MSU vs MTSU

[boogerlovejoy]

I'm not watching the game so I don't know if Syracuse is defending a lot better but MTSU is 2 for 10 from 3 and shooting 28% from the field twelve minutes into the first half...awesome, thanks a lot assholes.

I am done with the 2016 tournament.....watching the Syracuse vs. MTSU game would be like watching the guy who just stole your girlfriend fuck her.

I'm good.

When does baseball start?

 

[Spartan23MSU]

I am done with the 2016 tournament.....watching the Syracuse vs. MTSU game would be like watching the guy who just stole your girlfriend fuck her.

I'm good.

When does baseball start?

Youve had some good ones the last few days

 

[Spartanmack]

Defending much better both on the perimeter and on the inside. They have held Upshaw to just one basket. Also dominating them on the inside on the offensive end.

No clue how State let this team hang with them let alone beat them.

They can't be defending that well. MTSU is getting a lot of second chanes - they have 18 offensive rebounds

 

[swami45]

They can't be defending that well. MTSU is getting a lot of second chanes - they have 18 offensive rebounds

Almost every shot was contested, they rarely had an open look. They rebounded well on the offensive end but did nothing with it

 

[Sbee]

not yesterday but over the course of the season, our fortunes, at least offensively were tied to the 3. We were probably more consistently weak on defending against the dribble drive but when we were hitting shots, it mattered a lot less.

Yesterday, we may not have died by the 3 but we became overly reliant on it at times. It's sort of a double edged sword because hitting 3s was what got us back in the game on at least a few of those 2nd half rallies but once we got to within 1 or two possessions we kept jacking them up, not rebounding and falling behind again.

My point is, I'd rather not rely too heavily on perimeter shooting to overcome other weaknesses like the inability to stop a player going to the rim. I'd be totally fine to not lead the nation in 3 pt shooting over the course of a season and have a team that doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. I'm not saying I want a team that can't shoot 3s, just that i'd happily trade down a few spots in the rankings in that category for a more well rounded team.

I just see so many post mortum comments about our offense. Our shooting, shot selection, or offensive execution was not the reason we lost. Of course you could already make more shots and score more but if we shoot 55/45 you should almost always win.

Discussions of why we lost should begin and end with our defense. Of course they hit some shots falling down but it was all defensive lapses. Msu is a team that played great team defense but did not have excellent individual defenders to lock people one on one like a Branden Dawson or Gary Harris. We had great help defense all year but that's harder when your big guys are out on the perimeter. We kept trying to find someone who could guard the 4, davis, clark, schilling, bess, goins, wollenman. I just wish izzo didn't have the quick hook on some of these guys, it's one and done time so you can't wait for someone to wake up but you know what these guys can do from practice. If clark, davis, etc are the guys who can guard a stretch 4 in practice you just roll with them. Tough call but back to my original point the dissection of this one should be focused on the defensive end of floor.

 

[Spartanmack]

I just see so many post mortum comments about our offense. Our shooting, shot selection, or offensive execution was not the reason we lost. Of course you could already make more shots and score more but if we shoot 55/45 you should almost always win.

Discussions of why we lost should begin and end with our defense. Of course they hit some shots falling down but it was all defensive lapses. Msu is a team that played great team defense but did not have excellent individual defenders to lock people one on one like a Branden Dawson or Gary Harris. We had great help defense all year but that's harder when your big guys are out on the perimeter. We kept trying to find someone who could guard the 4, davis, clark, schilling, bess, goins, wollenman. I just wish izzo didn't have the quick hook on some of these guys, it's one and done time so you can't wait for someone to wake up but you know what these guys can do from practice. If clark, davis, etc are the guys who can guard a stretch 4 in practice you just roll with them. Tough call but back to my original point the dissection of this one should be focused on the defensive end of floor.

Again, my comment was about the season not the last or any one game. But if you insist on making it about one game yes, our defense sucked, everyone acknowledges that. But that doesn't mean the offense is blameless. There were several points where we had gotten within 1 or 2 points that we were jacking up 3s early in the shot clock not even trying to play through the post for easy baskets or kick outs to more open shooters. We also weren't in position to rebound those misses. They should have been eating more clock when the score was tight, and moving the ball creating back door or more open jump shot opportunities. Forbes pulling shot fakes or step back 3s off the dribble 10 or 12 seconds into the clock killed every comeback. Just because you shoot well overall on the nigh doesn't mean you're taking the best shots or running the right offense for the situation, particularly the critical situations. When you miss sometimes matters as much as how often you miss.

