters -- are also in the top five should tell you something about the year-to-year variability of clutch performance, but we're not trying to predict whether Cabrera can keep hitting like this in high pressure situations, we're just noting that he has so far this year.

Mike Trout: No pressure
Situation BA OBP OPS w/OBA
Low Leverage .376 .459 .700 .499
Medium Leverage .317 .369 .511 .394
High Leverage .276 .289 .517 .345

On the other end of the spectrum, the best hitter in low-leverage situations in the AL? None other than Trout. In fact, Trout's leverage splits are basically a mirror opposite of Cabrera's. Check out the chart to the right to see Trout's performance, by leverage:

Trout has been a monster when the game is already determined one way or another but just a little better than league average when the game is on the line. Now, you should not take these numbers to mean that Trout folds under pressure or that he lacks some personality trait that allows him to answer the call when necessary, as we're just dealing with 38 plate appearances, and these splits will even out over a larger sample of data. I am not arguing that Cabrera has a clutch gene that Trout does not.

Mike Trout's small leverage numbers don't mean he folds under pressure.
However, that's not the question the MVP Award is asking. It is a retrospective question, asking who did more to help their team win in the past. And, while it is not a predictive measure that tells us anything about what will happen in the future, the reality is that Cabrera has been the best high leverage hitter in the AL this year, while Trout has produced a great majority of his offense in situations where the outcome was already fairly clear.

Clutch performance shouldn't be the only factor in MVP voting, and we shouldn't pretend that Trout's performance in low and medium leverage situations hold no value. That Trout has trounced Cabrera in larger samples needs to be reflected in the voting, as does Trout's elite base running and defense.

However, just looking at their raw batting lines overlooks the fact that Cabrera has an additional 83 plate appearances overall, and that Cabrera has done more with the important opportunities he's been given. That difference in quantity of playing time and extreme greatness in the clutch should be enough to put Cabrera in the MVP conversation.

When you adjust for the timing of when they've performed at their best, the gap shrinks enough that a vote for Cabrera isn't as crazy as it might sound otherwise. Trout is still the best candidate, but Cabrera is as worthy as any other player on the ballot for second, and if he continues to scorch the ball for the last six weeks of the season, he might even end up as a legitimate selection for the top spot.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

And here's the whole story of you don't have Insider: The above link glosses over it a bit. If you're interested.

In his early look at the postseason awards Thursday, Keith Law placed two Tigers among the top four on his American League MVP ballot, but neither of them were named Miguel Cabrera. While I agree with Law that Austin Jackson and Justin Verlander are both having excellent seasons and are deserving of consideration, I do think there is a case to be made for Cabrera as a legitimate contender for AL MVP.

Let's start with the obvious. No, Cabrera can't match Mike Trout's overall numbers right now. Trout has posted a higher batting average, higher on-base percentage and higher slugging percentage, he leads the league in stolen bases and stolen base efficiency, and he's a fantastic defensive center fielder who adds a lot of value in the field. There isn't a player in baseball who stacks up next to Trout's overall line, Cabrera included.

However, there are reasons to think that perhaps Cabrera has been somewhat more valuable this year than his overall batting line would suggest, and the opposite may very well be true of Trout. That reason? Performance in the clutch.

No, I'm not talking about RBIs, which I find just as useless as Law does. Comparing RBI totals between a leadoff hitter and a guy who bats third is silly, as we'd simply be rewarding Cabrera for where he hits in the lineup while punishing Trout for batting once a game with the bases empty and hitting behind the weakest part of the Angels' lineup the rest of the game. Whether Cabrera leads the league in RBIs or not should be irrelevant in the MVP discussion, or really in any discussion not involving a trivia contest.

But just because RBIs are a bad metric doesn't mean that the idea that Cabrera has performed well in clutch situations is wrong. Using better metrics, we actually can confirm that he has, in fact, been a fantastic clutch hitter this year.

Using Leverage Index, we can quantify the relative impact any given plate appearance has on the outcome of a game, based on the score, inning, number of base runners, and how many outs there are at the time. At FanGraphs, we break every player's plate appearances into three tiers, ranging from low leverage (game already decided) to high leverage (high chance of determining who wins and loses) and can evaluate how players have done in the "clutch" opportunities they've been given.

Miguel Cabrera: Mr. Clutch?
Situation BA OBP OPS w/OBA
Low Leverage .332 .389 .613 .424
Medium Leverage .305 .365 .508 .369
High Leverage .417 .500 .833 .524

As it turns out, Cabrera has been a shining star in such situations this year. In the chart to the right, check out Cabrera's performance, by leverage:

In 44 high-leverage plate appearances, Cabrera has 15 hits, 11 of which have gone for extra bases. He's also drawn seven walks, creating an even higher pressure situation for the pitcher, who now has to face Prince Fielder without first base being open. Cabrera's .526 wOBA in high leverage situations easily paces the American League.

The fact that Alejandro de Aza and Alex Rios -- neither exactly known as fearsome clutch hitters -- are also in the top five should tell you something about the year-to-year variability of clutch performance, but we're not trying to predict whether Cabrera can keep hitting like this in high pressure situations, we're just noting that he has so far this year.

