Might As Well Start Looking Forward to 2022 Now

[grandy]

How confident are we anyway in kicking FGs? They?re rotating guys off the street at this point, seems almost as much of a risk as going for it.

 

[detroit1811]

Analytics dont say to go for it down 10 with 4 minutes left. Maybe thats why hes fucking up so much....his analytics book is wrong.

4th down decision bot
@ben_bot_baldwin
---> DET (14) @ CHI (24) <---
DET has 4th & 1 at the CHI 8

Recommendation (STRONG): ???? Go for it (+4.5 WP)
Actual play: ???? (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short left to http://A.St. Brown [A.Blackson].
3:46 PM ? Oct 3, 2021
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Right or wrong the analytics do say to go for it. It this was a 2-1 football team fighting to win a division game I think I would lean towards the FG. We were 0-3 at the brink of 0-4. If we convert and score a TD now we are only down by 3 with 4min left. You can onisde kick if you want that way even if the bears get a FG it is still one possession or kick it deep and know they can get a 1st down or two because all you need is 3 points and realistically you can get in FG range with as little as 30-40 seconds on the clock. If we kick the FG, our defense has very little wiggle room and has to basically get a three and out just for the chance to tie the game. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I bet 4th & 1 is converted close to 80% of the time. I like those odds honestly. My issue was the way they went about it. Williams was playing very well all game. At the very least you substitute him in and huddle up and at least fake the run. The play call was rushed and terrible. Even with that, Amon Ra was open and Goff missed him.

 

[LKP]

4th down decision bot
@ben_bot_baldwin
---> DET (14) @ CHI (24) <---
DET has 4th & 1 at the CHI 8

Recommendation (STRONG): ???? Go for it (+4.5 WP)
Actual play: ???? (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short left to http://A.St. Brown [A.Blackson].
3:46 PM ? Oct 3, 2021
72
5
Share this Tweet

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2021...ret-4th-down-aggressiveness-vs-bears-shouldnt

Right or wrong the analytics do say to go for it. It this was a 2-1 football team fighting to win a division game I think I would lean towards the FG. We were 0-3 at the brink of 0-4. If we convert and score a TD now we are only down by 3 with 4min left. You can onisde kick if you want that way even if the bears get a FG it is still one possession or kick it deep and know they can get a 1st down or two because all you need is 3 points and realistically you can get in FG range with as little as 30-40 seconds on the clock. If we kick the FG, our defense has very little wiggle room and has to basically get a three and out just for the chance to tie the game. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I bet 4th & 1 is converted close to 80% of the time. I like those odds honestly. My issue was the way they went about it. Williams was playing very well all game. At the very least you substitute him in and huddle up and at least fake the run. The play call was rushed and terrible. Even with that, Amon Ra was open and Goff missed him.

Yep. Hughes just wants to complain about the coach. Campbell will learn from it. He already admitted the error to throw and hurry the play.

 

[mhughes0021]

4th down decision bot
@ben_bot_baldwin
---> DET (14) @ CHI (24) <---
DET has 4th & 1 at the CHI 8

Recommendation (STRONG): ???? Go for it (+4.5 WP)
Actual play: ???? (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short left to http://A.St. Brown [A.Blackson].
3:46 PM ? Oct 3, 2021
72
5
Share this Tweet

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2021...ret-4th-down-aggressiveness-vs-bears-shouldnt

Right or wrong the analytics do say to go for it. It this was a 2-1 football team fighting to win a division game I think I would lean towards the FG. We were 0-3 at the brink of 0-4. If we convert and score a TD now we are only down by 3 with 4min left. You can onisde kick if you want that way even if the bears get a FG it is still one possession or kick it deep and know they can get a 1st down or two because all you need is 3 points and realistically you can get in FG range with as little as 30-40 seconds on the clock. If we kick the FG, our defense has very little wiggle room and has to basically get a three and out just for the chance to tie the game. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I bet 4th & 1 is converted close to 80% of the time. I like those odds honestly. My issue was the way they went about it. Williams was playing very well all game. At the very least you substitute him in and huddle up and at least fake the run. The play call was rushed and terrible. Even with that, Amon Ra was open and Goff missed him.

No..the analytics do not say go for it. The analytics are based on having proper inputs...garbage in, garbage out as they say. In order for the analytics to properly spit out a recommendation you would need to input:

The Lions are playing
You have Dan Campbell as a HC
DC isnt going to huddle
DC is going to call a pass play
That pass play will be executed by the 30th ranked QB in the league
That pass play is going to be hurried at the line
That pass play is going to Amon Ra St Brown...a rookie with like 3 catches. Not Davante Adams....Amon Ra St Brown.

You put those inputs into your analytical computer and the fucking computer will laugh back at you.

Dan Campbell and analytics lol...he sounds dumb even talking about them.

 

[dtroitlionsfan951]

No..the analytics do not say go for it. The analytics are based on having proper inputs...garbage in, garbage out as they say. In order for the analytics to properly spit out a recommendation you would need to input:

The Lions are playing
You have Dan Campbell as a HC
DC isnt going to huddle
DC is going to call a pass play
That pass play will be executed by the 30th ranked QB in the league
That pass play is going to be hurried at the line
That pass play is going to Amon Ra St Brown...a rookie with like 3 catches. Not Davante Adams....Amon Ra St Brown.