 

[Sbee]

Again, my comment was about the season not the last or any one game. But if you insist on making it about one game yes, our defense sucked, everyone acknowledges that. But that doesn't mean the offense is blameless. There were several points where we had gotten within 1 or 2 points that we were jacking up 3s early in the shot clock not even trying to play through the post for easy baskets or kick outs to more open shooters. We also weren't in position to rebound those misses. They should have been eating more clock when the score was tight, and moving the ball creating back door or more open jump shot opportunities. Forbes pulling shot fakes or step back 3s off the dribble 10 or 12 seconds into the clock killed every comeback. Just because you shoot well overall on the nigh doesn't mean you're taking the best shots or running the right offense for the situation, particularly the critical situations. When you miss sometimes matters as much as how often you miss.

I get it, we could have outscored them in more of a track meet, we didn't get the transition opportunities and open 3's like we usually do. I just look at it like a golfer hitting 15 greens and having 6 3 putts and complaining about their long game

 

[Spartanmack]

I get it, we could have outscored them in more of a track meet, we didn't get the transition opportunities and open 3's like we usually do. I just look at it like a golfer hitting 15 greens and having 6 3 putts and complaining about their long game

I understand and I'm just saying I'd be totally fine with a team that is good but not the best 3 point shooting team in the country that also doesn't have a glaring weakness elsewhere, like we did on defense this year. As for this game, I think defense was the biggest but not the only reason we lost and sometimes statistics don't tell the whole story. To use your analogy, sometimes you're better off laying up or missing the green a little to one side or the other than you are hitting the green and leaving yourself on the upper/lower deck with a down/uphill 70'+ triple breaker...

 

[Spartanmack]

Almost every shot was contested, they rarely had an open look. They rebounded well on the offensive end but did nothing with it

sounds like it was as much or more mean reversion than it was the Syracuse defense. you can let a team that shoots 38% from 3 and 45% from the field have good looks and they won't shoot 58% and 55%, respectively - at least not more often than not. Yeah, we played lax defense and most of the blame goes to that but we also ran into a buzz saw with a team that had a massive outlier of a night shooting, driving and getting and-1s, etc. We've had defensive lapses or had certain parts of our defense exposed and beaten better teams than MTSU.

They beat us and no one can take that away from them but they did it by having a better than 2 standard deviation shooting night - they could have beaten every team in the field that night.

 

[Sbee]

a little salt in the wound by nate silver today

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/michigan-state-and-the-biggest-ncaa-tournament-upsets-ever/

 

[boogerlovejoy]

sounds like it was as much or more mean reversion than it was the Syracuse defense. you can let a team that shoots 38% from 3 and 45% from the field have good looks and they won't shoot 58% and 55%, respectively - at least not more often than not. Yeah, we played lax defense and most of the blame goes to that but we also ran into a buzz saw with a team that had a massive outlier of a night shooting, driving and getting and-1s, etc. We've had defensive lapses or had certain parts of our defense exposed and beaten better teams than MTSU.

They beat us and no one can take that away from them but they did it by having a better than 2 standard deviation shooting night - they could have beaten every team in the field that night.

They beat us because we played terrible defense, were outhustled and they got a few breaks here and there.

They had a fantastic game plan and executed it perfectly. They led for 40 minutes and had an answer for every run we made. The fact that MTSU beat MSU may be a fluke.......but the outcome of that game was NOT. Meaning if we played them 10 times......and played that way all 10.......we'd lose 8 or 9 of those 10 games. The fact is, I thought they left points on the floor.......and they fuckin scored 90!!!!

One thing you cannot quantify with statistics is the fact we gave them WAY WAY too many open looks. I would expect a team to shoot a higher percentage than normal when they're shooting open jumpers and uncontested layups.

We got beat by the better team Friday. End of story.

 

[Spartanmack]

They beat us because we played terrible defense, were outhustled and they got a few breaks here and there.

They had a fantastic game plan and executed it perfectly. They led for 40 minutes and had an answer for every run we made. The fact that MTSU beat MSU may be a fluke.......but the outcome of that game was NOT. Meaning if we played them 10 times......and played that way all 10.......we'd lose 8 or 9 of those 10 games. The fact is, I thought they left points on the floor.......and they fuckin scored 90!!!!

One thing you cannot quantify with statistics is the fact we gave them WAY WAY too many open looks. I would expect a team to shoot a higher percentage than normal when they're shooting open jumpers and uncontested layups.

We got beat by the better team Friday. End of story.

We didn't get beat by the better team. No one in their right mind would say MTSU is a better team than MSU. They were better that night, but that is the nature of the tournament - nobody is unbeatable on a given night. What MTSU did on Friday was a >2 standard deviation event. It's ridiculous to say "if they played that well 10 times, we'd lose most of them". If we played them 10 times, there is no chance that they would play that well all 10 times or most or even half of them. The outcome of that game was the perfect storm - we had a horrible night defensively and they had a massive outlier night offensively. Like I said, it's the nature of the tournament. If we play them 10 times, we win 9 of them - unfortunately, the 10th one happened to be in the NCAA tournament.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

We didn't get beat by the better team. No one in their right mind would say MTSU is a better team than MSU. They were better that night, but that is the nature of the tournament - nobody is unbeatable on a given night. What MTSU did on Friday was a >2 standard deviation event. It's ridiculous to say "if they played that well 10 times, we'd lose all 10". If we played them 10 times, there is no chance that they would play that well all 10 times or most or even half of them. The outcome of that game was the perfect storm - we had a horrible night defensively and they had a massive outlier night offensively. Like I said, it's the nature of the tournament. If we play them 10 times, we win 9 of them - unfortunately, the 10th one happened to be in the NCAA tournament.

