NBA Draft lottery odds

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Orlando lost tonight, locking Detroit out of to 2 of odds. Not unexpected, just hoping we can lose out too should a tie with OKC or Indy.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Probably looking at Jaden Ivey, Bennedict Mathurin, or Shaedon Sharpe (if he declares). Know very little about college bball but I don?t think any of those guys are on Cade?s draft level. Ivey might be the closest but from the concerns I?ve read I?m not sure how well his game translates to the next level. Sharpe is an unknown since he hasn?t played a game since high school. Don?t know anything about Mathurin.

Why I asked I know very little myself. Thanks.

 

[tomdalton22]

Why I asked I know very little myself. Thanks.

I'm right there with you. I don't know much about any of these guys other than what I read.

 

[grandy]

Pistons secure a top 4 spot with the loss tonight.

Need either a loss to Philly on Sunday or one more OKC win to secure the #3 odds.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Pistons secure a top 4 spot with the loss tonight.

Need either a loss to Philly on Sunday or one more OKC win to secure the #3 odds.

Top 3 have same odds so really they'd have same chance as the two worse teams.

 

[grandy]

Top 3 have same odds so really they'd have same chance as the two worse teams.

Yup. The only difference is an outside chance at picking 7th (if Houston and Orlando don't win a lottery pick).

The odds and number of lottery picks have changed over the years, but here's some recent history on the #3 slot. 2019-present is current odds.

2021 - 5th
2020 - 1st
2019 - 6th
2018 - 5th
2017 - 2nd
2016 - 3rd
2015 - 3rd
2014 - 4th
2013 - 1st
2012 - 4th

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_results

 

[grandy]

Pistons lock up #3 odds with the loss. Lottery is May 17th.

Odds will be
1 - 14%
2 - 13.4%
3 - 12.7%
4 - 12%

Lottery total - 52.1%

5 - 14.8%
6 - 26%
7 - 7%

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Well, I'll be crossing my fingers for luck. I mentioned before, but this is considered a pretty weak class. That doesn't mean nobody will be any good, moreso that you shouldn't be expecting a LeBron, Steph, Giannis, or Luka. This team could still make massive improvements with a solid #2 scorer, defensive anchor, or just an elite shooter. And guys like that are available.

Even the 7th pick should be a considerable asset. There's really no position we couldn't reasonably upgrade (Cade could play either guard position, Bey could play either forward, and Stewart isn't irreplaceable).

 

[Mitchrapp]

I was curious who is the GM and who owns this team? Seems something I'd know but apparently I'm blank. Thanks.

 

[grandy]

Well, I'll be crossing my fingers for luck. I mentioned before, but this is considered a pretty weak class. That doesn't mean nobody will be any good, moreso that you shouldn't be expecting a LeBron, Steph, Giannis, or Luka. This team could still make massive improvements with a solid #2 scorer, defensive anchor, or just an elite shooter. And guys like that are available.

Even the 7th pick should be a considerable asset. There's really no position we couldn't reasonably upgrade (Cade could play either guard position, Bey could play either forward, and Stewart isn't irreplaceable).

I agree. I think they could get a nice high end role player wherever they pick. Still early in the rebuild and there are a lot of holes to fill.

I?d say at least 3 out of 5 starting roles still need to be filled (assuming Grant won?t be here long-term). Killian and Stew could still develop into good players but I see them more as depth pieces. Also undecided on Bey, he?ll be a starter on this team for now, showed flashes but is not the most consistent.

Griffin?s money is coming off the books so they should have some cap space to play around with in free agency.

I don?t want to paint too bleak of a picture but there?s still a lot of work to do with this roster. I would not be surprised if we?re back here next year talking about lottery odds again. Optimistically, I could see a play-in push in 23-24 if things go well.

 

[tomdalton22]

I agree. I think they could get a nice high end role player wherever they pick. Still early in the rebuild and there are a lot of holes to fill.

I?d say at least 3 out of 5 starting roles still need to be filled (assuming Grant won?t be here long-term). Killian and Stew could still develop into good players but I see them more as depth pieces. Also undecided on Bey, he?ll be a starter on this team for now, showed flashes but is not the most consistent.

Griffin?s money is coming off the books so they should have some cap space to play around with in free agency.

I don?t want to paint too bleak of a picture but there?s still a lot of work to do with this roster. I would not be surprised if we?re back here next year talking about lottery odds again. Optimistically, I could see a play-in push in 23-24 if things go well.

I agree 100%. I'm not sold on Bey either. He is too inefficient of a scorer and way too streaky. If Grant leaves they need to add two quality starters on this roster. I don't see a team that contends for the playoffs with Bey and Stewart as starters unless they have 3 really good players filling out the other 3 spots. Right now, it looks like they only have one. What to do with Bagley and Grant is interesting. I think they probably move on from Grant if they can get the right return. I don't see him here long term. Bagley is also interesting. He seems to be an efficient scorer and can rebound. Not sure if he's a good defender. Depending on the price, he could be a player to extend.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I like Bagley. I hope they bring him back.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

I like Bagley. I hope they bring him back.

If he'll take backup money, I'm for it. But he only had one actual skill - athletic finishing around the basket. He can't create, can't shoot, can't defend the basket, and can't guard on the perimeter. He's down enough to continue getting a shot, but you don't impact your cap for such replaceable skill.

 

[tomdalton22]

If he'll take backup money, I'm for it. But he only had one actual skill - athletic finishing around the basket. He can't create, can't shoot, can't defend the basket, and can't guard on the perimeter. He's down enough to continue getting a shot, but you don't impact your cap for such replaceable skill.

I don't know if it's a replaceable skill...he seems to be the only guy on the Pistons that can finish around the basket

 

[grandy]

I would extend the qualifying offer to Bagley, if they don't plan on needing that money in free agency. Give him an offseason with the team and coaches and see what they can do with him. No need to lock themselves into a long term contract. If some team wants to pay him more, I have no problem letting him go.

 

[grandy]

Pistons pick 5th, was hoping to get in the top 4, but at least they didn't fall to 7.

Probably looking at Sharpe, Ivey, or Murray.

 

[biggunsbob]

Back to getting fucked in the lottery.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

This was basically a coin flip, didn't lose out much at all. Ivey or Sharpe would be fantastic. Even Murray would fill a huge need. It also helps that Portland fell a spot, as they may be more willing to trade the pick for Grant.

Just a reminder, this is a BAD team, with very little talent. Landing Ivey/Sharpe/Murray may be ideal, as it allows us to get another high end talent next year. 2023 has some franchise level talents at the top, wouldn't be the worst thing to have over more bad record.

 

[tomdalton22]

From what I read, there is a drop off after #4?

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

From what I read, there is a drop off after #4?

The top tier is generally considered Chet, Jabari, Paolo, and Ivey. So yes, there may be a drop off. Sharpe was actually considered the top high school prospect coming in, but he never played at Kentucky. So he may actually be in that top tier as well (just harder to judge). You could have said the same last year as well, with Suggs widely considered the 4th best player (over Barnes). The draft isn't an exact science, but a top 5 pick is still a huge value. The best players are most often picked in the top 5. We've gotta hope the scouts know their stuff, and that we get the guy we want.

There's no particular ndication right now that they 4th pick is much better than the 5th.