You put those inputs into your analytical computer and the fucking computer will laugh back at you.

Dan Campbell and analytics lol...he sounds dumb even talking about them.

Good try, but wouldn?t the analytics in your scenario also include all of those factors? Like you have the 30th best qb, what are the odds you?ll be this close to scoring a touchdown if you manage to get the ball back in the first place?

 

[dtroitlionsfan951]

No..the analytics do not say go for it. The analytics are based on having proper inputs...garbage in, garbage out as they say. In order for the analytics to properly spit out a recommendation you would need to input:

The Lions are playing
You have Dan Campbell as a HC
DC isnt going to huddle
DC is going to call a pass play
That pass play will be executed by the 30th ranked QB in the league
That pass play is going to be hurried at the line
That pass play is going to Amon Ra St Brown...a rookie with like 3 catches. Not Davante Adams....Amon Ra St Brown.

You put those inputs into your analytical computer and the fucking computer will laugh back at you.

Dan Campbell and analytics lol...he sounds dumb even talking about them.

No offense but your football knowledge is kind of a poor resource as it is for somebody who has been posting here for a long time. You thought a restructure was a paycut for gods sakes.

 

[mhughes0021]

No offense but your football knowledge is kind of a poor resource as it is for somebody who has been posting here for a long time. You thought a restructure was a paycut for gods sakes.

"Goff and the Lions converted $20 million of his $26.5 million base salary for the 2021 season into a signing bonus. Doing so frees up some major salary cap room for 2021."

Call it whatever you want....he restructured his deal so there was more cap space. Which was your point, right? My point was Jared Goff did that for us and we didnt improve...at all. I dont even think we used the money lmao.

 

[mhughes0021]

PFF grades (the bible)
Total Defense 32nd
Run Defense 28th (Wes selected back to back DTs lmao)
Pass Coverage 32nd
Tackling 31st
Special Teams 31st
Total Offense 23rd
Overall 29th

start the rebuild over....

 

[LKP]

"Goff and the Lions converted $20 million of his $26.5 million base salary for the 2021 season into a signing bonus. Doing so frees up some major salary cap room for 2021."

Call it whatever you want....he restructured his deal so there was more cap space. Which was your point, right? My point was Jared Goff did that for us and we didnt improve...at all. I dont even think we used the money lmao.

It carries over if we didn't. 55 million in dead cap. Was not a pay cut but Lions needed that space. IR guys count so it matters even more now (28 million on IR right now). But looks like we have 5.5 million left after the Collins cut.

55 million in dead cap coming off the books next year. Lions will be in really good cap shape for 2022.

Goff cap hit down to 10 million this year now but 31 million next year. We'll see what they do with that. They'll need to trade him before that 15 million roster bonus hits next year. If not we'll see if they keep it at 30 or restructure again or force a pay cut then. But they can keep it at 30 and still have a ton of space. 2022 they shouldn't go crazy in free agency either. Maybe 1 or 2 bigger type deals. 2023 the year to spend crazy on FA if they do it. It all needs to be done through the draft for us to become good really though

 

[LKP]

PFF grades (the bible)
Total Defense 32nd
Run Defense 28th (Wes selected back to back DTs lmao)
Pass Coverage 32nd
Tackling 31st
Special Teams 31st
Total Offense 23rd
Overall 29th

start the rebuild over....

There are stop gaps (Goff, Anzalone, Brockers), injuries and one year deals galore. Rebuild doesn't mean we are 15th in defense on year 1 lol. Everyone knows there is a ton more work to do. McNeil has been solid, Levi struggling early but far from kicking them to the curb in 4 games as a rookie lol

Revamp WRs including a number 1, safeties (Walker is 6th ranked in league per PFF if we are using the bible), one CB, LBs and a stud pass rusher coming. Plus a rookie young QB in the next 2 drafts.

 

[detroit1811]

There are stop gaps (Goff, Anzalone, Brockers), injuries and one year deals galore. Rebuild doesn't mean we are 15th in defense on year 1 lol. Everyone knows there is a ton more work to do. McNeil has been solid, Levi struggling early but far from kicking them to the curb in 4 games as a rookie lol

Revamp WRs including a number 1, safeties (Walker is 6th ranked in league per PFF if we are using the bible), one CB, LBs and a stud pass rusher coming. Plus a rookie young QB in the next 2 drafts.

I do think it would be a mistake to wait until 2023 to find your QB. Only way that should happen is after all the evaluations, there is nobody we deem worth the pick. The longer we wait to find our guy the further this rebuild will linger.

We literally had what may have been a top 5 worse defense all time last year. Going to take a lot more then one off-season with very little cap room to work with to fix it. Throw in a bunch of injuries already and now the depth we clearly dont have is starting to really show.

Matt Patricia had zero excuses for taking a team who was at least competing for the playoffs every year and not winning year one. He had a solid team already in place then chased everyone off.