Mike Trout: No pressure
Situation BA OBP OPS w/OBA
Low Leverage .376 .459 .700 .499
Medium Leverage .317 .369 .511 .394
High Leverage .276 .289 .517 .345

On the other end of the spectrum, the best hitter in low-leverage situations in the AL? None other than Trout. In fact, Trout's leverage splits are basically a mirror opposite of Cabrera's. Check out the chart to the right to see Trout's performance, by leverage:

Trout has been a monster when the game is already determined one way or another but just a little better than league average when the game is on the line. Now, you should not take these numbers to mean that Trout folds under pressure or that he lacks some personality trait that allows him to answer the call when necessary, as we're just dealing with 38 plate appearances, and these splits will even out over a larger sample of data. I am not arguing that Cabrera has a clutch gene that Trout does not.

Mike Trout's small leverage numbers don't mean he folds under pressure.
However, that's not the question the MVP Award is asking. It is a retrospective question, asking who did more to help their team win in the past. And, while it is not a predictive measure that tells us anything about what will happen in the future, the reality is that Cabrera has been the best high leverage hitter in the AL this year, while Trout has produced a great majority of his offense in situations where the outcome was already fairly clear.

Clutch performance shouldn't be the only factor in MVP voting, and we shouldn't pretend that Trout's performance in low and medium leverage situations hold no value. That Trout has trounced Cabrera in larger samples needs to be reflected in the voting, as does Trout's elite base running and defense.

However, just looking at their raw batting lines overlooks the fact that Cabrera has an additional 83 plate appearances overall, and that Cabrera has done more with the important opportunities he's been given. That difference in quantity of playing time and extreme greatness in the clutch should be enough to put Cabrera in the MVP conversation.

When you adjust for the timing of when they've performed at their best, the gap shrinks enough that a vote for Cabrera isn't as crazy as it might sound otherwise. Trout is still the best candidate, but Cabrera is as worthy as any other player on the ballot for second, and if he continues to scorch the ball for the last six weeks of the season, he might even end up as a legitimate selection for the top spot.

There are times where you can over think things, this would be one of them. That is too much information and not enough all in one article.

Sometimes the eyeball test is the best measure.

Trout is the 2012 AL MVP right now. No matter how much info you put behind it.

 

[tonyballs]

Should be a good race down the stretch.

 

[xer0]

what a garbage list.

mvp right now is between trout and cabrera

lmfao at not having cabrera in the top 5.

defense is getting overvalued.

 

[Mitchrapp]

There are times where you can over think things, this would be one of them. That is too much information and not enough all in one article.

Sometimes the eyeball test is the best measure.

Trout is the 2012 AL MVP right now. No matter how much info you put behind it.

At times sure but there are more things than just Avg, OBP and OPS. And even WAR. Even this guy said that Trout was the front runner. Just that's it not a lock. Its closer than it looks. And I think metrics and other newer stat measuring should play some role into it.

But, I still say a handful of voters already made their mind up in June so regardless what happens the last 6 weeks, for them it means nothing.

 

[tigersofjustice]

Unless Trout sits out the last month with an injury, Miggy won't win. That said, he's an easy choice for 2nd.

 

[sggatecl]

Unless Trout sits out the last month with an injury, Miggy won't win. That said, he's an easy choice for 2nd.

Same old, it feels like.

 

[kalinecountry]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/stor...nse-critical-detroit-tigers-playoff-hopes-mlb
Cabrera's defense key for Tigers.
Examining players whose defense is critical to their teams' playoff hopes.
espninsider

another insider if mitch or someone else wants to add the rest of the info.
from the first part, they guy at BaseballInfoSolutions is stating what we know....Miggy's defense at third hasn't been as bad as we were led to believe, nice plays, a few not so good.

 

[jmakula87]

Unless Trout sits out the last month with an injury, Miggy won't win. That said, he's an easy choice for 2nd.

Trout has dropped off a bit though this month. If it keeps that up and Miggy keeps hammering the ball, then Miggy could easily win, and fortunately defense isn't rated as highly as offense in the MVP race.

 

[servinthed]

Trout has dropped off a bit though this month. If it keeps that up and Miggy keeps hammering the ball, then Miggy could easily win, and fortunately defense isn't rated as highly as offense in the MVP race.

I agree, Trout is batting .270 this month, and his BA has dropped almost 20 points since his peak. I predict that Miggy will win the batting title as well as the RBI crown, and he has a real chance to win the triple crown, although HR will be the toughest category.

 

[mjsb2]

At times sure but there are more things than just Avg, OBP and OPS. And even WAR. Even this guy said that Trout was the front runner. Just that's it not a lock. Its closer than it looks. And I think metrics and other newer stat measuring should play some role into it.

But, I still say a handful of voters already made their mind up in June so regardless what happens the last 6 weeks, for them it means nothing.

Disagree, Trout is the favorite, but their minds aren't made up.

If that was the case, Hamilton would be the lock, not Trout.