Over under for commits in the next week

[Spartanmack]

First, we played tremendous defense against UVA. If we played like that against anyone we'd have a chance to win. Just because the box score doest have gaudy offensive numbers doesn't mean they didn't play well. Also, if the Duke game was called the way Virginia was we'd have a much better chance of winning.

As for our run, you can basically call anyone's tourney run a fluke if they didn't lose to duke early if you apply that logic. We were under seeded as a 7 and had to play a 30-3 team early on and won.

It's one thing to play defense like that against a smaller, much less offensive team - it's entirely another thing to do it against dook. Also, it wasn't all Spartan D - UVA couldn't buy a basket. They had 15 offensive rebounds but probably missed as many layups as we did in the KU game. UVA out-rebounded us but shot 30% from the field and 12% from 3 - again, they couldn't buy a basket. If we play that exact game against dook - lose the rebounding battle, TOs and shoot 43% - we loose 80 maybe 90% of the time. I think we actually played much better against Louisville - Louisville wasn't as good this year but they played better than they had most of the year - Blackshear in particular. He probably under performed expectations more than Dawson over his career but he was huge in the tourney this year.

The run wasn't all luck - the OK and Louisville games were probably close to coin tosses that we happened to win. But we were definitely lucky to not have faced dook in the second round. They would have kicked the crap out of us then instead of the Final Four.

 

[Spartanmack]

When the game is called in their favor Duke is really hard to beat.

The officiating was horrible but if they calls were even, we probably lose by 10 instead of 20.

 

[Sbee]

It's one thing to play defense like that against a smaller, much less offensive team - it's entirely another thing to do it against dook. Also, it wasn't all Spartan D - UVA couldn't buy a basket. They had 15 offensive rebounds but probably missed as many layups as we did in the KU game. UVA out-rebounded us but shot 30% from the field and 12% from 3 - again, they couldn't buy a basket. If we play that exact game against dook - lose the rebounding battle, TOs and shoot 43% - we loose 80 maybe 90% of the time. I think we actually played much better against Louisville - Louisville wasn't as good this year but they played better than they had most of the year - Blackshear in particular. He probably under performed expectations more than Dawson over his career but he was huge in the tourney this year.

The run wasn't all luck - the OK and Louisville games were probably close to coin tosses that we happened to win. But we were definitely lucky to not have faced dook in the second round. They would have kicked the crap out of us then instead of the Final Four.

I think every team that made the sweet 16 could say the same thing

 

[Sbee]

The officiating was horrible but if they calls were even, we probably lose by 10 instead of 20.

we would have lost most likely but the way the game was called meant that our chances of winning went from 35% to 0%

 

[MSUMatt28]

It's one thing to play defense like that against a smaller, much less offensive team - it's entirely another thing to do it against dook. Also, it wasn't all Spartan D - UVA couldn't buy a basket. They had 15 offensive rebounds but probably missed as many layups as we did in the KU game. UVA out-rebounded us but shot 30% from the field and 12% from 3 - again, they couldn't buy a basket. If we play that exact game against dook - lose the rebounding battle, TOs and shoot 43% - we loose 80 maybe 90% of the time. I think we actually played much better against Louisville - Louisville wasn't as good this year but they played better than they had most of the year - Blackshear in particular. He probably under performed expectations more than Dawson over his career but he was huge in the tourney this year.

The run wasn't all luck - the OK and Louisville games were probably close to coin tosses that we happened to win. But we were definitely lucky to not have faced dook in the second round. They would have kicked the crap out of us then instead of the Final Four.

There are all kinds of things in the tourney that can work for or against you in the luck department. We were unlucky in 2014 to face UConn with a huge pro-UConn crowd. We were a little lucky I suppose this year to face a 2 seed that wasn't playing as well as another high seed.

 

[Spartanmack]

we would have lost most likely but the way the game was called meant that our chances of winning went from 35% to 0%

Our chances of beating dook were nowhere near 35%. 1 in 5 at best. And not every team can say they were lucky to not face dook in the 2nd round. Most of them had the odds in their favor as there aren't many plausible, likely scenarios where they all could have faced dook in the second round. dook wasn't going any lower than a 2 but UVA could have easily gotten the 1 making them the 2 in the east given their records and accomplishments throughout the season. The ACC had the only 1-2 combo from the same conference and the team that got the 2 actually won the conference and had a better overall record to boot.

Sometimes teams that don't belong in the Final Four make it to the Final Four. This year, I think we were one of those teams. I know it's blasphemy to idiots like johnnybukake who think an improbable tournament run is validation of greatness and anyone who thinks otherwise isn't a true fan. Having a different perspective doesn't make me any less of a fan. If anything, it makes me more objective. In some ways it's more fun to see a team w/ low expectations outperform - at least up until they get steamrolled by a better team in a shitty, almost unwatchable game. It's better than watching a team with high expectations under perform like we did the previous year.

 

[Spartanmack]

There are all kinds of things in the tourney that can work for or against you in the luck department. We were unlucky in 2014 to face UConn with a huge pro-UConn crowd. We were a little lucky I suppose this year to face a 2 seed that wasn't playing as well as another high seed.

I completely agree. Luck, good or bad is definitely a part of just about any tournament run. My point is that if we were the unlucky ones, instead of UVA, we easily could have lost in the 2nd round. Looking at the evidence, it basically came down to a coin toss between dook and uva for the 1 seed.

 

[MSUMatt28]

I completely agree. Luck, good or bad is definitely a part of just about any tournament run. My point is that if we were the unlucky ones, instead of UVA, we easily could have lost in the 2nd round. Looking at the evidence, it basically came down to a coin toss between dook and uva for the 1 seed.

I don't know if being screwed in your seed can be considered unlucky, but if we get the 6 seed (or better) that everyone pegged us for prior to the tournament, then we don't face Duke that early regardless.