 

[mhughes0021]

I do think it would be a mistake to wait until 2023 to find your QB. Only way that should happen is after all the evaluations, there is nobody we deem worth the pick. The longer we wait to find our guy the further this rebuild will linger.

We literally had what may have been a top 5 worse defense all time last year. Going to take a lot more then one off-season with very little cap room to work with to fix it. Throw in a bunch of injuries already and now the depth we clearly dont have is starting to really show.

Matt Patricia had zero excuses for taking a team who was at least competing for the playoffs every year and not winning year one. He had a solid team already in place then chased everyone off.

Jeff Okudah over Justin Hebert. That will set us back a decade. Book it...

Good job Quin!

 

[boogerlovejoy]

Jeff Okudah over Justin Hebert. That will set us back a decade. Book it...

Good job Quin!

Ouch. That?s bad.

Hopefully, Okudah can become a good NFL safety.

 

[LKP]

Stafford was here and good. And quinn was drafting for his job not the future. They had traded Slay and Okudah rated higher by all than Herbert. Hindsight bullshit calling for Herbert now. Why no calla for Tua. He sucks and was next qb

Also you know what happened to the coach who took Herbert
He got fired and is now our oc

 

[mhughes0021]

Stafford was here and good. And quinn was drafting for his job not the future. They had traded Slay and Okudah rated higher by all than Herbert. Hindsight bullshit calling for Herbert now. Why no calla for Tua. He sucks and was next qb

Also you know what happened to the coach who took Herbert
He got fired and is now our oc

You pick in the top 3 you take a shot at your next qb, OT or impact DE. If you grab another position they should be a generational talent....okudah was never going to be that.

 

[detroit1811]

You pick in the top 3 you take a shot at your next qb, OT or impact DE. If you grab another position they should be a generational talent....okudah was never going to be that.

Okudah was billed as the cleanest player in the draft and one of the best CB prospects of the past 10 years. You can argue the value of taking a CB that high, though

 

[LKP]

You pick in the top 3 you take a shot at your next qb, OT or impact DE. If you grab another position they should be a generational talent....okudah was never going to be that.

They didn't need a QB, Andrew Thomas sucks (and they didn't need a LT with Decker) and there was no DE available. There was a DT (who you keep calling wasted picks even in Round 2 and 3) in Derrick Brown (who has helped Carolina transform their D) and a LB/S in Isiah Simmons.

Jeff Okudah was the best rated player and a big need for Detroit for a team needing man corners that could press and tackle. They wanted a Joe Haden or Greedy Williams or Marshon Lattimore, it didn't work out like that so far and injury has alot to do with it too in both years (multiple in 2020 and achilles in 2021).

Detroit is 12th in PFF pass rush rating BTW (the bible).You left that off your bashing list I see. But this will take a big hit with Okwara on IR for the year. Good signing but bad luck. Charles Harris has a nice little revival of his career in pass rush so far at least (not good in run D)

Herbert 9 TDs and 3 ints with 68% with better WRs
Goff 7 TDs and 2 ints with 68% with crap WRs. A little more check downs of course too

Herbert on the Lions, who knows. Maybe he would have 0 TDs and 8 picks so far or been broken and you would be bashing him and Quinn for taking a shitty/injured QB

And we all know if they took a QB, it would be shitty Tua who was QB2

 

[tomdalton22]

They didn't need a QB, Andrew Thomas sucks (and they didn't need a LT with Decker)

well, they didn't need a LT with Decker in the 2020 draft either

 

[detroit1811]

well, they didn't need a LT with Decker in the 2020 draft either

That is a little different. There are plenty on teams that draft a LT with one in place. They then proceed to play that player at LG or RT. You can't realistically play two QB's.

At the end of the day hindsight is 20/20, and barely any Lions fan that I talked to wanted Herbert. It was mostly Okudah if we stayed at 3. Most of everyone wanted a trade down and there were a few Tua backers.

I honestly wanted to drop down and grab Brown/Simmons or if they were gone one of the top tackles. Stafford was still very much the guy and you do not draft a QB that high if that is the case.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

That is a little different. There are plenty on teams that draft a LT with one in place. They then proceed to play that player at LG or RT. You can't realistically play two QB's.

At the end of the day hindsight is 20/20, and barely any Lions fan that I talked to wanted Herbert. It was mostly Okudah if we stayed at 3. Most of everyone wanted a trade down and there were a few Tua backers.

I honestly wanted to drop down and grab Brown/Simmons or if they were gone one of the top tackles. Stafford was still very much the guy and you do not draft a QB that high if that is the case.

I wanted Simmons. Okudah was the right pick, I believe. He and CJ Henderson were considered 1A & 1B as far as CB's.

Henderson just got traded (on a rookie contract ???) and Okudah as been injured and terrible.

Not a good year for CB's.

I generally agree with Hughes that there are certain positions that carry greater value at the top of the draft......but had Okudah worked out nobody would be complaining. I look at it this way......if the #3 picks is a bust.....does it matter, AT ALL, if its a QB, OT, DE or CB??? No. If the #3 pick is a home run.....then I would prefer it were a QB, DE or OT....in that order.

Unfortunately for us.....it looks like Okudah will be another on the LONG list of Lions busts.