Pistons 95 Jazz 92 Final

[Mitchrapp]

haha...AD would probably be there for a while!

AD needs to add 15% to his FT percentage. 50% should be the worst an NBA player shoots from the line.

Maybe but 45% for a season is somewhat in line with some of the poor free throw shooters in history.

 

[tomdalton22]

Maybe but 45% for a season is somewhat in line with some of the poor free throw shooters in history.

I did a quick google search and it turns out that Ben Wallace is considered to be the worst free throw shooter in NBA history. He shot 41% from the line. Shaq was also one of the worst all time and he shot 53%. Wilt was also considered to be terrible and he shot 51%. Over the past 3 seasons there are only 2 players in the NBA that have shot below 50%...AD and Deandre Jordan.

I think 50% should be the minimum that should be expected.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I did a quick google search and it turns out that Ben Wallace is considered to be the worst free throw shooter in NBA history. He shot 41% from the line. Shaq was also one of the worst all time and he shot 53%. Wilt was also considered to be terrible and he shot 51%. Over the past 3 seasons there are only 2 players in the NBA that have shot below 50%...AD and Deandre Jordan.

I think 50% should be the minimum that should be expected.

I agree but plenty of players shot near 45% for a season. I was just referring he get to 45% for a season.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

A few things.

First, basketball is NOT the most streaky sport, and it's not even close. Baseball is the most streaky, the most luck-based. This is due to the fact that Baseball's whole scoring system is based on stringing together multiple low chance successes. Further, Basketball is actually the MOST consistent sport of all the major American sports. Records and winning is the LEAST luck-based due to the large number of possessions and the relatively even schedules by all teams.

Second, how much Andre needs to improve his free throw shooting is more complicated than just an arbitrary feeling for what's good enough. Some stats: Detroit averages 1.02 points per possession, Drummond himself shoots 51.7% from the floor, and league average shooting efficiency is about 54% TS. Sending Drummond to the free throw line in general has an expected outcome of .69 points (in intentional foul situations this actually drops to about .5 expected points). So, for Drummond's free throws to be no less valuable than a regular possession, he would need to hit them at roughly 51%. For Drummond's free throws to be at least as good of a shot as a non-fouled shot, he'd need to hit roughly 52%. And here's the bigger one: if Drummond wanted to score at league average efficiency, he'd need to hit 55% of this free throws.

Right now, Drummond is actually a wildly inefficient scorer for a big man. He has only one real scoring skill, which is the dunk. That's a wonderful shot, but exclusive dunkers like Drummond need to shoot a lot better than 51% from the floor (~60%). In lieu of that (much of that is Stan trying to get him to expand his skillset), he simply HAS TO hit more free throws. And in an interesting twist, just shooting 51, 52, or 55% from the line has diminishing returns, because if Drummond hit more of his shots he wouldn't get to the line as much. For Drummond to become the truly dominant player we need him to be to contend, Drummond would need to be an efficient scorer - requiring both an increase to FG% and FT%. A 16% increase to Drummond's FT% should be the bare minimum, and that alone would simply stop making him an intentional foul target rather than actually improving the offense.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Basketball is common for 10-1 point streaks, 18-5 etc. Baseball is like 2-1, and then maybe the game finishes 3-1. How is that streaky. And apparently you don't understand the definition of streaky.

 

[tomdalton22]

A few things.

First, basketball is NOT the most streaky sport, and it's not even close. Baseball is the most streaky, the most luck-based. This is due to the fact that Baseball's whole scoring system is based on stringing together multiple low chance successes. Further, Basketball is actually the MOST consistent sport of all the major American sports. Records and winning is the LEAST luck-based due to the large number of possessions and the relatively even schedules by all teams.

Second, how much Andre needs to improve his free throw shooting is more complicated than just an arbitrary feeling for what's good enough. Some stats: Detroit averages 1.02 points per possession, Drummond himself shoots 51.7% from the floor, and league average shooting efficiency is about 54% TS. Sending Drummond to the free throw line in general has an expected outcome of .69 points (in intentional foul situations this actually drops to about .5 expected points). So, for Drummond's free throws to be no less valuable than a regular possession, he would need to hit them at roughly 51%. For Drummond's free throws to be at least as good of a shot as a non-fouled shot, he'd need to hit roughly 52%. And here's the bigger one: if Drummond wanted to score at league average efficiency, he'd need to hit 55% of this free throws.

Right now, Drummond is actually a wildly inefficient scorer for a big man. He has only one real scoring skill, which is the dunk. That's a wonderful shot, but exclusive dunkers like Drummond need to shoot a lot better than 51% from the floor (~60%). In lieu of that (much of that is Stan trying to get him to expand his skillset), he simply HAS TO hit more free throws. And in an interesting twist, just shooting 51, 52, or 55% from the line has diminishing returns, because if Drummond hit more of his shots he wouldn't get to the line as much. For Drummond to become the truly dominant player we need him to be to contend, Drummond would need to be an efficient scorer - requiring both an increase to FG% and FT%. A 16% increase to Drummond's FT% should be the bare minimum, and that alone would simply stop making him an intentional foul target rather than actually improving the offense.

good perspective. Looking at the two worst FT shooters in the league and they are DeAndre Jordan and AD. The difference is Jordan shoots 72% from the field and AD is at 52%. On a side note...I wonder why Jordan doesn't take more than 6 shots a game?

