NBA Draft lottery odds

[johnny2x2x]

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

They changed it, each other the 3 worst teams now has a 14% chance at #1, it uses to be higher. Pistons right now 3rd worst, they'd have a 14% chance at #1, but almost a 50% chance of picking 5th to 7th. Really hope Orlando and Houston win a couple more games, in that scenario 5th would be the worst the Pistons can pick.

I think the draft lottery is terrible now, the worst teams should have a much better shot to get a top 3 pick than they do.

 

[grandy]

Remaining Schedules

ORL - TOR, NYK, CLE, CHA, MIA
HOU - SAC, MIN, BRK, TOR, ATL
DET - PHI x2, OKC, IND, DAL, MIL
OKC - DET, PHO, POR, UTA, LAK, LAC

I don't see more than 1 or 2 wins for any of these teams.

Friday against OKC is an absolute must lose, would certainly help secure at least a bottom 3 record.

 

[503]

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

They changed it, each other the 3 worst teams now has a 14% chance at #1, it uses to be higher. Pistons right now 3rd worst, they'd have a 14% chance at #1, but almost a 50% chance of picking 5th to 7th. Really hope Orlando and Houston win a couple more games, in that scenario 5th would be the worst the Pistons can pick.

I think the draft lottery is terrible now, the worst teams should have a much better shot to get a top 3 pick than they do.

I hate any system that encourages and awards tanking. NBA is a professional sport and the best product should always be showcased.

I wouldn?t mind a tournament where the bottom 7 teams have to win to secure the higher pick. You win the end of year tournament with the bottom 7 or whatever number of teams you choose and get the #1 pick. All other lottery teams participate in a play in to make playoffs.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

They changed it, each other the 3 worst teams now has a 14% chance at #1, it uses to be higher. Pistons right now 3rd worst, they'd have a 14% chance at #1, but almost a 50% chance of picking 5th to 7th. Really hope Orlando and Houston win a couple more games, in that scenario 5th would be the worst the Pistons can pick

I think the draft lottery is terrible now, the worst teams should have a much better shot to get a top 3 pick than they do.

The whole point in changing the odds was to reduce tanking. Hard to say how much impact that has had, but the idea was sound. Also, much as our team is in position to need lottery luck, I'm not the biggest fan of rewarding the worst (very often synonymous with worst-run) teams. Unlike the NFL (no lottery), one great player can be the difference between playoffs and the worst record in the league.

If you knew ahead of time that a LeBron was waiting for the worst team, you'd have half the league trying to throw games all year. It would be an absolute debacle of a year.

 

[grandy]

Remaining Schedules

ORL - TOR (L), NYK (L), CLE, CHA, MIA
HOU - SAC (L), MIN(L), BRK, TOR, ATL
DET - PHI (W), OKC (W), IND (W), DAL, MIL, PHI
OKC - DET (L), PHO (W), POR, UTA, LAK, LAC

OKC somehow beat the Suns, which keeps the Pistons in the 3 spot for now

Pacers can still work their way ahead of Detroit, they have a tough 3 games left.

IND - PHI, PHI, BRK


No chance of finishing ahead of HOU/ORL, best case scenario is a tie.

One more loss will guarantee at least a tie for 5th, two losses guarantees 4th or better. Three wins with three Indiana losses could leave the Pistons alone in 5th.


Overall, finishing 4th instead of 1-3 gives a 4% lower chance of a top 4 pick (48.1% instead of 52.1%) with a possibility of falling back to 8th if unlucky (and a higher chance of 7th).

Obviously want to see them finish 3rd, looks like it will come down to them and OKC for 3/4, not thrilled about that. Hopefully the Blazers find a way to out-tank OKC on Tuesday.

 

[tomdalton22]

so based on the lottery, add 3 to your position to last place and that is the worst position you can pick.

Pistons finish with the 3rd worst record and the worst case scenario would be picking 6th?
Finish 4th and it's 7th

 

[grandy]

so based on the lottery, add 3 to your position to last place and that is the worst position you can pick.

Pistons finish with the 3rd worst record and the worst case scenario would be picking 6th?
Finish 4th and it's 7th

Add 4. 3rd worst case is 7th, 4th is 8th. Gets a bit wonky beyond 5 as teams will still have a top 4 chance, but have no chance of any other pick ahead of their slot.

https://tankathon.com/pick_odds

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

so based on the lottery, add 3 to your position to last place and that is the worst position you can pick.