Read my post again. I make it clear that MTSU was better for one day. I mention it twice.

I think your not giving MTSU enough credit. There is NO WAY you watched that game and thought MSU was a better team that night. NONE. The outcome of that game was no fluke. They dominated from start to finish......minus a couple small MSU runs that would close the gap.

The defensive effort was poor and Izzo was out coached that game. It happens. Happens to every coach.

Its not like they were just chucking up 25 footers with hands in their face every shot. They were taking wide open looks from just about everywhere on the floor. Teams are going to shoot a higher % when they are wide open.

As a fan you want to make excuses and blame different things. Sometimes, you just gotta man up and admit that the other guy was just better that day. MTSU was.

 

[Spartanmack]

Read my post again. I make it clear that MTSU was better for one day. I mention it twice.

I think your not giving MTSU enough credit. There is NO WAY you watched that game and thought MSU was a better team that night. NONE. The outcome of that game was no fluke. They dominated from start to finish......minus a couple small MSU runs that would close the gap.

The defensive effort was poor and Izzo was out coached that game. It happens. Happens to every coach.

Its not like they were just chucking up 25 footers with hands in their face every shot. They were taking wide open looks from just about everywhere on the floor. Teams are going to shoot a higher % when they are wide open.

As a fan you want to make excuses and blame different things. Sometimes, you just gotta man up and admit that the other guy was just better that day. MTSU was.

I said they weren't the better team and they're not the better team, they were just better that night. My point is that it's ridiculous to say if MTSU "played that well 10 times" because there is no chance they shoot the ball >2 standard deviations above average 10 times. If we played them 10 times, we'd beat them 9 times because on average they'd shoot 39% and 45% from the field (at best and probably lower actually because they achieved that average against inferior opposition). If we played them 10 times the breakdown would probably be something like this - run them out of the gym 7 times, beat them in close games maybe 2x and lose once. It was unfortunate that we made the mistakes we made when they happened to have that one nearly perfect game. Syracuse beat them by 25 - that should tell you something and it's not that Syracuse just matches up better or plays that much better defense than we do.

 

[MSUMatt28]

I said they weren't the better team and they're not the better team, they were just better that night. My point is that it's ridiculous to say if MTSU "played that well 10 times" because there is no chance they shoot the ball >2 standard deviations above average 10 times. If we played them 10 times, we'd beat them 9 times because on average they'd shoot 39% and 45% from the field (at best and probably lower actually because they achieved that average against inferior opposition). If we played them 10 times the breakdown would probably be something like this - run them out of the gym 7 times, beat them in close games maybe 2x and lose once. It was unfortunate that we made the mistakes we made when they happened to have that one nearly perfect game. Syracuse beat them by 25 - that should tell you something and it's not that Syracuse just matches up better or plays that much better defense than we do.

The thing that was so weird about that game was how far out of left field it came from. There have been MSU teams in the past that sometimes played down to competition and made games tougher/uglier than they needed to be (though usually earlier in seasons). However, this team had basically overwhelmed every lesser opponent they had played all season, save for the home game vs Nebraska and the game vs Oakland with Denzel out. This team had also won 13 out of 14 and seemed to be peaking.

Certainly MSU played horribly for whatever reason, and maybe made the fatal mistake of looking ahead. But just based on what happened next vs Syracuse, it seems MTSU played the game of it's life. Compare that to say a team like Stephen F. Austin who as a 14 appeared to be a legitimately good team that was underseeded.

 

[Spartanmack]

The thing that was so weird about that game was how far out of left field it came from. There have been MSU teams in the past that sometimes played down to competition and made games tougher/uglier than they needed to be (though usually earlier in seasons). However, this team had basically overwhelmed every lesser opponent they had played all season, save for the home game vs Nebraska and the game vs Oakland with Denzel out. This team had also won 13 out of 14 and seemed to be peaking.

Certainly MSU played horribly for whatever reason, and maybe made the fatal mistake of looking ahead. But just based on what happened next vs Syracuse, it seems MTSU played the game of it's life. Compare that to say a team like Stephen F. Austin who as a 14 appeared to be a legitimately good team that was underseeded.

I thought they were peaking as well but i felt differently after the BTT where we played poorly in the second half of every game. Don't get me wrong, I NEVER thought for a second we'd lose to MTSU - that was a total surprise. I'm just saying the BTT gave me pause and I was worried that we'd have an uninspired performance against a Villanova or KU or something like that.