 

[Mitchrapp]

72% is not common. It won't continue to happen. Maybe if he wasn't fouled so much he'd shoot better than 52%. And 6 shots a game? Let him shoot 15, see how his % is then?

 

[tomdalton22]

72% is not common. It won't continue to happen. Maybe if he wasn't fouled so much he'd shoot better than 52%. And 6 shots a game? Let him shoot 15, see how his % is then?

they both get fouled at about the same rate (AD takes 7.8 FTs a game and Jordan takes 7.7. Both take almost all of their FG attempts from the paint. My guess is Jordan's percentage would go down some but not too much (his career FG% is 67%. I think he doesn't take many shots because he isn't a focal point of the offense due them having Chris Paul, Griffin, JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford taking most of the shots.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Basketball is common for 10-1 point streaks, 18-5 etc. Baseball is like 2-1, and then maybe the game finishes 3-1. How is that streaky. And apparently you don't understand the definition of streaky.

It's a probability and volume issue. Baseball offense is a low-probability endeavor coupled with an artificially limited number of opportunities. Basketball is the opposite, with more possessions, greater success rates, and higher point values.

Consider that the best offense in baseball put a man on base 34% of the time. Now consider that the worst offense in the NBA scores roughly 50% of the time. Baseball artificially limits teams to 27 outs (misses), while even the slowest paced NBA team in the league averages almost 40 misses (not counting free throws which resulted from a miss). Some quick math can tell us that the best offense in baseball gets about 36 at-bats per game, while the NBA stats page tells us the slowest team in basketball gets over 93 possessions.

The best offense in baseball has a lower chance of scoring a single run than the worst NBA team would have scoring on 4 straight possessions (at least 8 points), and that's in ideal conditions for the baseball team (assuming they don't run out of outs before they get the RBI). Any "streak" of scoring in baseball accounting for more than 2 total runs is less likely than a 12-0 run in basketball. In a game with so many more chances (almost 190 total possessions per game), there's more opportunity for variation. That doesn't make the variation more likely. It's not a game of streaks, it's simply a much longer (possession-wise, not time-wise) game.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Jordan is shooting much higher than is reasonable in another offense. He has one of the best PGs in the game setting him up and a number of quality shooters around him (including the PG making the passes). He's not a high usage player (as Mitch said) like Drummond. He takes less shots because the team is more selective with when he can make it. They don't force feed him like we do Drummond.

 

[biggunsbob]

Jordan is shooting much higher than is reasonable in another offense. He has one of the best PGs in the game setting him up and a number of quality shooters around him (including the PG making the passes). He's not a high usage player (as Mitch said) like Drummond. He takes less shots because the team is more selective with when he can make it. They don't force feed him like we do Drummond.

Just great points E. Fantastic stuff. I am glad after 6 seasons that we have a shot at the playoffs again. It sure would be nice if AD could hit his free throws better.

 

[Mitchrapp]

It's a probability and volume issue. Baseball offense is a low-probability endeavor coupled with an artificially limited number of opportunities. Basketball is the opposite, with more possessions, greater success rates, and higher point values.

Consider that the best offense in baseball put a man on base 34% of the time. Now consider that the worst offense in the NBA scores roughly 50% of the time. Baseball artificially limits teams to 27 outs (misses), while even the slowest paced NBA team in the league averages almost 40 misses (not counting free throws which resulted from a miss). Some quick math can tell us that the best offense in baseball gets about 36 at-bats per game, while the NBA stats page tells us the slowest team in basketball gets over 93 possessions.

The best offense in baseball has a lower chance of scoring a single run than the worst NBA team would have scoring on 4 straight possessions (at least 8 points), and that's in ideal conditions for the baseball team (assuming they don't run out of outs before they get the RBI). Any "streak" of scoring in baseball accounting for more than 2 total runs is less likely than a 12-0 run in basketball. In a game with so many more chances (almost 190 total possessions per game), there's more opportunity for variation. That doesn't make the variation more likely. It's not a game of streaks, it's simply a much longer (possession-wise, not time-wise) game.

I think we're on the wrong page here. It was just as simple as 12-15 point leads to nail biters etc happen often. You get runs in every NBA game, for example. That doesn't happen in baseball.

As you said "Any "streak" of scoring in baseball accounting for more than 2 total runs is less likely than a 12-0 run in basketball." That's all I meant. Nothing more. It wasn't about variation, probability, or much longer possession wise.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

I think we're on the wrong page here. It was just as simple as 12-15 point leads to nail biters etc happen often. You get runs in every NBA game, for example. That doesn't happen in baseball.

As you said "Any "streak" of scoring in baseball accounting for more than 2 total runs is less likely than a 12-0 run in basketball." That's all I meant. Nothing more. It wasn't about variation, probability, or much longer possession wise.

Sorry if I went overboard then.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Sorry if I went overboard then.

It was a lot of good information just not in line of what my discussion was about. Thanks.