Pistons finish with the 3rd worst record and the worst case scenario would be picking 6th?
Finish 4th and it's 7th

Actually, there lottery changed a couple years ago. Now the top 4 picks are up for grabs. So the lowest a team can pick is their reverse standing plus 4. The Pistons have the 3rd worst record right now, but are essentially tired with OKC. Ties are broken by coin flip, so without winning another game, we might still end up 4th. At which point the lowest we could pick is 8th.

 

[tomdalton22]

thanks for the update. I didn't realize they changed it from 3 to 4.

Looking at the tankathon odds, they have a 52% chance of picking in the top 4 and 48% chance from 5-7

 

[grandy]

Was a fairly good night for the Pistons

OKC and Orlando won
Pacers lost

Rockets lost and are now guaranteed top 2 odds, also knocks Pistons out of a tie scenario at 1


ORL - CLE (W), CHA, MIA
DET - IND (W), DAL, MIL, PHI
OKC - POR (W), UTA, LAK, LAC
IND - PHI (L), PHI, BRK

Pistons losing out guarantees them the 3 slot now (technically have a shot at a tie for 2, but would require the Magic winning out).

OKC probably has the ?easiest? schedule, Lakers eliminated and Clippers locked in. Everyone else is still playing for playoff seeding.

 

[grandy]

Worst case scenario now is a tie for 5th, which could become a tie for 4th if OKC wins tonight.

 

[biggunsbob]

Okc lost

https://www.tankathon.com/

 

[biggunsbob]

So best Is we get the top pick again. What?s the Furthest we could fall too ?

 

[grandy]

So best Is we get the top pick again. What?s the Furthest we could fall too ?

At the 3 spot, there?s a 7% chance of picking 7th.

The only way this happens is if Houston, Orlando, and Detroit lose out on a top 4 pick.

 

[biggunsbob]

At the 3 spot, there?s a 7% chance of picking 7th.

The only way this happens is if Houston, Orlando, and Detroit lose out on a top 4 pick.

Ok thanks G. Appreciate it !

I feel this draft is better then last years draft. I?d be happy with any of the top five guys
Smith, Holmgren, Banchero, Ivey, or Murray.

My sleeper pick is the kid from Nebraska Bryce Mcgowens. I thought the kid was pretty darn good. Who do you guys like? I am just not sure on Holmgren. He is so darn skinny.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Is there a Cade Cunningham pick in this draft? Maybe a really good PG? Or SG and Cade can run the point at all times?

 

[grandy]

Is there a Cade Cunningham pick in this draft? Maybe a really good PG? Or SG and Cade can run the point at all times?

Probably looking at Jaden Ivey, Bennedict Mathurin, or Shaedon Sharpe (if he declares). Know very little about college bball but I don?t think any of those guys are on Cade?s draft level. Ivey might be the closest but from the concerns I?ve read I?m not sure how well his game translates to the next level. Sharpe is an unknown since he hasn?t played a game since high school. Don?t know anything about Mathurin.

 

[tomdalton22]

I don't think they need to go with a PG. Cade is a PG and they took Hayes #7 who is also a PG.

 

[grandy]

I don't think they need to go with a PG. Cade is a PG and they took Hayes #7 who is also a PG.

Just browsing mocks I don?t even see too many pure PGs going high, the guys I mentioned above are mostly listed as SGs.

I agree though, I don?t really see a scenario where a guard would be the right pick unless the Pistons are picking 6th/7th and someone like Ivey falls to them. This team needs front court help, I see guys like Stewart and Bagley as more fringe-starter/quality bench players on any halfway decent team. Jerami Grant might not even be on the team come draft night. Olynyk is just a bench vet. I don?t see Garza being any good in the NBA.

I would be happy with one of Jabari Smith, Paolo, or Chet. Keegan Murray might be an option if the Pistons get screwed in the lottery.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Just FYI, but this years draft is considered very weak. Most every analyst I've seen said the top prospect this years wouldn't have cracked the top 5 last year. Obviously guys always surprise, but that doesn't seem crazy. Last year has three guys who look like future stars or superstars (Cade, Mobley, and Barnes). There are at least three really high end starters, possibly all stars (Green, Giddey and Wagner). And Herbert Jones is already a starter level 3 and D guy. 2021 is already looking like an historic level class (and even at the time it was booked as being great).

2022 by all accounts is the opposite. The guys at the top seem to all have significant questions (Chet's weight/strength, Jabari's ball handling, Ivey's vision/outside shot, Paolo's defense/effort). And it's not a deep draft at all. Get passed the top 10, and you're picking the best old guy or the least bad young guy.

That said, I'd absolutely love Jabari (elite shooter with good defense) or Chet (elite rim protector who can shoot and jump as well as any big man on the roster). They may not be franchise guys, but they'd help Cade and keep the team on the right path.